The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1.) If you are in a league where you can start two quarterbacks, but aren’t required to, how do you alter your strategy? I pick at 1.05, so would it make any sense to open at quarterback, and then grab another one at 2.07 if a Russell Wilson type guy is still around? – Jason in MN
When it comes to superflex leagues, traditional rankings can be thrown out the window. As they represent the highest scoring, most stable position, quarterbacks vault up the list as owners find themselves in a metaphorical arms race to acquire multiple top-tier commodities. If you can start two QB1-caliber signal callers while your league mates are forced to thrust the likes of Jay Cutler or Philip Rivers into their lineups, you’ve effectively improved your weekly floor on a relative scale.
Because of this, it should come as no surprise that this positional amplification carries over to rookie drafts. Though in many cases it’s prudent to simply target the best available player, thereby ignoring position, quarterbacks remain king even if they’re unproven – everyone wants as many good signal callers as possible. Even if you don’t necessarily need an additional quarterback, young prospects still offer high-end trade bait for teams starved for talent under center.
So, how does this relate to the 2013 rookie draft? Even though there aren’t any surefire studs like Andrew Luck or RGIII, your thoughts about the acceptability of using a mid first round pick on a quarterback are correct. I see both Geno Smith and EJ Manuel as acceptable targets from about 1.05 onwards, and both seem likely to see playing time this year. I view both as having future QB2 potential (I’m actually higher on Smith than Manuel, and view him as a future high-end QB2), which means you’ll be acquiring starter-level value.
Moving on, the next tier of rookie signal callers includes Matt Barkley, Mike Glennon and Tyler Wilson. I wouldn’t have a problem using a late second rounder or early third on any of these players, as all three have enough talent to see the field as soon as 2013, and each plays for a team with uncertainty at the position. Finally, if you have the roster space and a spare late round pick, don’t hesitate to select a player like the Giants’ Ryan Nassib or the Steelers’ Landry Jones. Though it’s virtually certain neither will offer anything in the short term, they were both drafted into stable organizations and will have the chance to take their time and learn the ropes – there could be some value here down the line, at a fraction of the cost.
2.) In my 12-team non-PPR league I can keep three of the following: Drew Brees, AJ Green, Ray Rice, CJ Spiller, Larry Fitzgerald and Randall Cobb. I can also keep a fourth player that costs a pick in the round drafted last year – I’m considering Cobb (ninth round) and Spiller (fourth round). Is Cobb too valuable to not keep? Thoughts? – Sean in MO
In a league with an appreciable amount of keepers (in this case four), you need to walk the tightrope between the “win now” and “stay young” strategies. Sure, it would be nice if we could kill two birds with one stone with a quartet of Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, AJ Green and Jimmy Graham, but you’re more likely to win the lottery than stumble into that scenario. In this case, you have some serious decisions to make.
Fortunately, your mix of talent, coupled with your league settings, allows you to build a strong foundation, both now and for the future. Moreover, the ability to designate a player at his original tender is another added luxury. In your case, I’d use this loophole to roster Randall Cobb, as he offers WR2 upside (at the minimum) in a non-PPR setting and you only need to use a ninth round pick on him. He’d more than likely be going in the first round of your dispersal draft, and you get to keep him at a healthy minimum.
In addition to Cobb, I think there are two more obvious choices: Green and CJ Spiller. Both offer elite upside at their respective positions, and more importantly, should accumulate robust statistics for the next few seasons. It wouldn’t surprise me if you wound up keeping Spiller for the next three years, and Green for the next five to seven.
For your last choice, I’d lean towards Ray Rice. I know it’s en vogue right now to assume his fantasy demise is imminent – death by Bernard Pierce! However, he’s still likely to see upwards of 280-300 touches, which is more than can be said for all but a handful of ball carriers. At the shallow running back position, having two studs will pay dividends.
While I like Drew Brees and Larry Fitzgerald, both seem more replaceable in your format. If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a million times – quarterbacks don’t carry a ton of value in smaller league settings. If you aren’t able to snag Brees in the dispersal draft, you’ll be able to get someone of similar or equal value. With Fitzgerald, he’s likely due for a bounce-back, but the receiver pool is deep this year. I’d rather drop him and target a player like Pierre Garcon, who should offer similar output at a lesser price. So to paraphrase my man from Food Network, Ted Allen, “for these reasons, Brees and Fitz been chopped.”
3.) I am the commish of a 14-team dynasty league that is just going into year two. Already I am seeing some pretty top-heavy teams because of some horrible trades (there is no vetoing unless I deem there to be collusion). I don’t want to make a drastic change to the league, but I was wondering if you had any ideas to restore the balance in the league? I was thinking about implementing a salary cap next offseason but I don have any experience with that. Any ideas? – Joe in AL
Unfortunately, I don’t really have a solution for your problem, and there’s one main reason for that: your league is already established. I’m guessing you probably have a protocol in place to govern any potential rule changes, and these generally require a majority vote to pass. Even if you don’t, it would set a terrible precedent to dramatically alter your league format because of a talent discrepancy amongst the teams – that’s a quick way to see a league disband.
The best piece of advice I can give you is to just give it a go for another year. It can take time for neophytes to gain their bearings in a dynasty setting, but you might be surprised at the strides they make in year two. Moreover, things can change in an instant – a strong rookie draft coupled with shrewd trades and waiver acquisitions can lead to a turnaround in as little as a year. So why not see how 2013 goes, and even if nothing changes, at least you’ll have a better grasp on how to form your next league.
4.) In my 12-team PPR/2QB league, I just won my championship, but also don’t want to give up my future. I was offered Matt Stafford for Josh Gordon, DeAndre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson and Brian Quick. My quarterbacks are Joe Flacco and Tom Brady, and I’m deep at receiver. Do I make the trade? – Tai in OR
I mentioned earlier about how the values of quarterbacks rise in a superflex setting. Well, speaking figuratively, if that’s a “hop,” then two-quarterback leagues lead to a value shift more in line with an Olympian’s long jump. In this case, 24 quarterbacks will be starting every single week!
But even with that said, I wouldn’t make the trade. Matt Stafford is a very good quarterback, but his fantasy prowess was completely volume-dependent in 2012. In terms of efficiency, he only averaged 0.452 fantasy points per attempt (of which he had 727 – a league record), “good” for a spot as the 29th most efficient signal caller. This value was less than the output of quarterback luminaries such as Kevin Kolb, Jake Locker and Christian Ponder, to name a few.
Taking it one step further, is it time to re-adjust our expectations of Stafford? I understand he’s young, has a cannon for an arm and throws to the best receiver in the NFL, but is he any sort of lock to again soar into the rarified air of the 40-touchdown club like he did in 2011? Tom Brady and Peyton Manning only accomplished that feat once and Drew Brees has only done it twice. More importantly, it’s extremely far-fetched to expect Stafford to approach the 45.4 passing attempts per game (again, a league record) that he saw last year. You can still attempt to trade for him in order to upgrade Joe Flacco, but you shouldn’t be paying a premium price.
Let’s consider an alternative – instead of parting with Brian Quick, Josh Gordon (who I touched upon last week), DeAndre Hopkins and Cordarrelle Patterson (both of whom are routinely taken in the first round of rookie drafts), why not dangle Flacco as trade bait? He’s a solid QB2 in this format, and Stafford only outscored him by 4.1 points per game in 2012. I think an offer of Flacco, Quick, a future draft pick and either Patterson OR Hopkins is more than fair. If he balks, so be it – remember, you still have a championship caliber team as is.
5.) For a non-PPR dynasty, how would you rank the following running backs: Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall, Mark Ingram, Bernard Pierce, Jacquizz Rodgers and Mike Goodson? I need to keep three of them. – Leech in Toronto
In terms of your keeper requirements, what we’re really looking at here are three guys for two spots. Darren McFadden is easily the best of the above players, and a RB1 when healthy – he’s your easiest decision. Conversely, Jacquizz Rodgers and Mike Goodson are merely third-down backs, and lose a ton of value in non-PPR leagues. Make like a pair of scissors and cut ‘em!
That leaves us with the choice of getting rid of one of Rashard Mendenhall, Mark Ingram and Bernard Pierce. In order to make this decision, let’s consider each player’s upside as it relates to a combination of talent and situation. By doing so, as crazy as it sounds, I’m going to advise you to part ways with a former first round pick on one of the NFL’s best offenses – Ingram.
Mendenhall had a down year in 2012, but that was due, in large part, to the lingering effects of an ACL tear suffered towards the end of the 2011 season. He might not be spectacular, but he’s reunited with his former coach Bruce Arians and appears to be a shoo-in for lead back duties in Arizona. More importantly, he’s the only one of the three who’s proven the ability to shoulder the load for a full season.
Pierce might be lacking Mendenhall’s opportunity, but he more than makes up for it in talent. Potentially chipping into Ray Rice’s workload in Baltimore, it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Pierce to flirt with upwards of 10-12 touches per game. Throwing in the occasional touchdown, that could be good enough for FLEX-level production. Unlikely as it may be (he’s hasn’t missed a game in four years), if Rice were to go down, Pierce would instantly fly onto the RB1 radar.
When it comes to Ingram, it gets a lot tougher to dole out compliments. Thus far in his brief career, he hasn’t carried the ball more than 156 times in a single season and also has yet to break four yards per carry. He’s virtually useless in the passing game, and is also set to split time with Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, and potentially Travaris Cadet as well. It might be too soon to label him a bust, but he certainly hasn’t come anywhere near justifying his lofty draft status – subsequently, he shouldn’t come anywhere near your roster either.
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