Dynasty Mythbusters: Week One
Often in the world of fantasy football we overreact based on what is going on at that exact moment, forgetting all of the weeks, months and years leading up to that point in time. If you’re ever on twitter during games you see many, many examples of this week in and week out. Some prime examples of this from week one were people talking about the prospects of players like David Wilson and Julius Thomas.
If you look back at past years, one of the prime examples was Kevin Ogletree after his week one blowup last year. Some teams spent nearly their entire free agency allowance on him only to see him put up next to nothing for the rest of the season even after our words of warning.
We don’t want you to make that mistake! The fantasy mythbusters series takes some inspiration from one of my favorite tv shows and I will examine a potential breakout player from the previous week. The goal is to figure out if their performance was just the tip of the iceberg or if you’re better off letting someone else spend their money on them.
I’ll be focusing largely on players who are likely on the waiver wire in most leagues or that are the end of bench players that you can target for cheap. It wouldn’t do me any good to tell you to go out and pick up Jordan Cameron since he should have been on someone’s roster months ago even though lots of websites will be championing him as a week one waiver wire addition.
Jerome Simpson, WR MIN
Week One Staline: Seven receptions on eight targets for 140 yards
Simpson just might have had the quietest 140 yard game of any player this week. Part of it is that he plays on the same team as all world running back Adrian Peterson. The other part is that while he had nice totals in the reception and yardage columns, he didn’t find the endzone this week. Is any excitement justified?
The Good: Simpson is a very athletic, very talented receiver. He measures in at 6’2” and has the ability to run a sub 4.5 second 40 yard dash with great leaping ability. He is also playing in one of the shallowest receiving groups in the entire league. Greg Jennings is locked in as the top receiver after his large free agent contract and will pull the top defender every week. Jennings is also the only veteran talent in the group outside of Simpson. Jarius Wright has flashed at times in the slot, but that is a different position from Simpson and I think that Wright is just an average talent. The only real competition comes from extremely raw Cordarrelle Patterson whom only saw the field for five snaps in week one. In other words, Simpson’s position on the field is very secure and he has the talent to take advantage of the second cornerback on most NFL teams.
The Bad: Most of the bad for Simpson can be summed up in two words, Christian Ponder. Ponder just isn’t very good. He lacks the arm strength to get the ball deep downfield and isn’t a quick enough through his progressions to take full advantage of his players. Like the rest of the Vikings, Ponder is going to cap his upside. To put it into perspective, Simpson accounted for almost 60% of the Vikings’ passing game. The highest total last season was Brandon Marshall who was right around 50% of the Bears’ passing game. Ponder would need to keep posting 225+ yard games for Simpson to produce a decent fantasy line, and I just don’t think Ponder can do that.
The Ugly Truth: Simpson has talent, but his ability to suddenly burst out at age 27 with Christian Ponder as his quarterback is extremely unlikely. It wouldn’t surprise me if Simpson keeps the starting role for the vast majority of the season (if not all season), but I think his production will be very inconsistent. I would project a year end statline approaching 60 receptions for 900 yards and four touchdowns if he keeps the starting job. The problem is that it will be a mix of 2/25/0 games with the occasional 5/100/1. He looks good on paper and will have decent year end stats, but he is going to be boom or bust in fantasy. Unless you have super deep rosters, let someone else deal with the headache this year. The silver lining is that he’s playing on a one year contract and could play himself into a contract on a better team next year. Keep an eye on him as a possible offseason stash towards the end of the season. With a good quarterback he could be more consistent and a solid WR3/WR4 level player on a weekly basis.
Leonard Hankerson, WR WAS
Week One Statline: 5 receptions on 7 targets for 80 yards and 2 touchdowns
Two years ago there were a lot of people who were drooling over 6’2”, 211 pound Miami product when he was drafted in the third round into a rather wide open receiving group in Washington. Entering his third year, he has been a disappointment so far. Could week one be the start of something great?
The Good: When it comes to Hankerson, you need to remember what so many of us really liked about him in the first place – he is a big body and can run rather well down the field. When you combine that with having one of the true rising stars in the league at the quarterback position and a lack of talent in front of him at his own position it is tough not to get excited about the possibilities of him growing up with RG3.
The Bad: The main reason Hankerson has struggled so far is that he has struggled to run routes – this means he has struggled to separate unless the defenders screw up or the Redskins scheme to him open. Those are the reasons for his two scores this week. The other strike against him is that at the current point in time he is at best the fifth pass catching option for a run-first team behind Pierre Garcon, Santana Moss, Josh Morgan and Fred Davis.
The Ugly Truth: Fifth in line on a run-first team normally doesn’t mean too much production. While I do expect some slight improvement on his 38/543/3 line from the 2012 season, I don’t think the improvement is going to be enough to make him startable this year. That’s the short term. The bright side is that he is young and still learning. With aging veterans like Santana Moss and Josh Morgan ahead of him, there isn’t any reason that Hankerson won’t be a low end WR3 next season as the starter opposite Garcon in 2014 if he can continue to refine his route running. If he’s on the waiver wire and you can stash him until next year, go for it. If he’s on a roster already (which is likely) wait a few weeks so he has time to post a few 2/32/0 weeks and then make an offer. This past week will likely be his top scoring fantasy week of the season.
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
