Over/Under: Andy Dalton

Eric Olinger

andy_dalton

Welcome to another installment of “Over/Under” where I highlight a player, determine some projections based on past tendencies, then state whether I think they will go “over or under” those projections. The criteria will be different for each player based on position and situation.

This week’s debate will focus on Andy Dalton. We will put our betting line at 4,000 yards and 29 touchdowns.

Andy Dalton has been compared to Chad Pennington ever since entering the league in 2011. He’s been called a game manager who won’t win you games, but won’t lose them either. His arm strength has been questioned more than Aaron Hernandez lately and he has been blamed for holding A.J. Green back from becoming the league’s most dominant receiving threat. What people seem to refuse to accept is Dalton has been a top 15 quarterback in each of his first two seasons, even finishing as the QB12 in 2012. In short, he has been a serviceable and steady low-end QB1 being drafted as a mid-level QB2. In a game which thrives on value, Dalton might be one of the games’ best.

The truth is, these aren’t the Bengals we’ve grown used to. Gone are the “look at me” trouble making divas like Chad “Ochocinco” Johnson and Terrell Owens. The players who couldn’t wait to get out of the Queen City, like Carson Palmer, have been replaced with young players looking to make names for themselves like Dalton.The Bengals aren’t the perennial cellar dwellers we remember, coming off back-to-back playoff berths for the first time since the 80’s. They have a very talented stable of offensive weapons at Dalton’s disposal and he has better odds of improving his game than regressing. A.J. Green is already one of the top five wide receivers in the NFL, now their search for a reliable WR2 continues in house with a pair of sophomore wide receivers in Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones. Sanu is expected to give Dalton a Swiss army knife type of weapon as a receiver, runner, and even in the Wildcat package. Adding to an already solid attack from the tight end position with Jermaine Gresham, the Bengals added former Notre Dame tight end Tyler Eifert in the first round of this year’s draft as well.

The best weapon a quarterback can have is a solid running game to complement him and the Bengals gave their stable of backs an infusion of talent this off-season when they drafted their feature back of the future, Giovani Bernard. He was the first running back off the board in this year’s draft and he offers elite three down ability. Even though he’s expected to share time with BenJarvus Green-Ellis to start the season, it would be a real shock if he wasn’t the ground game’s focal point by midseason after the “Law Firm” failed to impress. Ironically, Green-Ellis’ 2012 season was nearly identical to Cedric Benson’s 2011 season for the Bengals. When you look at Gio Bernard’s final season with the Tar Heels, you see evidence of the most complete back the Bengals have had in 20+ years. He offers explosiveness in the passing game players like Benson, Green-Ellis, Rudi Johnson and Corey Dillon could not while adding hard nose running change of pace options like Bernard Scott, Kenny Watson, Chris Perry, and Eric Bieniemy didn’t have. I know it’s not a fair barometer comparing collegiate to pro statistics, but you can still see how dynamic Bernard’s skills are compared to what the power backs have offered Dalton.

Season

Player

Games

Team

Att

Yds

Yds/Att

TD

Tgts

Rec

Yds

TD

Fum

Lost

Fant Pts

2012

G. Bernard

10

UNC

184

1228

6.7

12

N/A

47

490

5

N/A

N/A

320.8

2012

B. Green-Ellis

16

CIN

278

1094

3.9

6

29

22

104

0

3

2

173.8

2011

C. Benson

16

CIN

273

1067

3.9

6

22

15

82

0

5

2

161.9

*Based on 1pt for 10 yds rushing, 6 pts for TD, 1pt per rec, 1pt for 10 yds rec, -2 per fumble lost

In my opinion, this is by far the strongest supporting cast Dalton has played with in his underappreciated pro career. Looking at his first two years worth of statistics give us reasons for optimism. While attempting almost the exact same number of passes per game, Dalton increased his completion percentage by 4.2%. His yardage increased by 271 yards on the season and his touchdown total rose from 20 to 27 through the air while adding an additional four scores on the ground, another underappreciated aspect of his game.

Season

GS

Comp

Att

Pct

Yds

TD

Int

Rush Yds

Yds/Att

TD

Fantasy Points

QB Ranking

2012

16

329

528

62.3

3669

27

16

120

2.6

4

250.76

QB12

2011

16

300

516

58.1

3398

20

13

152

4.1

1

207.12

QB15

 

 

While a lot of people believe the Bengals will only go as far as Dalton will take them, I don’t see the problem with that. He has good chemistry with A.J. Green and Jermaine Gresham, so I expect him to take the next step and show continued improvement by breaking the 4,000 yard mark and eclipsing 30 touchdowns this season, therefore I’m taking the over. Adding Tyler Eifert in the red zone should easily give him the additional 5-6 touchdowns needed this season. Getting Mohamed Sanu back will be huge for both Dalton and offensive coordinator Jay Gruden who was just figuring out how to use him when he went down with a broken foot. With a quick twitch West Coast Offense, Dalton should get the ball into his young playmakers’ hands and rack up plenty of yards after the catch. Even though he gets compared to Chad Pennington, he reminds me more of a Raiders era Rich Gannon. Without elite arm strength like a Matthew Stafford or a Ben Roethlisberger, he thrives by being an intelligent decision maker. With the revamped running game he should see fewer defenders dropping into coverage, instead, they’ll be keeping tabs on Bernard in the flats.

According to Ryan McDowell’s ADP data, Dalton has seen his ADP go from the QB20 in March to the QB19 in April, and then settling as the QB15 in May and June, between Roethlisberger and Eli Manning. Our rankers tend to agree with the ADP data, we collectively have him ranked as the QB17 in dynasty start-up drafts.

What do you think? Are you taking the “Over or Under” on Andy Dalton throwing 4,000 yards and 29 touchdowns? Let me know in the comments below.

eric olinger
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