Mining for Paydirt: Week Two

Mining for Paydirt is a deep-sleeper article geared toward your average to larger sized leagues.  These players we focus on here are owned in less than 35% of myfantasyleague.com leagues – they are your blue collar workers.  I’m not going to give you names like Roy Helu or Joique Bell – those aren’t the droids I’m looking for.  I want the players who are on the radar of only the realest of degenerates.  Players you wouldn’t think of owning in a million and one years.  These will strictly be for injury and bye week fill-ins based on matchups and situation.  Some may stick, some won’t.  It’s the nature of the beast and I’ll be thrilled to get one or two correct a week.

Week one is always a bit of a crapshoot when you’re looking for diamonds in the rough, or in this case, pay dirt near bedrock.  Most savvy owners make the necessary preparations well before week one to account for injuries or suspensions, but sometimes, we just don’t have the depth at a particular position and need those long shot fliers.  That’s what this article is about, really.  I wouldn’t advise you start these players over proven, drafted commodities unless the matchup is completely brutal.  Even then, I’d have a tough time advocating that.

With that in mind, here’s a quick recap of how we fared in Week One:

I should have quit while I was ahead when Marlon Brown ended his night with a stat line of four receptions, 65 yards and a touchdown.  Granted, I got an assist from Jacoby Jones’ teammate, Brynden Traweck, otherwise, Brown would not have had the opportunity.  He came up big for me and salvaged any thread of hope I had heading into opening week.  Hopefully, he’s entrenched on your fake teams now and can continue to capitalize on opportunity while Jones is on the shelf.

I knew things could only go downhill from there – and they did.

Jarius Wright and Aldrick Robinson each had two targets and zero receptions.  Complete whiffs.  My deepest condolences if you had to start either.  I blame Jerome Simpson and Leonard Hankerson, of course.

Week one was a small piece of the puzzle as we go deep in Mining for Paydirt.  Let’s see who has a chance to be the Marlon Brown of week two.

Riley Cooper, WR PHI vs SD (23% owned)

Cooper played on 83 of 83 total plays for the Eagles on Monday night and was targeted six times – second most on the team.  Unfortunately, he caught just two passes for a measly 14 yards, but perhaps saved you a waiver wire add or some FAAB bucks and are able to add him for nothing.

Chip Kelly came out and said this offense needs to be even faster moving forward which can only mean fantasy goodness.  After all, volume breeds fantasy production, or so they say.

The Eagles play the Chargers this week who gave up 329 yards and three touchdowns to Matt Schaub and company.  Their two starting cornerbacks, Shareece Wright and Derek Cox, gave up a combined 14 receptions for 173 yards on 19 total targets.  Most of the Texans’ red zone damage came via the tight end position, so Brent Celek, James Casey or Zach Ertz could be sneaky plays depending on your TE1 situation as well.  Food for thought, I reckon.

If the Eagles keep the pace up on offense (they let up in the fourth quarter), Cooper will have no problems getting another 6-8 targets while the Chargers focus on stopping the run game and DeSean Jackson.

Paydirt Prediction: five receptions, 60 yards and one touchdown

Garrett Graham, TE HOU vs TEN (3% owned)

Considering adding Graham to your fake roster, then starting him in spot duty es loco, I get that.  He’s not the Texans’ starter and the Titans basically blanked the Steelers’ tight ends just one week ago.  Those tight ends were David Paulson, David Johnson and Michael Palmer.  Pure athletes.  Not to mention, the position is as deep as it’s ever been.

But what if it’s not so crazy?

Looking back to 2012, the Titans gave up the second most fantasy points to the TE position at 15.86 PPG.  Graham has a solid role within the offense and played on 59 of 80 snaps (74%).  He was targeted five times and caught four of those for 27 yards and a touchdown.  Graham ran a total of 33 routes, 13 of those came from the slot.  Last season, Graham totaled 626 snaps, while Casey totaled 609 – he’s going to be on the field even more with the departure of Casey.

Fellow tight end Owen Daniels had seven targets and caught five of those for 67 yards and two touchdowns.  Schaub targeted his tight ends nearly 50% of the time in the red zone accounting for all three of Schaub’s touchdowns… it’s science.

He might not be the sexiest Graham tight end to own, but in a PPR setting, he’ll more than serviceable this week.

Paydirt Prediction: 4 receptions, 40 yards and one touchdown

Doug Baldwin, WR SEA vs SF (< 2% owned)

I fought off evil spirits with this pick because I’m a total believer in Jermaine Kearse.  Amazingly enough, Kearse is owned in 6% of MFL’s, making Baldwin an even unlikelier contributor to find paydirt, but stay with me.

Kearse may have had the long touchdown catch, but it was Baldwin who grinded all day against the Panthers.  Baldwin played 37 of the 66 total snaps – no Seahawks receiver played more than 48 snaps (Golden Tate).  Of the 26 routes run, 21 were from the slot (most on the team).  All eight of his targets were when he was running from the slot, catching seven for 91 yards.  According to PFF, Baldwin ranks as the #18 overall (25% of team’s total snaps) wide receiver in their WR Rating statistic with a rating of 114.1.  Baldwin ranked #7 overall in yards per route run with an average of 3.50.  He also led he team in targets, receptions and yards.

But, he plays against the 49ers…

The Niners have a great defense.  Even a homer like me can admit to that, but Baldwin can make his hay against their slot cover man, Carlos Rogers.  Last season, Baldwin caught two passes for 47 yards, including a 45 yard touchdown strike against Rogers in Week 16.  Rogers is by far a better cover corner than Nmamdi Asomugha, who will most likely be matched up against Tate, but Baldwin is finally healthy and looking like the 2011 version of himself, rather than 2012.  Last week, Rogers surrendered four receptions, 79 yards and a touchdown to Randall Cobb.  Baldwin isn’t close to the talent of Cobb, but he is a great route runner with even better hands.

I expect the Hawks to let Russell Wilson either win or lose this game with his arm, so there will be plenty of targets to go around.  He threw 33 times last week and should at least match that total this week on primetime.  While I doubt Baldwin will lead the team in all three categories again this week, he will give you solid production with plenty of opportunity to find pay dirt.

Primetime Paydirt Prediction: six receptions, 85 yards and one touchdown