Final Rookie Mock Draft
The NFL preseason has begun and the games that matter are less than a month away! For those of you that haven’t had your rookie drafts quite yet, they should be rapidly approaching. In order to help you get an up to date view on rookie values we conducted one last rookie-only mock draft with our writers. This particular draft features three rounds and was conducted just as the first week of preseason games were kicking off. That means that our writers weren’t privy to any news that has come out since the preseason games. Things can happen quickly this time of year, but this should help give you a little extra information as you take your final steps towards planning your draft.
For this mock draft, we assumed it was a standard scoring PPR league with normal lineup requirements, meaning no IDP, super flex, or 2 quarterback leagues. Trades were not allowed. Draft order was randomly assigned and each drafter was asked to make a brief comment about why they made the pick they did. I’ll follow up each pick with some brief thoughts of my own. I’m not a draft expert, and like many of you, my rookie analysis is far from complete. I’m just sharing my thoughts so you get two opinions on each pick. In cases of disagreement, I’ll be the first to admit that I might be the one that is wrong.
If you want to take a look at previous mock drafts that we have done to get a sense of the risers and fallers, here you go:
Pre-combine: Round 1 and Round 2
Post-combine: Round 1, Round 2 and Round 3
Pre-draft: Round 1, Round 2 and Round 3
Post draft: Round 1, Round 2 and Round 3
June Mock: Round 1, Round 2 and Round 3
1.01 – Giovani Bernard, RB CIN
(Post Draft 1.02, June 1.02)
Chad’s thoughts: I realize Le’Veon Bell is becoming the more popular pick at 1.01, but I absolutely love Bernard’s skill set in this offense. After seeing him drive his girlfriend’s mother’s soccer mom van to training camp in Hard Knocks, it sealed the deal for me. He’s going to be a PPR machine and should sew up the majority of the work my mid-season. He’s electric with the ball in his hands but needs to have it in space at this point in his career. He will prosper as an every down back if his frame can hold another ten pounds.
My thoughts: I’ve never been as high on Bernard as many others. When I look at him, I see someone who has very good speed and agility, but not to the elite level. I also see a player with a severe lack of strength and power which impacts his pass protection ability as well as his ability to run through tackles. He almost always seems to go down on first contact and rarely moves the pile. He desperately needs to add some strength to his frame and learn how to run between the tackles. He has too much talent to leave entirely off the field, but I don’t ever view him as more than a committee back unless he bulks up a fair amount.
1.02 – DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU
(Post Draft 1.04, June 1.01)
Jeff B’s thoughts: Training camp reports about Hopkins have been glowing, noting his athleticism and play-making ability in particular.  He might not be the instant fantasy impact player that others who were available here are, but I feel he’s got the highest long term upside of the group.  I’ll take the reliable brand new Toyota Camry while everyone else rolls the dice with their used luxury cars.
My thoughts: Hopkins just might be the safest pick of this entire draft. He has the size and skills to be a good NFL receiver. However, I question if he has the skill set to be a true number one receiver on an NFL team. I view him as a very high floor but low ceiling prospect. In a year or two he could be a top 25 receiver but I don’t ever think he’ll push for top ten numbers.
1.03 – Montee Ball, RB DEN
(Post Draft 1.03, June 1.05)
Chris’ thoughts: Ball is my number three ranked rookie behind (you guessed it) Bernard and Hopkins. While he needs to hone his pass blocking, Ball is built like and skilled enough to be the three down back the Broncos are looking for. He may be listed as second on the depth chart, but I think this should have been expected at this point in the preseason and has no impact on my views, whatsoever. I have never been impressed with Ronnie Hillman and it should only be a matter of time before Ball’s superior skillset wins him the job.
My thoughts: My feelings for Montee Ball are very well documented. I have been singing his praises since long before he became a Bronco. He is one of those players that is more than just the sum of his parts, so even a poor showing at the combine didn’t dissuade me. He has the skills to be a top NFL running back and has shown over the years that he can handle the workload. It might take some time for him to earn the bell cow role given Coach Fox’s preference for veterans, but he is by far the best talent in the backfield.
1.04 – Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT
(Post Draft 1.09, June 1.06)
Brian’s thoughts: I also liked Tavon Austin, but wanted a running back to start the draft. I feel that Bell is a solid runner who can also catch. Based on recent reports Bell is the favorite to win first team reps, and with a strong preseason, could be a three down back in Pittsburgh. Bell is a solid talent and I like his potential volume. Bell could make an immediate impact this year with the Steelers.
My thoughts: Bell’s stock continues to rise almost weekly since the NFL Draft. He was one of my sleepers pre-draft but now the hype and expectations are at a point where I think there is a decent chance that he disappoints. I like the talent and he is one of the best rookies when it comes to pass protection. However, he isn’t an elite talent but he has a great situation. The Steelers will run the ball and they prefer to ride just one guy. Bell could be a very nice fantasy asset for the next few years.
1.05 – Tavon Austin, WR STL
(Post Draft 1.01, June 1.04)
Eric O’s thoughts: I really wanted either Giovani Bernard or Le’Veon Bell to slide to me but wasn’t that lucky. Instead I took Tavon Austin who has the potential to be a PPR beast in the Rams’ offense. He might not explode out of the gates as a rookie but he will be a key fantasy asset for many years because of his explosiveness after the catch. With Chris Givens blowing the lid off defenses, Austin will have plenty of space to operate
My thoughts: Getting Austin with the fifth pick is tremendous value. In PPR leagues, Austin is my top rated player. He might not do a whole lot this year, but I think that he has the skill set to be a Percy Harvin type of weapon. With the Rams’ offense trending up, I think that Austin’s future is very bright. Owners might need to be patient as he adjusts to the NFL.
1.06 – Eddie Lacy, RB GB
(Post Draft 1.06, June 1.09)
Karl’s thoughts: Before the draft, many had Lacy pegged as the 1.01. He was selected by the Packers, which had an open spot at the running back position. The fourth round pick of Johnathan Franklin seemed to drop Lacy’s value noticeably. I think Lacy will win the job outright, and the Packers will want to re-establish the running game. If this pick wasn’t Lacy, I would have gone Christine Michael here.
My thoughts: Lacy is more Mark Ingram and less Trent Richardson in my opinion, but he does have some talent and some value. While the Packers are a pass first team, they run enough to make the play action very effective. That means there is enough to make Lacy a RB2 in fantasy leagues if he can secure the primary rusher role. The issue is the amount of competition, not just from Franklin, but also from Aaron Rodgers and John Kuhn in short yardage situations.
1.07 – Cordarrelle Patterson, WR MIN
(Post draft 1.05, June 1.07)
Derek’s thoughts: The off-season hasn’t been kind to Patterson, with reports out of camp stating that he is behind Jerome Simpson on the depth chart. Patterson will probably take a little time to develop, but I’m a fan of his potential to be a true superstar. Compared to the other players available at this point, I think his ceiling is the highest by a relatively large margin.
My thoughts: If we started this draft after the first pre-season game I wonder if Patterson might have gone even higher. While the – wasn’t kind, he put on a nice show during the first pre-season game, show casing his exceptional skills on the kick return. He is a talent, but the question is if he’ll be able to learn how to play as an NFL receiver. I expect him to be very inconsistent for a year or two. If you can be patient and wait, you’ll be rewarded in a few years.
1.08 – Keenan Allen, WR SD
(Post Draft 1.07, June 1.08)
Mark’s thoughts: I think there are at least three tiers in the first round. Tier one consisting Bernard, Hopkins, Austin and Lacy. Tier two being Patterson, Ball and Bell.  While most won’t have that second tier separated from the first one I listed, those were the exact players drafted ahead of me.  I was trying to pick between Allen and Justin Hunter here and both have plenty of upside, but with injuries in San Diego I think Allen gets a chance earlier.  Really only time will tell.
My thoughts: Allen is still a player I question. He was held back by his college offense and quarterback but flashed great talent. An injury didn’t allow him to do much at the combine either. He’s also had a fairly quiet training camp thus far, but his path to the starting line-up has become clearer with the injuries to his teammates. He’s a nice pick in the late first round.
1.09 – Christine Michael, RB SEA
(Post Draft 2.10, June 1.03)
Doug’s thoughts: This is exactly the range where I feel most comfortable drafting Michael. Everything I’m reading about him so far in training camp has been nothing but positive. Pete Carroll absolutely loves this guy and with Robert Turbin sidelined for the first few practices he’s firmly in the lead as Marshawn Lynch’s primary backup. I’ve been the conductor of the Michael hype train for months now and have went out of my way to put myself in position to grab him in every rookie draft I participate in. I believe he has top five upside at the running back position and patience will pay huge dividends as soon as the 2014 season.
My thoughts: I like Michael much better in the late first round or early second round as opposed to 1.03 where Doug took him in June. Michael has talent. No one has ever denied that. The issue is that there are several ifs and buts that come with him. If he can stay healthy, if he can avoid conflicts with teammates and coaches, if Lynch is released after this year. With all of those question marks he is a definite gamble that might pay off in a year or two.
1.10 – Justin Hunter, WR TEN
(Post Draft 1.08, June 1.10)
Eric H’s thoughts: We’ve definitely entered first round purgatory, and the options are not overly enticing at this point. However, I’ve long held the belief Hunter is the most talented wide receiver in this draft class, so I’m pretty happy he’s still hanging around. It’s more than likely his value is being artificially depressed due to reports of injuries and inconsistency at Titans’ training camp, but I don’t think even his most staunch advocated are expecting year-one contributions. Getting Hunter this late just screams “value” to me, as I believe he possesses the ability to easily outperform this draft slot a few years from now.
My thoughts: Hunter is sliding in recent drafts. In some drafts he is going as low as the late second or even the third round, which is almost criminal. Physically, Hunter is a lot like AJ Green. The questions have always been about the mental side of his game and injuries. That’s why he’s been a late first round pick in almost all of our drafts. Knocking him further down due to recent camp reports is just knocking him twice for the same issues. It might take a year or two, but Hunter has one of the highest upsides of any receiver in this draft.
1.11 – Markus Wheaton, WR PIT
(Post Draft 1.10, June 1.11)
My thoughts: Wheaton was a pretty easy choice at this point in time. Picking this late in the first round you just wait and take whoever falls to you. He is a very nice combination of speed, agility, and playmaking ability. Camp reports have been positive about him and his transition to the NFL. In fact, he just might be the most talented receiver on the Steeler’s roster. That is more about the current batch of Steelers receivers than Wheaton being an elite talent. Wheaton has talent, it just isn’t elite level. Long term, I see him working as the second receiver for the Steelers and as a fantasy WR3 with WR2 upside.
1.12 – Tyler Eifert, TE CIN
(Post Draft 2.01, June 1.12)
Scott’s thoughts: I’d rather take a TE later, but I’m happy taking Eifert at this spot. Love his talent, upside and athleticism. The fact that he plays for Cincinnati scares me a bit, as I’m not sure anyone not named AJ Green will get a chance with enough targets in the passing game to be a starting on fantasy lineups. Eifert could get some redzone touchdowns though. I think he is a good value here.
My thoughts: Highly drafted tight ends tend to be fairly safe picks in fantasy drafts. With that said, I definitely agree with Scott that his upside could be fairly limited due to the team that he plays on. I’m not sure that Andy Dalton will be able to support multiple pass catchers. Given that Eifert will be sharing the starting tight end role, he could be very inconsistent and frustrate fantasy owners. The talent is there to be a TE1, but I think he’s destined to be a TE2 for the next few years.
Stay tuned for the second and third rounds of picks in the next few days!
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
