ADP Trends: Overvalued/Undervalued
As I spend time with Ryan McDowell’s ADP data from July, there are certain trends that suggest numerous potentially overvalued and undervalued players – that obviously leads to several players to target to trade away or acquire. As we all know by now, the ideal target is a cheap lottery ticket who possesses talent and opportunity. On the flip side, many older players or players with significant risk often carry inflated values. Given a likely stunt in production and remaining viable fantasy seasons due to age or risk, they are overvalued and overdrafted.
Here are several prime targets that jump out in the July data:
Fred Davis, WAS TE23
The hesitation based upon his Achilles injury recovery is understandable, but the misconception that he and RG3 struggled to connect still seems to be carrying weight. After week two, RG3 and Davis were on the same page and performed at an elite level (a top ten equivalent). Zach Ertz, Owen Daniels, Jermaine Gresham, Martellus Bennett and Brandon Myers over Davis? This is an easy choice for one of the best late round adds around pick 175 (i.e., round #14). Insane. Davis is a low risk lottery ticket with top five to ten potential. He’s already looking good in camp and reportedly showing no signs of an Achilles injury hangover.
Emmanuel Sanders, PIT WR59
Sanders is currently drafted behind the likes of Robert Woods, Keenan Allen, Aaron Dobson and Lance Moore. With Mike Wallace in Miami, Sanders should slide into the starting spot in Pittsburgh even with the addition of Markus Wheaton. Wheaton appears better suited to stretch the field. In playing 68% of the team’s snaps in 2012, Sanders finished with 44 catches for 626 yards. You’d expect more production given his number of snaps, but he wasn’t targeted at a high volume. With a shift into the starting lineup, his utilization should increase and so should his snap percentage. Expect a 75%+ range in 2013 and a floor of 700 yards receiving. He’s a bargain at his current ADP given his high floor and upside potential as a starter in an offense in need of another contributor in the passing games with Heath Miller on the shelf and Antonio Brown the only other viable option. He’ll be a solid candidate to be a reliable option on a weekly basis in 2013 and may be earn himself a 2014 free agency contract.
Demarco Murray, DAL RB13
If only he could stay healthy.
Murray couldn’t do it in college and hasn’t done it yet in two NFL seasons, so why take the risk at RB13 for this guy? He can produce, there’s no question, but he can’t stay on the field. That’s too expensive to acquire a player with historically consistent injury issues. Give me Giovani Bernard, Lamar Miller or even Darren Sproles over Murray. There’s nothing worse than paying top dollar for a running back you have to worry about health-wise every week.
Ryan Mathews, SD RB26
He disappointed in 2012 and has the propensity to get injured, but he’s 25 years-old and one year removed from a top ten finish. It’s puzzling why a guy like Mathews is drafted several rounds later than DeMarco Murray. Murray has same injury issues and doesn’t have a top ten finish under his belt. There appears to be a bit of recency bias with Mathews given his struggles in 2012. However, he’s well worth the risk as a second running back with the potential to return to the top ten. Even with the presence and potential RBBC with Danny Woodhead. After all, Mathews only played 55% of the team’s snaps in 2011 and he still finished in the top ten.
TY Hilton, IND WR28
He surprised in his rookie year with an impressive season, but Ahmad Bradshaw is now in the mix, Darius Heyward-Bey was signed and Coby Fleener is 100%. What’s most concerning on its face is that two of Hilton’s three 100-yard plus games came with Fleener out in 2012. While his rookie year was promising, roughly 80 targets over 13 games (or 100 plus target pace) may not be matched given the two viable tight end options, Reggie Wayne, and Bradshaw as offensive focal points. Because of this, it’s difficult to see Hilton as a perennial 1,000-yard candidate, yet he’s drafted at an ADP where that production should be within reach. I’d be surprised to see more than 65-70 receptions given his situation. Pass.
Wes Welker, DEN WR23
This one will reach consensus more than others. While Welker has been there before and will be working with another Hall of Fame quarterback in Denver, he’s aging and now on a team with several viable options including Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. While he has five 100-reception seasons over the last six years, it’s a virtual certainty that he’ll fall short in 2012 and prospectively barring a major injury to either Thomas or Decker. He’ll still get his opportunities, but his ceiling is significantly lower than the past. It’s difficult to justify Welker over guys like Stevie Johnson, Cecil Shorts, Michael Floyd and even Alshon Jeffery. His 2010 season may be the best proxy for his 2013 ceiling.
Jon Baldwin, KC WR77
He gets a bad rap and there have been some negative reports out of camp thus far, but few receivers in this range possess the raw talent of Baldwin. He’s struggled to see consistent snaps playing only roughly 50% in each of his first two seasons. While many are ditching him after two years, he’s shown glimpses. Alex Smith should also be more stable than Matt Cassel. With a null rookie season due to his training camp fight with Thomas Jones and only two seasons total, Baldwin deserves another year of monitoring. He’s a perfect stash given his natural ability. At this price, he’s a worthy target in an effort to give him one more year of evaluation.
EJ Manuel, BUF QB18
Manuel may not start immediately, but he has an easy path to the starter spot at some point in 2013. Kevin Kolb isn’t going to be able to hold him off for long. Manuel possesses the wheels and ability to be a dual threat that’s becoming increasingly productive and popular for fantasy purposes given the success of Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, and RG3. He’s currently being selected after guys like Andy Dalton, Sam Bradford and Big Ben. Two of these are younger quarterbacks with promise, but their ceiling isn’t nearly as high as Manuel’s. He possesses elite potential.
Tyler Eifert, CIN TE9
Eifert is one of the safest rookies in this class with his huge catch radius as match-up nightmare. Word out of Cincinnati is Eifert is everything the front office hoped he’d be. Apparently, he’s “catching everything.” With AJ Green commanding double teams and Eifert spending much of his time split-out wide as a receiver, the rookie tight end should have plenty of opportunities beginning immediately in 2013. Expect him to be a consensus top four dynasty tight end in 2014. Now is the time to grab him.
Shane Vereen, NE RB27
Given the recent camp news about his utilization, expect his ADP to spike in the August mocks. All indications point to Vereen being used as an offensive weapon at different positions all over the field. Given the Patriots’ need for a playmaker on offense, Vereen has the potential to be utilized much like Darren Sproles in New Orleans. With Aaron Hernandez out of the picture, Bill Belichick needs another mismatch – that’s exactly what Vereen creates out of the slot and in the flats. The 2012 Divisional Playoff game against the Texans is a good indication of how I’d expect him to be utilized in 2013.
MJD, JAX RB19 / Steven Jackson, ATL RB21
These two running backs appear to be overdrafted right now. Yes, they may give you a solid 2013, but they’re worthless in the trade department given their age and likelihood each breaks down in the near term given their wear. Give me someone like Le’Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Shane Vereen, Christine Michael, etc. There is so much risk with these two older backs and little upside. The only reason they should be acquired or kept is for a title run. Any middle of the road or questionable team needs to ditch them for any future promise if they haven’t already.
Greg Little, CLE, WR61
The dynasty community is an impatient group. However, this was one player we needed to be patient with. After limited experience at receiver at UNC and a missed year due to NCAA ineligibility, Little has struggled in his first two NFL seasons. I’d argue that should have been expected given how raw we knew he was. It sounds like he’s more focused with a better attitude and putting in extra time at practice. That, coupled with the improvement over the 2012 season with three drops over the last 11 games of 2013 (versus six drops over the first five games), Little is a perfect target at giveaway prices. This upcoming season is the make-or-break year for Little – it wasn’t 2012.
Michael Floyd, ARZ WR35
He continues to pick up steam each month, but Floyd should be slotted in the 20-30 receiver range. He didn’t play consistent or significant snaps until week 12 of 2012, but once he did, he saw a number of targets and produced adequately considering the quarterback play. Arizona’s quarterback position saw a huge upgrade from Ryan Lindley and John Skelton with the addition of Carson Palmer. Many may question ‘huge’ with Palmer, but considering how brutal the quarterback play was for the Cardinals in 2012, it’s warranted. Only a year ago, Floyd was a top seven rookie pick and many are expecting a breakout year, but situated behind guys like TY Hilton, Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, and Wes Welker, for example, is difficult to comprehend. His talent, potential, opportunity, and improved situation is aligned for a 2013 breakout.
