Divisional Breakouts

Eric Olinger

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Today we’re launching a weekly group effort series from last year, but with a twist. Last year we would highlight an offensive and defensive player from each division who performed well in the previous week. This year, we will highlight an offensive and defensive player from each division who we believe has breakout potential for the upcoming week. Because let’s be honest, who really cares about last week? It’s all about players who can help us win the next game.

Since every league is different from size to scoring to lineup requirements, we set some parameters. We are looking for players who could go from “bench to breakout” in 12 team PPR leagues starting one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, a tight end and a defense. The IDP nominees will be players who have solid matchups but due to the vastly differing IDP league depths, it will be much harder to identify “deep sleepers” without alienating most our readers. If you’re looking for deeper sleepers, feel free to contact me on Twitter or in the comments section.

We won’t waste anyone’s time talking about a kicker. You also won’t see us trying to convince you a player like Drew Brees or Frank Gore are breakout players. We want players who are either on your bench or on your waiver wire.

My partners in crime for this article are:

  • NFC North- Dan Meylor
  • NFC East-Karl Safchick
  • NFC South- Eric Hardter
  • NFC West- The FF Ghost
  • AFC North- Eric Olinger
  • AFC East- Jeff Beran
  • AFC South- Tim Stafford
  • AFC West- Scott Peak

NFC North

Nate Burleson, WR DET

Burleson caught six passes for 78 yards in week one.  Perhaps more importantly to fantasy owners, he was on the field for 54 of the 83 plays that the pass-happy Detroit offense ran against the Vikings. With Ryan Broyles sidelined due to a knee injury, there’s no competition for snaps in the slot for the Lions when they take on the Cardinals on Sunday.

The Arizona defense allowed eight receptions for 88 yards to pass catchers out of the slot in week one.  Combine that with Calvin Johnson taking on double teams and the fact that Matthew Stafford aired it out 50 times when these two teams squared off in December and you have the potential for a solid outing from Burleson.  He should approach the numbers he put up in week one and makes for a solid WR3 or flex play this week.

IDP- Ziggy Ansah, DE DET

It’s going to be a long season for Carson Palmer in the desert. After facing the Rams’ front four last week and getting sacked four times (three by Robert Quinn alone), he gets to square off with another beastly front four. The rookie picked up half of his first career sack last week against Christian Ponder and the Vikings but look for him to get the job done this week at least once.

NFC East

Da’Rel Scott, RB NYG

Da’Rel Scott is a player with a very fixed ceiling. He will not end up being the next lead back for the Giants, nor will he gain trade value for the New York Giants. What he lacks in ability, though, he makes up for in situation. David Wilson cannot hold onto the ball and subsequently is in Tom Coughlin’s doghouse. Andre Brown will not be available until Week 8, at the earliest. Right now the only other player of note is recently signed Brandon Jacobs. On Sunday night, Scott rushed for 23 yards on four attempts and caught five balls for 51 yards – that’s good for 12 fantasy points in PPR. I see Scott’s role increasing in the coming weeks until Brown gets healthy. Consider him a flex option for a needy team.

IDP- Trent Cole, OLB PHI

Left for dead by many, including myself, Cole looked surprisingly capable playing from a two-point stance on Monday night. He was disruptive and decisive, something that doesn’t always quickly happen when changing positions. He didn’t bring RGIII down for any sacks, but he did get two quarterback hits and a tackle for a loss to go with his three solos and an assist. If you play in big play leagues and you’re looking for a guy to get a sack or two, you could do much worse than Cole against Philip Rivers and the Chargers this week.

NFC South

Pierre Thomas, RB NO

In what’s slowly becoming one of the worst kept secrets in the league, Saints running back Mark Ingram simply isn’t very good!  In addition to his plodding ways, he offers little to nothing in the passing game, and is virtually useless if he’s held out of the end zone.  Going against a stout Tampa run defense in week two, odds are New Orleans isn’t going to try to fit a square peg into a round hole.

Enter Thomas.

Against the Falcons, PT Cruiser converted 13 touches into 59 total yards, good for 9.9 fantasy points in a PPR format.  He’s arguably the most versatile running back on the roster, affording a credible threat both running and catching the ball.  With Ingram running like a one-legged man stuck in quicksand, I expect “Frenchie” to see additional work this week, potentially affording FLEX-level output. 

IDP- David Hawthorne, ILB NO

Hawthorne has been a forgotten man since signing in the “Big Easy.” While Curtis Lofton is the linebacker to own, Hawthorne is currently playing as an every down linebacker as well due to the injury to Johnathan Vilma. If the Buccaneers are to have a chance in this game, they are going to have to get Doug Martin rolling early and often. That should give Lofton and Hawthorne plenty of tackle opportunites. He has LB3 potential this week.

NFC West

Doug Baldwin, WR SEA

In week one, Doug Baldwin finally showed why he’s been hiding on some fantasy owners’ sleeper list. With Percy Harvin out, many expected Sidney Rice or even Golden Tate to be the player who would now figure into the Seahawks’ plans the most. However, Baldwin stepped up on Sunday and posted a seven reception game, totaling 91 yards and surprising a lot of people. I see no reason why Baldwin can’t post a similar stat line against a tough San Francisco defense which will require Wilson to scramble and checkdown. Look for him to collect a similar amount of receptions with just a hair less yardage.

IDP- Patrick Peterson, CB ARZ

Rarely do I get excited for a cornerback in fantasy football, but this week’s matchup between Peterson and Calvin Johnson should be awesome. It’s no secret the Lions will throw to Johnson when he’s double or even triple teamed. One of the hardest IDP statistics to predict is interceptions but I can guarantee we see plenty of them in this game from both sides. Look for Peterson to pick off a Matthew Stafford pass this week and once he gets the ball in his hands, anything can happen. 

AFC North

Marlon Brown, WR BAL

Marlon Brown has quickly become a “DLF guy.” Chad Scott called this young man’s potential in his “Mining for Paydirt” article prior to week one. The odd part, he precisely predicted his four catch, 65 yard, one touchdown performance exactly. I don’t know if Chad has a DeLorean or a copy of Gray’s Sports Almanac, but it was impressive… and definitely lucky. Mostly impressive, though.

Aiding Brown was a MCL injury to Jacoby Jones which will keep the veteran sidelined four to six weeks – that leaves very little in the way for Brown to see significant playing time this week. Based on last week’s Browns-Dolphins game, look for the Ravens WR2 to abuse Buster Skrine the same way Brian Hartline did while Joe Haden and Torrey Smith duke it out on the other side.

IDP- Paul Kruger, OLB CLE

Nothing would make Kruger happier than showing the Ravens some of the money they handed Joe Flacco this off-season would have been better used to sign him than by bringing down the overpriced quarterback. He has more talent than Shaun Phillips of the Broncos and the Ravens had no answer for him last week. If the Browns can keep this game close and force Flacco to throw, Kruger will definitely have a good game.

AFC East

Julian Edelman, WR NE

This one is kind of a no-brainer. With Rob Gronkowski not ready to return, Danny Amendola doubtful with a groin injury and Shane Vereen being placed on the short-term IR, Edelman figures to be a major part of the Patriots offense this week against the Jets.  Tom Brady simply doesn’t have many viable and reliable options outside of the former seventh round pick out of Kent State. Last week against the Bills, Edelman had seven receptions (on nine targets) for 79 yards and two touchdowns. Without Amendola and Vereen (24 total targets last week) and when you factor in Edelman’s last game against the Jets on Thanksgiving 2012, it stands to reason that he’s in line for a very nice outing. He’s a must-start in all formats as ten receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown would probably be a modest day.

IDP- Kiko Alonso, ILB BUF

IDPers didn’t draft him to sit him, but if you were in “wait and see” mode with the rookie, you missed out on an impressive debut. Against one of the game’s most cerebral quarterbacks, Alonso played 95 snaps Sunday and held his own. He finished the day with five solo tackles and four assists. He doesn’t come off the field and will see plenty of tackle opportunities versus the Carolina Panthers this week. It’s time to take the training wheels off the rookie and ink him into lineups. 

AFC South

Jaguars D/ST

If you’re going deep, really deep and are willing to gamble – I like the Jaguars D/ST this week. Notice how few rushing yards they yielded. I don’t see Pryor pulling a 100 yard game on them. If they can hold Jamaal Charles to 77 yards, they can contain Pryor. If you have safer options, then of course go with them but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a low scoring affair in the Bay Area. (Note: Vegas agrees with me and has the total set under 40 on this one. That’s a low total for any NFL matchup).

IDP- Johnathan Cyprien, SS JAX

The Raiders-Jaguars game has a chance to be a really interesting game and it has a chance to be a complete dumpster fire. Last week, Terrelle Pryor nearly led the Raiders to victory over Andrew Luck and the Colts by rushing for 112 yards and throwing for 217 yards. As a result, LaRon Landry ended up with ten solo tackles and five assists from the safety position. This week, Cyprien will be given this task. If the Jags simply let him attack and he can stay out of his own head he has the potential to match the numbers put up by Landry last week.

AFC West

Dexter McCluster, WR KC

If you are looking for a nice sleeper in PPR leagues this week, McCluster could provide flex value against the Dallas Cowboys. McCluster was targeted five times by the Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith and finished with three receptions for forty-three yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars. McCluster scored seven PPR points last week, and that’s better than what Greg Jennings or Dez Bryant gave to their fantasy owners on Sunday. McCluster finished with similar production to his teammate, Dwayne Bowe. Smith completed  21 passes, and finished with the third lowest yards per attempt (5.1), ahead of only much maligned Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert. After watching the Dallas defense terrorize the Giants last week, Smith may be checking down a lot, and McCluster stands to benefit from it. Dallas did give up 12 receptions, 117 yards and a touchdown to Brandon Myers and Da’Rel Scott, so McCluster could get some targets in the short-to-intermediate passing range. McCluster’s upside is limited, but he could be a nice surprise for owners in a bind for a flex player this week.

IDP- Duke Ihenacho, SS DEN

If Ihenacho wasn’t already rostered in your IDP league, he will undoubtedly be one of the first defensive players added this week after posting an impressive line of 11 solo tackles, one assist, a tackle for loss, and three passes defended. One of the most impressive things about the performance was his willingness to take on plays aggressively. He took great angles all night and constantly around the ball. With Manning and Company lighting up the scoreboard, the Broncos are going to see plenty off pass attempts come their way, giving Ihenacho plenty of opportunities to make plays. This week against the Giants will be no different. Look for him to approach double digit tackles again this week.

There you have it, folks. Hopefully we were able to give you some ideas if you’re looking for a sneaky play this week. See ya next week.

eric olinger
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