Dynasty Stock Market: Tight End Value

Ryan McDowell

cookThe Dynasty Stock Market returns for the 2013 regular season. While I hope I was able to share some valuable information with you last season, I learned plenty along the way. Looking back at the 2012 series of Stock Market articles has given me a lot of insight about my team building strategy and some general dynasty philosophies. For example, I began last season’s series with “Price Checks,” which took a deeper look at players rising and falling in my rankings. An article suggesting some dynasty buys and sells followed that up in week two. While I am proud of this work, I noticed as I re-read that, in some cases, I jumped the gun. In other cases, I stuck by “my guys” for too long. In any account, to enjoy success in dynasty football, you must watch as many games as possible and trust what you see. Also, you must be willing to adjust and not afraid of changing your mind, or admitting you were wrong.

This season, before I address any potential buys and sells, I wanted to dig deeper into each position. Through this, I will discuss players that are rising and falling in my rankings along with some early season observations about the position as a whole and individual players.

Let’s begin with the position that has undergone the greatest change from a season ago, the tight ends. For years, the tight end position was an afterthought to the fantasy community. Tight ends were predominantly used as blockers and would occasionally be used as a red zone target. They were similar to kickers in that it was nearly impossible to predict their week-to-week production.

In the past ten to fifteen years, tight ends have been used more as an offensive weapon and the term “move tight end” now makes dynasty owners’ mouths water. Players like Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates and Jimmy Graham have truly changed the outlook of the tight end position as a whole. The position has been in the spotlight even more the past year thanks to the constant drama and unbelievable stories of Patriots’ tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

Merely months ago, it looked as if dynasty owners had a clear top tier made up of three tight ends: Gronkowski, Hernandez and the Saints’ Graham. That has been completely flipped upside down following the arrest of Hernandez and the injury and multiple surgical procedures undergone by Gronkowski. For now, Graham stands alone, but there are plenty of other tight ends, young and old, who seem eager to join him at the top of the dynasty tight end rankings. The infusion of some young tight ends stepping up early in the season, not to mention the record setting fantasy production from the tight end position in general, has shaken up my rankings and the general value of many players. Here’s a look at some of those players.

Jimmy Graham, TE NO
Rob Gronkowski, TE NE

Despite a relatively quiet week one, Graham remains my top tight end and should still be considered the top option in the Saints offense. Considering I am a dynasty owner who often values youth, I can easily see Graham falling down a spot once Gronkowski returns. If you are a Graham owner, there is almost no reason to consider dealing him, unless you are getting Gronkowski in return. For now, Graham is the best combination of safe production and long-term upside.

Most dynasty owners seem to still view Gronkowski as a top two tight end, which is well deserved based on his ridiculous production when he’s been active. The latest reports have Gronkowski back by week three and as I mentioned, he would be consider 1B to Graham’s 1A as soon as he hits the field. The time to buy low on Gronkowski is long gone, especially considering the early struggles of the New England offense.

What follows Graham and Gronkowski is a second tier that is deep and filled with many types of players. Let’s take a look!

Tony Gonzalez, TE ATL

As has often been the case throughout his career, Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez is on a tier of his own. For the majority of his playing time with the Chiefs and the Falcons, that has been due to his outstanding play on the field, which has resulted in ten seasons in which Gonzalez finished among the top three fantasy tight ends. He will go down as one of, if not the best tight end in NFL history. But for now, he has fifteen regular season games left, and he has presented dynasty owners with quite a conundrum. Gonzalez is the single toughest player to place a dynasty value on right now due to the combination of his impending retirement and his continued excellent play on the field. The decision will become much clearer as the season wears on. If you own him and are contending for a playoff berth or a championship, keep him. If you drop out of the playoff race, or it becomes clear you are in need of a rebuild, move him for anything you can get. Anything.

Jason Witten, TE DAL
Vernon Davis, TE SF
Greg Olsen, TE CAR
Owen Daniels, TE HOU

This group of veteran tight ends range in value from TE3 to TE16 in our consensus dynasty rankings – this goes to show you how deep that second tier of tight ends really is. While Cowboys tight end Jason Witten is the most successful and the most valuable of this group of players, any of these are solid options for teams built to win now. While the necessity to flip these players for future value is not as high as it is with Gonzalez, I would certainly explore trading one of these for a younger tight end or a draft pick if my team is not a contender this season. On the other hand, if your playoff contender features a hole at tight end, a player like Greg Olsen or Owen Daniels would be the ideal target.

Jordan Cameron, TE CLE
Jared Cook, TE STL
Dwayne Allen, TE IND
Kyle Rudolph, TE MIN
Julius Thomas, TE DEN

The next group includes young tight ends who are now being counted on as starters for their teams. Each of these players has, at one time or another, flashed some major upside that excites fantasy owners. Of course, for the Browns’ Jordan Cameron, Broncos’ Julius Thomas and Rams’ Jared Cook, that time was in week one when all three posted career best games. Cameron and Thomas are first time starters for their original teams while Cook, of course, signed with the Rams following a four-year stint with the Tennessee Titans. Following the incredible performances by this trio, their current asking price will be off the charts. Now would not be the best time to target these players. Like every NFL player, down games will happen and that would be a better time to buy these up-and-comers.

Kyle Rudolph and Dwayne Allen had relatively quiet beginnings to the 2013 season, but both have been impressive enough in the past to command solid dynasty value. If you are looking to invest in a young tight end, which could also serve as an immediate starter for your fantasy team, you should be shopping for someone in this group. Although I had Vikings Rudolph as high as TE3 recently, I just could not ignore the putrid passing offense led by Christian Ponder any longer. While I do expect a change at quarterback sooner rather than later, with so many other tight ends performing, Rudolph could no longer maintain his high ranking.

Tyler Eifert, TE CIN
Jordan Reed, TE WAS
Ladarius Green, TE SD
Travis Kelce, TE KC
Rob Housler, TE ARZ
Coby Fleener, TE IND

This is probably my favorite group of tight ends. Each of these players is young and unproven. Some are rookies who have not had a chance to show what they can do, while others have been stuck behind veteran starters and are nearing a potential breakout. Regardless, I would be targeting each and every one of these players before their value sees a dramatic increase. If you have looked at my tight end rankings recently, you’ll see that I am especially high on the Bengals’ Tyler Eifert, the Redskins’ Jordan Reed and the Chargers’ Ladarius Green. I can’t wait for each of these three players to become weekly starters for their team. Target them in trades before this happens. If you have one of the veteran tight ends mentioned earlier, such as Greg Olsen or Owen Daniels, I would jump at the chance to “downgrade” to one of the players in this group, and you can likely get a draft pick thrown in as well.

Jermaine Gresham, TE CIN
Martellus Bennett, TE CHI
Brandon Myers, TE NYG
Brent Celek, TE PHI
Brandon Pettigrew, TE DET

This final set of tight ends includes players I would not be targeting. Each of these are veterans, yet would not be adequate starters for a contending team. If any of these guys are your top tight end, there is a high likelihood that your team will not contend for a playoff spot. If that is the case, there is little reason to carry these players on your roster. Also, low-upside players like these make poor backups. Again, if you can flip any of these players for one of the younger group above, your long-term dynasty roster becomes stronger.

There’s your look at the tight end position and the current value of some of the top players at the position. Next week, we’ll take a look at the quarterback position.

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