Preseason IDP Watch: Volume One
IDP leagues can be won on the defensive side of the ball with preemptive pickups or trading for players who are on the rise where the masses have not yet caught on. While this becomes increasingly important in–season when situations are quickly changing, it’s also important to follow through training camp and the preseason. Based on OTAs earlier this off-season and the start of training camp, there are a number of trends developing that need to be watched. For certain situations, it’s time to act and acquire/dispose. Here are some players and trends to keep an eye on based on off-season activity to date:
Quanterus Smith, DE DEN
With the loss of Elvis Dumervil, the Broncos have a gap at defensive end. Smith was drafted as Dumervil’s eventual replacement, but he is coming off an ACL injury. Many don’t realize (or forget), but before he tore his ACL last year, Smith was leading the NCAA with 12.5 sacks. That effectiveness sounds as if it’s carried over post-injury according to early training camp reports. Smith is already flashing a burst and pass-rush moves that most rookie defensive ends don’t develop until they gain some experience. Smith’s draft stock fell due to the injury and his inability to attend the Combine and any all-star games – not due to his talent. He’s been under the radar in IDP rookie drafts thus far as a result of his injury, but Smith has significant talent and upside. Don’t be surprised if he’s eventually a DL1. The opportunity to get there sounds as if it may begin early in 2013.
Keenan Robinson, ILB WAS
The promising IDP stash from 2012 rookie drafts and the projected replacement for London Fletcher is out for the 2013 season with a torn pectoral muscle. He missed significant time last season due to the same injury, but last year’s injury was on the other shoulder. There appeared to be an opportunity for snaps in 2013 after spending much of his rookie season on special teams, but those holding out for Robinson may want to consider abandoning ship at this point. It’s unclear where he’ll fit next season after missing a year and a half of football and repeated injuries. Unless your rosters are extremely deep, the spot could be used better elsewhere.
Marcus Gilchrist, SS/CB SD
Gilchrist is going to be moving from cornerback to strong safety in 2013. With Brandon Taylor still recovering from a 2012 torn ACL, it looks like he will start at strong safety for the Chargers this upcoming season. This could be an interesting play if you’re in a corner-required league and Gilchrist is still classified as a corner. If classified as a safety, he’s still a worthy target given the historical production from the Chargers’ safety spot, his tackling ability and the fact he has experience at the safety spot from college and high school. Word out of OTAs is that he’ll also play out of the slot in passing situations, which could mean a high volume of snaps and tackle opportunities. While he and Taylor are likely to compete long-term, it looks like Gilchrist at the very least is a viable safety option for 2013 with Taylor still recovering. He’s a great sleeper candidate for 2013.
Nigel Bradham, ILB BUF
Much of the recent Bills’ linebacker buzz appears to be centered around Kiko Alonso, but expect Bradham to see significant snaps in 2013 with the probability of him securing an every down role in the Bills’ new look defense. Towards the end of 2012, Bradham played well at the 4-3 strongside spot especially given the limited opportunity that comes with the SLB position. Alonso is picking up a lot of steam in the ADP department, but Bradham represents nice value given recent comments from GM Buddy Nix. Nix recently referred to second year player as a three down linebacker noting that the Bills’ new scheme is a perfect fit for the second year linebacker. Bradham will compete with veteran Bryan Scott for the starting spot, but I’d expect the young linebacker to win the job given his athleticism and aggressiveness. It’s a perfect fit for the scheme.
Bruce Irvin, SLB SEA
Not only was Irvin suspended four games after testing positive for performance enhancing drugs, but his position eligibility recently changed from defensive end to linebacker – that’s a nice hit to his IDP value considering that he was considered a high upside defensive end with tremendous sack potential. He’ll compete with Malcolm Smith for the starting strong-side spot, but he should continue to see time at defensive end in pass-rushing situations. He still needs considerable improvement across the board, but view his ceiling as a Mathius Kiwanuka type of strong-side linebacker (i.e., not good). This is better news for KJ Wright who is now cemented as the weakside linebacker.
Brooks Reed, OLB HOU
Something to keep an eye on throughout Texans camp and through preseason is to see where Reed lines up. He’s played the 3-4 outside linebacker position for much of his career to date which has limited his fantasy relevance, but in OTAs earlier this off-season, he saw reps at inside linebacker. There is an available spot next to Brian Cushing on the inside, so there’s a possibility this continues through camp and into the season. If that shift sticks, Reed’s value will spike considerably in tackle-heavy and balanced leagues. Reed isn’t a lock for this spot, but keep tabs on this as there may be prime value here.
Daryl Smith, BAL ILB
The Ravens signed Smith to a one-year contract this off-season. With vacated inside linebacker spots left by Dannell Ellerbe’s signing in Miami and Ray Lewis’ retirement, there is opportunity for production in the middle of Baltimore’s defense. Smith is coming off of rough season where he missed significant time due to injury which left him on the wire in many leagues. With the new opportunity, if healthy and given the situation, it’s possible that Smith can be a viable LB2 in 2013. It’s certainly a risk given his 2012 injury, but there is significant upside available here. He’s worth stashing.
Shea McClellin, DE CHI
In 2012, McClellin spent his rookie season in a rotational role behind veteran Israel Idonije. With the potential he exhibited in practice and in game action during 2012, the Bears decided to let Idonije walk in free agency and not to bring in any other competition – that leaves the second-year end to compete with Corey Wooten who will likely begin they year as starter. Given the disruptive ability McClellin exhibited in his rookie season, as well as the front office’s affection for McClellin, it’s clear he’s at worst looking at increased snaps in 2013. His potential isn’t more clear than in his 22 quarterback hurries on 368 snaps or 36% of the Bear’s snaps. Something to also consider is he’s bulked up since 2012 and worked on his pass-rushing technique throughout the off-season. McClellin is a young defensive end with significant upside and the potential for increased playing time in 2013.
Mark Herzlich, NYG MLB
Herzlich possess the talent to be a top linebacker IDP option. He was headed on that path until diagnosed with cancer during his college years at Boston College. Ultimately, he ended up with a metal rod in his leg and has battled from being undrafted to now the potential 2013 starting middle linebacker for the Giants. Herzlich continues to defy odds and appears to be headed for significant snaps in 2013. The coaching staff continues to praise Herzlich’s leadership and progress. Unless the Giants bring in competition prior to the start of the season, Herzlich should be a viable IDP option with the ability to be a consistent LB3/LB4 on a weekly basis.
Nate Irving, MLB DEN
It appears the once highly regarded IDP prospect will finally get his shot at the starting middle linebacker job as reports are indicating Irving will get the first crack at the starting spot this year. From the coaching staff’s confidence they’ve exhibited in Irving (and maybe it’s just coach speak at this point), it sounds like they believe he has the talent to succeed in the middle of this defense. If he was dropped in your league due to being relegated to special teams in his first two years, he’s worthy of a pick-up. Be aware he’s unlikely to see significant snaps in 2013 as he’s likely to be limited to a two-down role, though. Also keep an eye on Steven Johnson here in deeper leagues should Irving falter.
Tyrann Mathieu, FS/SS ARI
Currently, Rashad Johnson is holding the starting strong safety position for the Cardinals, but rookie Tyrann Mathieu will be running on Johnson’s heels all summer. Johnson isn’t overly talented and is more of a stopgap type of player, while Mathieu has a new lease on life. After getting booted from LSU in August 2012 due to failed drug tests, it appears Mathieu is focused and committed to not being distracted again. Given his talent, it’s going to be tough to keep him off the field if he remains focused and committed. He’s stash worthy in average depth leagues.
Others to Watch
Jordan Hill, DT SEA
The Seahawks need help at defensive tackle – that’s why they drafted Hill and Jesse Williams in April. Early reports out of OTAs noted Hill was impressive and ran with the first team. He has the potential to be a viable defensive tackle option in leagues that require them.  On this strong defense, he may be looking at many one-on-one matchups early in his career. Keep an eye on his performance throughout camp.
Jake Bequette, DE NE
Deep consideration with Bequette, but given his upside he’ll be an important player to watch throughout training camp. He’s currently on the Patriots’ roster bubble, but given his third round draft selection in 2012 and his athletic ability, if he shows improvement in camp/preseason, he’ll make an intriguing IDP option given the Patriots’ need for a third pass-rushing defensive end.
Akiem Hicks, DT NO
If Hicks keeps his DT classification, he may be a sneaky play all season. Early camp reports suggest Hicks is seeing time as a 3-4 defensive end. If that’s the case, he’s likely to see more opportunities than most defensive tackles. Those in tackle required leagues should keep an eye on his usage and position eligibility.
Mathias Kiwanuka, DE NYG
It hasn’t received much attention to date, but Kiwanuka will play more defensive end in 2013 – that spurned a position eligibility change from LB to DE a few months ago. Kiwanuka’s natural and preferred position is defensive end and given the decline in Justin Tuck’s play over the last year or so, Kiwanuka is positioned for increased snaps. He last played defensive end on a consistent basis in 2009 and was effective in getting to the quarterback at that time. The veteran end is a perfect target right now as double-digit sacks are a realistic possibility.
