As a dynasty league 0wner, everyone will run across a player they just can’t “quit” from time-to-time. The list right now could include players like Jonathan Stewart, Darren McFadden, or Ryan Mathews. After all, they have massive potential, physical talent and the ability to finish as an elite player at their position – then they get bit by the same injury bug every year. It’s tough to sell them because as an owner, you feel their value could be so much higher if they played up to potential. In short, it’s just tough to sell any of those players on the cheap with the thought of them having a career year going through your head.
For me that player is Kenny Britt.
Why Kenny Britt? I hang my hat on the same hook most Britt owners do – his shortened 2011 season. It can be an evil thing to extrapolate stats and wonder what could have been. In three games ion 2011, Britt averaged nine targets, six catches, 96 yards and one touchdown a game. When we extrapolate those stats, we see those numbers equated to 144 targets, 91 receptions, 1,536 yards and 16 touchdowns – that equates to 340.6 fantasy points over the course of the season in PPR leagues. Calvin Johnson scored 348.4 points during the 2012 season in Detroit.
I am in no way saying that Britt is on the same level as Calvin Johnson. Johnson is a rare talent who may be one of the top five players in the entire NFL regardless of position. Using extrapolated numbers as the comparisons is a tough argument, but an argument nonetheless.
Age – Britt will turn 25 years of age on September 19th and already has four years of experience in the NFL.
Build – At 6’3” and 215 lbs., Britt has a big body that is difficult to defend. He also knows how to use his body to his advantage.
Contract year – Britt is in the last year of his rookie contract. He is looking for a monster payday from the Titans (or another suitor) at the end of 2012. He must stay healthy all year and put up a solid stat line to get the kind of pay he may want. It’s nice to think he may land in a situation next season with a team more capable of moving the ball through the air (it really could not get much worse).
Even Randy Moss – Moss knows that Britt is dealing with more mental road blocks than physical. He has a lot of physical potential, but continued to be haunted by discipline issues off the field and injuries on the field. Moss believes Britt can include his name with the likes of Julio Jones and AJ Green if he can keep his nose clean and stay out of the training room.
Defensive Questions – If the defense gives up a lot of points, the Titans will be throwing late in games – this means fantasy football production late in games because the other team already locked up the win. Carson Palmer made a living on this in Oakland last season.
Why Not Britt?
Quarterback question mark – Jake Locker had an abysmal 2012 campaign. He completed less than 60% of his passes, was injured for five games and finished the season with more interceptions (11) than touchdown passes (10). Britt has not had the luxury of play with a heralded quarterback in his career and he has put up decent stats each season.
Health – Britt has only played a 16 game season once in his career and that was his rookie year. He finished as a low-end WR2 in 2010 playing in 12 out of 16 games. He was off to the hottest starts of all wide receivers in 2011 before he tore his ACL. Last year was a recovery season working through growing pains with Jake Locker and Matt Hasselbeck. What will happen in 2013?
Attitude – This is dynasty and it is difficult to waste a pick on a player who could easily miss games due to off the field discipline issues. Some fantasy football owners will not take players like that on their teams simply because they do not know year to year if they are going to be eligible to play. If you are going to consider taking Justin Blackmon, why would you pass on Kenny Britt?
What have you done for me lately? – Britt has not produced for his fantasy owners at a high level since 2010. His value continues to fall due to his health and off the field issues. He has not completed an entire season since his rookie year. Many owners are forgetting Britt has outstanding ability and can still produce at a high level, but until that happens he is easy to pass on for new players with upside (Tavon Austin, Deandre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson).
Roster makeup – If your fantasy roster is full of players with question marks due to health, discipline issues, or inconsistencies, it is hard to add another player with those same issues to the mix. If you team already has AJ green and Victor Cruz, both are safe options in my opinion and adding Britt does not hurt as much. If my wide receivers are Percy Harvin and Danny Amendola, adding Britt would be worrisome due to possible durability issues with all of your players.
Britt could be a boom or a bust. He has massive potential and it is really disappointing to see it end the same way year after year. If Britt remains with the Titans after this season his dynasty value may fall into an abyss of no return, especially if Locker continues to underperform. A change of scenery next season could mean a jump in Britt’s dynasty value. Last time I checked, Bill Belichick takes chances on guys like Britt all the time. I am not saying he ends up in New England, but what if?
He is a potential lottery ticket play. His value is as low as it has ever been. Some owners continue to get burned every year and keep hanging in there hoping for a return on investment. Britt is a really nice buy low who may pay off this year or next depending on his situation. Although it is difficult projecting what the future will bring, it doesn’t hurt to try to pick him up in your league. He has massive upside with limited investment at this point.
Read my lips “buy low now.”
You'll find Brian on Twitter at @Brian_Bulmer