QB or not QB?

Jeff Haverlack Posted On August 11, 2013

brees

The Shakespearien soliloquy has nothing on this fantasy question that seems to be more popular than ever in 2013. In fact, I actually am finding myself growing more irritable as each new day seemingly brings the same question: “Should I consider drafting a quarterback in the first round?” Irritable isn’t exactly correct, but it works well enough to illustrate my level of emotion tied to this topic … at least for this year.

And there’s the rub.

Two years ago I had performed an informal survey of those fantasy players who won championship games. The question was a simple one: “At what positional rank did your QB1 finish?” The reason why the question had become so important to me was I was beginning to see a growing trend, in that the point disparity achievable by having a top five quarterback week-in, week-out, was potentially too much of an advantage to ignore. Coupled with the sheer point production a top quarterback could generate, the consistency of that production was often times a tremendous asset. All quarterbacks can put up a monster game here or there that can skew the point totals when looking back at a given year, but top quarterbacks often were scoring, on average, ten points greater per week more than their lower ranked brethren. For most scoring systems, that advantage is as good as a single additional player each week. To wit, in my informal survey, I found roughly 80% of fantasy teams had a quarterback who finished within the top five at the position. Whether you believe the point disparity is enough of an argument or not, that statistic alone was something I just couldn’t discard. In retrospect, I wish I had expanded the number of data points collected.

The likes of Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady always seemed to grace the top four. Substitute Aaron Rodgers for Brett Favre and the same held true for recent years. Outside of those four, a new name would sneak his way into the top five, these players being the likes of Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler, Kurt Warner, Philip Rivers, etc. You get the picture. In fact, up until the beginning of last year, I believe there still existed enough credibility in this fact to warrant significant consideration. What is frustrating about this, however, is that it was difficult to justify by looking at fantasy point production and factoring that into wins and losses. But the survey data didn’t lie, there IS, or was, some truth to it … somewhere.

All that has changed, at least in my estimation.

I listened to a rather long winded quarterback analysis spot recently while driving to an event. The host and guest were breaking down yards per attempt in an effort to forecast future beasts and busts from the quarterback position. I really tried to buy into it and give the guest the benefit of the doubt, but I couldn’t. Even when trying to apply last year’s historical data into a wildly inexact and shifting future-based metric, I couldn’t find enough that would lead me to believe this metric can hold any water or in any other way suggest which quarterbacks you should be targeting with your all important draft picks. Too much changes year over year for me to believe that a statistic such as yards per attempt can be meaningful enough to affect draft value. There are just too many variables in the equation. Just because there are differences from year to year (even from the same quarterbacks) doesn’t mean this stat deserves greater emphasis as a draftable metric to be utilized. Sometimes a player’s fantasy production is just what it is – a reflection of their efficiency into the offensive system that they command. To make it more complex is an exercise in futility.

The reason I believe much as changed in the last year is because of what 2012 provided, potentially going back to 2011 as well. Like all positions, quarterbacks, too, have point disparity to be garnered as we travel from the top rated down through the rankings. Rather than bore you with annual statistics about point production, allow me to call upon the usual suspects in the top five, mentioned above. In 12 team leagues, four of these players, year in, year out, provided a huge opportunity. Now enter 2012’s cast of characters: Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick. Combine them with names from the past: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Pick your poison, you now have a solid eight to choose from. There’s little doubt one of these eight will sit atop the position at the conclusion of 2013. But which one? We may all be in agreement where once Tom Brady existed at the top of this list, now he falls to the bottom. I’m still not counting him out from consideration. But it doesn’t get easier even when adding the next three names: Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford and Tony Romo. We’re now up to 11 total quarterbacks. How confident are you that you can choose the top performer from this list? Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers may be the easy choice, but point isn’t about being correct in the end, at least not as much as it is about the point disparity present at the end of 2013.

Last season changed the landscape of the quarterback position greatly. On the heels of a successful Cam Newton, at least in fantasy point production, 2013 saw four extremely athletic, young and dynamic players who have doubled the capacity of top players within the position. Dare I say it’s almost inarguable. Think not? Peruse any of the recent fantasy drafts and see the quarterbacks flying off the board between rounds four and seven, with the remaining names falling between rounds eight and ten. The fact is, the quarterback position has been diluted, in a good way, over the past year.

Most fantasy leagues are filled with 12 teams, many with ten and fewer with some other number. Unless you play in a two-quarterback format, there’s a very strong likelihood you could draft the top fantasy producing quarterback as late as round six and arguable as late as round ten and vie for a top five performer. In a two-quarterback league, all bets are off and there’s a strong likelihood that 80% of first round picks will, and should, be a quarterback. You cannot afford to be left out of the position in that format. Outside of that format, there just isn’t a significant enough advantage to warrant missing other positional talents while searching for the small advantage given by taking a quarterback early.

Last year’s top quarterback, Drew Brees, amassed 384 points while the tenth ranked quarterback, Matthew Stafford produced 326, a differential of less than four fantasy points per game. The argument for taking a signal caller in the first round is dead. It can’t be done. Or, at least, shouldn’t be done. The recent influx of young, athletic and strong-armed quarterbacks has changed the landscape such that there doesn’t exist enough of an advantage to employ this strategy. Looking to 2014’s draft class, I see more of the same.

Let’s end this argument now and return to a more desirable and debatable topic instead. Something like: “Which running back should be first off the board?”

Shall we?

[ad1]

Author
Recent Posts

Jeff Haverlack

Co-Founder at Dynasty League Football

Appreciative husband and proud father who poorly attempts to balance family life with his passion for creating the largest, most helpful and most impactful fantasy community on the planet! DLF was created for the community and we're committed to each member within it! Hope anyone playing this great game will call DLF home in some way!

You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff

Latest posts by Jeff Haverlack (see all)