Training Camp Battles: Mark Sanchez vs. Geno Smith

Eric Hardter

genosmithTraining camp is upon us which means that football is finally back! For some of us it feels like forever since the Ravens won the Super Bowl and Ray Lewis cried with hundreds of cameras pointed at him. Since then we have had free agency, the draft, and some OTAs but we still have an awful lot of questions about what might happen when the games matter and who the true breakout stars might be. In order to help draw your attention to a few different training camp battles that could have a long lasting impact on your fantasy roster we are kicking off our Training Camp Battles series.

We will give you an in-depth look at several training camp battles and give you the strengths and weaknesses of each player involved. We will also break down what they need to do in order to win the battle and what the upside is for the winner.

Our series continues with a look at the New York Jets’ signal callers.  As uninspiring play by incumbent former first-round pick Mark Sanchez has led to two straight playoff-less appearances, there’s a new sense of urgency in the Big Apple.  Upheaval in the front office has led to a legitimate competition under center and new GM John Idzik wasted no time in staking his claim to West Virginia University product Geno Smith with his second-round pick in the 2013 NFL Draft.  Mired in salary cap hell, the Jets may struggle to compete in 2013, but a better offense means brighter fantasy outlooks for players such as Santonio Holmes, Stephen Hill, Jeremy Kerley, Jeff Cumberland and Chris Ivory.  Let’s take a look at the main combatants.

Mark Sanchez

Selected with the fifth overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, Sanchez found immediate success during his first two years in the league.  After being inserted into the starting lineup as a rookie, the former USC product led New York to back-to-back AFC Championship games in his first two seasons, achieving success in the “game manager” role despite a lack of fantasy prowess.  Following a big step forward as the overall fantasy QB10 in 2011, Sanchez’ game bottomed out in 2012 when he reverted to his turnover-prone rookie ways.  Standing on tenuous ground and facing competition for the first time since 2009, the artist formerly known as “the Sanchize” is anything but a lock for the starting job.

Strengths:  Believe it or not, Sanchez has shown the ability to function as an above-average quarterback.  He progressed in each of his first three years in the league, culminating in a 3,474-yard, 26-touchdown season in 2011 despite a lack of playmakers on offense.  He has also shown the ability to win games when provided with a strong defense and running game.  Finally, the veterans on the team still appear to be behind him and head coach Rex Ryan is a known advocate.

Weaknesses: Where should I start?  Sanchez has yet to show NFL-caliber accuracy, failing to break the 57% completion barrier during his four years in the league.  Unfortunately, this isn’t due to the pitfalls of a vertical offense, as Sanchez’ career yards-per-attempt statistic stands at a pitiful 6.48.  Piling on, he sports a negative turnover differential with 68 passing touchdowns compared to 69 interceptions and his career quarterback rating is just barely above 70.  To put that last statistic in perspective, thirty quarterbacks would’ve bested that mark in 2012.  Finally, and most importantly, Sanchez has lost the support of the fans in our nation’s largest city, and it’s clearly gotten into his head – he’s scared to make a mistake and it’s glaringly obvious.

What he needs to do: Sanchez needs to play flawless – and I repeat, flawless – football in the preseason.  He needs to show command of the huddle, not turn the ball over and ultimately take the decision out of the coaches’ hands.  More importantly, Sanchez likely needs Smith to face-plant and play like a wide-eyed rookie who’s not yet ready to compete at the NFL level.

Upside:  There exists enough empirical evidence to suggest Sanchez will never live up to his lofty draft status.  Given that, however, if he wins the starting job, he can still potentially act as a bye week fill-in for those in deeper leagues, functioning as an end-of-bench type.  With 2013 potentially being his last season in New York, Sanchez could use a change of scenery to maybe, just maybe, re-invent himself as a fantasy-relevant signal caller somewhere else.

Geno Smith

Discussed as a potential early first-round pick for the majority of the pre-draft process, it was a bit of a shock when Smith fell to the early parts of the second round.  Despite that, he remains arguably the most polished quarterback in the 2013 class, starting for two-plus years and throwing for nearly 12,000 yards in the high-octane WVU offense.  In addition to those Playstation-like numbers, Smith also led his team to a BCS bowl game victory in 2011, showing the ability to perform on a big stage.

Strengths: Smith consistently improved his numbers during his time in Morgantown, ultimately concluding his stint in college by completing 71% of his passes during his senior season, to go with a 7:1 touchdown to interception ratio.  Though he’s not a read-option quarterback by any stretch, Smith still possesses above average speed (4.59 seconds in the 40-yard dash) to go with more than adequate size (6’2”, 218 pounds).  More importantly, he has a strong enough arm to deliver the ball in inclement weather – during his five collegiate games with temperatures below 40 degrees, Smith compiled a 4-1 record, completing 70% of his passes for 1,200 yards and ten touchdowns to one interception.

Weaknesses: It’s rumored one of the main reasons Smith fell in the draft is due to a perceived “diva” attitude.  It was reported he appeared “tuned out” during the pre-draft process and he also immediately fired his agents following his draft-day fall.  Furthermore, it’s been said Smith was having a tough time transitioning to a pro-style offense, as the majority of his snaps in college came from the shotgun formation.  He will need to show a firm grasp on the fundamentals, including footwork and not holding onto the ball too long.

What he needs to do: Even despite Smith’s weaknesses in a pro-style setting, he’s the only current quarterback on the roster to be drafted by New York’s new regime.  With the front office intent on diverging from former GM Mike Tannenbaum’s design, Smith might need only to show competence in a preseason setting.  Simply put, he just needs to tread water with Sanchez.

Upside: Despite the recent rookie successes of players such as Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson, expectations should be tempered.  The Jets are a mess, and should Smith win the starting job this year, it’s more than likely he’ll be playing from behind early and often.  He probably won’t approach fantasy relevance in 2013, but his skill-set and charisma are such that a career as a high-end QB2 with QB1 upside isn’t out of the question.

Prediction

With the positive reports about Smith continuing to emerge from Cortland, New York, this dogfight might be over before it begins.  Smith has yet to throw an interception during training camp and has shown a much bigger arm than Sanchez.  The team’s veterans have taken notice, with star cornerback Antonio Cromartie opining that “I think Geno completed some passes that you don’t see rookies make.” Similarly, receiver Braylon Edwards was quoted as saying “He’s here to start. He has that attitude. You can tell a leadership quality about him that’s in there.”

The dominoes appear to be falling one by one, and for a player like Sanchez whose best calling card is arguably his teammates’ respect, these glowing reviews of his rookie competition aren’t a good sign.  The new management has no loyalty to him, even bringing in journeyman David Garrard to take over the reigns before he was physically unable to continue playing.  Had Garrard been healthy, rumors exist suggesting Sanchez was on the precipice of being released outright.

Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.  The Jets seem to want Smith to win the job and it appears he needs only to prove his competence over the course of the next few weeks.  The metaphorical book has been written on Sanchez, and it’s likely the New York brass has seen enough – Smith will be under center week one and accrue low-end QB2 status in 2013, and Sanchez will be on another team at this point next year.

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eric hardter