Over/Under: Tony Romo
Welcome to another installment of “Over/Under” where I highlight a player, determine some projections based on past tendencies, then state whether I think they will go “over or under” those projections. The criteria will be different for each player based on position and situation.This week’s debate will focus on Tony Romo. We will put our betting line at 4,200 yards and 28 touchdowns.
Fantasy football players are a unique bunch. Some people cannot separate their fan hood from their fantasy addiction. I live just north of Cincinnati and I hear people say they refuse to draft any Steelers or Browns player because they can’t bring themselves to root for someone they’ve been raised to hate. Another quirk I love is recency bias. Whatever happened last year, good or bad, will “definitely” continue this year. Of course, that’s not the case. Tony Romo falls into one very specific area of fantasy football purgatory, the inability to separate real life failures from fantasy failures. For all his well documented shortcomings, he has been one of the safest, most underappreciated fantasy quarterbacks of the last decade.
Since taking over for Drew Bledsoe in 2006, he has failed to produce QB1 numbers only once (and that was the 2010 season when he missed ten games). Not taking the injury shortened season of 2010 in account, he has thrown for more than 4,000 yards in four out of five seasons and at least 26 touchdowns every year.
His most infamous mistake has been the botched hold in the 2006 NFC Wild Card round against the Seattle Seahawks. As the backup quarterback to start the season, he was the holder for extra points and field goals. When Bledsoe went down and Romo took over as the team’s starting quarterback, he never relinquished his holding duties on special teams. With the Cowboys down 21-20 from the two yard line, they lined up for the go ahead score with 1:19 left and he couldn’t handle the snap. Instead, he tried to scramble for the touchdown and was tackled just short of the goal line. The Cowboys would lose the game and the seed for never ending Romo hatred was planted. Here’s the play:
Perhaps nothing waters the seed of hatred quite like his 12-16 record in December and one career playoff win. Of course, that is not all his fault. This team is not some well oiled juggernaut being held back by an inefficient signal caller. In fact, since 2006 he has the third most fourth quarter comebacks (18) and has the fifth best quarterback rating (95.6). Dissecting it a little further, over his last three Decembers (2009, 2011, and 2012) he has a 66.5% completion percentage, a 27:5 touchdown to interception ratio, and a 106.3 rating.
When looking at the support he has received over the last three seasons, it is even more impressive he has been able to produce like he has. The Cowboys’ defense has been worst statistically over the last three seasons than at any other point of his career. Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan has been replaced with Monte Kiffin after finishing 23rd, 14th, and 19th in total defense the last three years.
A quarterback’s best friend is a good ground game. Since peaking as the seventh best rushing attack in 2009, the Cowboy’s ground game has been in a steady decline, bottoming out at #31 overall in 2012. For this team (and Tony Romo) to succeed, they need DeMarco Murray and company to step up and produce. The Cowboys took a ton of flack for “reaching” for their starting center, Travis Frederick, in the first round of this year’s draft, but the middle of this line has been a glaring weakness on this team for two years now. I don’t know how many times last year I watched a shotgun snap fly over the head of Romo. Sometimes you have to bite the bullet and draft for need. I’m sure Romo and Murray appreciate the questionable move when you look at these rushing stats.
The strength of this team is, and has been, the pass catchers. Led by Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and Miles Austin, Romo has a great trio of trustworthy receivers, especially since Dez has finally seen the light. For a while, it looked like the trouble receiver was going to continue spiraling out of control until he was no longer in the league, but he has his head on straight (for now) and is coming off a true breakout campaign. Witten has been Romo’s security blanket since day one and PPR owners have benefitted greatly. Miles Austin is coming off two consecutive seasons with lingering leg injuries, but is reportedly 100% healthy for the first time in a long time. He’s a great buy low target right now.
Bringing back this crew is great news for Romo, but they need another weapon to step up. We’ve seen players pop up out of nowhere in this offense the last two years – first Laurent Robinson in 2011, followed by Kevin Ogletree in 2012. This year it will come down to Dwayne Harris, Cole Beasley, Anthony Armstrong ,rookie Terrance Williams and rookie tight end Gavin Escobar to step up. It really feels like the Cowboys desperately want it to be Terrance Williams, but he’s having problems staying on the practice field.
According to Ryan McDowell’s offseason dynasty ADP data, Tony Romo had an ADP of 98.83 as the QB12. For the last few years, he’s been considered the “last of the QB1s” before the signal callers really fall off a cliff of uncertainty. For a 33 year old who just signed a six year, $108 million dollar extension, I think it’s a steal. He might not have the ceiling of some of the sexier picks, but his floor is as high as anyone’s. Even in a bad year, he will finish in the top ten and I expect him to maintain this level or production for at least the next three seasons.
For our line, I’m taking the over. I’m a Tony Romo guy. I believe with his returning weapons and what they’ve added in the draft he will threaten to set career highs in yardage and touchdowns. Even though Dez Bryant’s career is just now launching, the window for this team is closing quickly. I expect this ground game to be more productive than the last two years and finish in the top half of the league in yards. Even though you can throw records out the window when any of these teams line up against each other, there aren’t any defenses in the NFC East to scare me.
People say Tony Romo can’t win in December or January. Bottom line, our fantasy Super Bowls are in week 16. I really don’t care if he goes 0-for-life in December and January as long as he throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns in weeks 14-16. I don’t get points in my fantasy league for wins or being clutch, just yards and touchdowns
What do you think? Are you taking the “over or under” on Tony Romo throwing for 4,200 yards and 28 touchdowns? Let me know in the comments section below.
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