One Man’s Trash

Karl Safchick

pierce
The other day I was chatting about fantasy football at work, as I always do. Seemingly every day my co-workers get tired of hearing my work friends and I talk about yards per carry, average draft position and red-zone targets. To them, it sounds as if we are speaking in ancient Sanskrit.  However, on rare occasions, certain co-workers try to include themselves in the conversation, providing me with their two cents. More often than not, their information is either simple, outdated, or in many cases, completely inaccurate.

Defective information from fantasy newcomers doesn’t anger or frustrate me, though. I actually enjoy hearing people who normally wouldn’t ever talk in-depth about football try to do so. Selfishly, it grows a business in which I would benefit from industry growth and it provides me with a larger audience in which to talk to about my passion. It’s also human nature to try to involve yourself in a conversation in which the majority of people around you are communicating.

Years ago, a few attractive women at a restaurant I worked at were talking about their favorite Ryan Gosling movies. One woman stated that her favorite was “Crazy Stupid Love.” The others interjected saying that his best was obviously “The Notebook.” I felt I had pertinent information for this conversation. “‘Drive’ was really bad-ass” I exclaimed, feeling valiant that I had just solved the theory of relativity. I was from then on excluded from any future chick-flick related conversations.

What do Ryan Gosling movies have to do with fantasy football? Not much (I’ll admit), but the conversation I had about a subject in which I know little, does. While the chick-flick industry has a pretty limited audience (women and their short-leashed significant others), the fantasy football industry is growing. In 2012, it was estimated over 65 million people played fantasy football (Ipsos Public Affairs for the Fantasy Sports Trade Association).  The next time someone asks you a question that doesn’t seem fit for someone of your stature with your infinite pool of fantasy knowledge, involve them instead of excluding them, or in my case, write an article about it.

So, a guy comes up to me at work and says that he checked out my Dynasty Top-300 Rankings. This is a guy who watches and enjoys football, knows the players names, but knows about as much about why players are ranked where they are as I know about why women think that Paul Walker is a talented actor. News Flash: He’s Not. This guy asks me why there are multiple running backs from the same team ranked in the top 32 of overall running backs. His question makes perfect sense to the layman. Why wouldn’t the thrity-second best starter in the NFL be worth more in dynasty than the best back-up? Why would I rank Shane Vereen and Christine Michael over Vick Ballard and Jonathan Stewart?

The simple answer is I could see the two backups being starters down the road, while I don’t see the other two being able to hold on to their jobs long term.

If you have a dynasty start-up draft approaching, there are a few players who I want you to take the “backup” label off of when drafting. Remember, most of the top running backs being drafted this year were once back-ups for their respective teams. Ray Rice was drafted to back up Willis McGahee, Alfred Morris was considered to be the fourth option in Washington before training camp in 2012, C.J. Spiller was once the third ball carrier for the Buffalo Bills and Arian Foster was an undrafted afterthought, fighting to make the practice squad on the Houston Texans.

Who are this year’s Rice, Morris, Spiller and Foster? There are a few players I really like for reasons such as talent, opportunity and situation. Not exactly E=MC₂, but hopefully helpful nonetheless. I’ll rank them as BRB5 – BRB1. (BRB = Backup Running Back)

BRB5: Mark Ingram, RB NO

Talent: Ingram was drafted in the first round of the 2011 draft by the New Orleans Saints and is still only 23 years old. There is an ever-growing theory that Nick Saban wears down his ball carriers worse than the original tires on my 2009 Corolla, but Ingram averaged only 191 carries over his three year career at Alabama. Trent Richardson had 283 carries in his junior year and Eddie Lacy had 204 carries as a junior. While Ingram didn’t accumulate an abundance of college miles, he’s been able to take it even more slowly in his NFL career, averaging only 139 rushing attempts in this first two seasons. His legs should be more fresh than the Prince of Bel Air.

Opportunity: Darren Sproles will be 31 years old in 2014 and will be owed $4.25 million, none of which is guaranteed. Pierre Thomas is owed $2.9 million in 2014, with none of his salary guaranteed, either. With no guaranteed money being owed to Ingram’s competition, he could be the primary ball carrier by the next Winter Olympics.

Situation: The Saints’ offense has been known for rushing the ball about as often as I turn down free beer, but Drew Brees can’t average 650+ attempts for much longer. While I won’t suggest that Brees isn’t in the Saints’ future, I could see the team leaning more heavily on the run in future years.

BRB4: Bernard Pierce, RB BAL

Talent: The Baltimore Ravens already have a premier back in the NFL in Rice, but Pierce could be the most talented backup in the league. He was drafted in the third round in 2012 and the Ravens have grown to use him more in their rushing attack. Pierce averaged six carries per game in the regular season, but the Ravens leaned on him to the tune of ten carries per game in the postseason. Over the span of the entire year, Pierce averaged just over five yards per carry. Rice recently said in an interview with NFL AM that “sharing touches (doesn’t) bother me” and that Pierce is a “great runner.”

Opportunity: While Pierce may be my favorite backup in the league, he could be the furthest away from seeing full-time duty. Rice is owed guaranteed money through the 2016 season and has shown no signs of slowing down. The best case scenario for Pierce is if he was somehow traded to a running back needy team in 2014, or (God forbid) if Ray Rice were to be injured.

Situation: The Ravens are a run first team. Despite being one of the top paid players in the league, Joe Flacco will never be a 45-50 attempts per game quarterback. The Ravens have lost Vonta Leach to free agency, but have expressed interest in signing him for a lesser amount. When and if Pierce sees full-time duty, Leach will almost certainly not be wearing purple and black.

BRB3: Christine Michael, RB SEA

Talent: The aforementioned Michael was probably the most talented running back to come out of the 2013 NFL draft. Character and injury concerns plagued him at Texas A&M. He is fully healthy now and his new head coach with the Seattle Seahawks, Pete Caroll, has been known to get the best out of players with questionable character.

Opportunity: Many people believe the reason Michael isn’t a “buy” is that he will not get the opportunity to prove himself. As of now there are two guys ahead of him on the depth chart – Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin. Turbin was underwhelming in limited duty in 2012. Marshawn Lynch is due a bulky $9 million in 2014. It is not out of the realm of possibility to think he could be cut to save that money. There have also been rumblings of a possible suspension for Lynch in 2013 (perhaps testing positive for Skittles). All of these factors could get Michael on the field sooner rather than later.

Situation: The Seahawks have a very effective running game. With Russell Wilson attracting attention of defenses and the emergence of the pistol/read option offense, Michael could fit right in. The Seahawks have a skilled offensive line and a coach who wants to run the ball. Michael also ran a version of the read option in college.

BRB2; Shane Vereen, RB NE

Talent: The most talented running back on the New England Patriots could be Shane Vereen. Stevan Ridley has seen more field time than Vereen, but many forget that Vereen was selected 17 spots ahead of Ridley – late in the 2011 draft’s second round. Bill Belichick want’s to get both of them involved in 2013, made evident by their 65/35 split in the playoffs.

Opportunity: There is no reason to think Ridley isn’t in the Patriot’s future plans. He has a very cap-friendly contract and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them try to get him locked up for another couple of years. The Hoodie loves to use multiple running backs, though, and I envision the Patriots’ organization having both backs involved in the future.

Situation: In the past couple years, the Patriots have developed into a run-first team, as they were during their Super Bowl runs. In 2012, they averaged 32.7 attempts per game, good for 2nd most in the NFL. With the loss of Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd and most importantly, Danny Woodhead, the Patriots have a hole to fill in the short passing game. Vereen could fit in perfectly in that Woodhead/Kevin Faulk role.

BRB1: Giovani Bernard, RB CIN

Talent: My favorite back-up was the first running back drafted in the 2013 NFL draft and I actually feel slightly guilty calling Giovani Bernard a backup running back. It’s pretty much common knowledge he won’t be a backup very long. Regardless if you like players like Le’Veon Bell, Montee Ball or Eddie Lacy better (which I don’t), they are already being considered by most to be starters for their respective teams. Bernard was electrifying for the North Carolina Tar Heels and will start the year as the second running back for the Cincinnati Bengals. It won’t be long until the Bengals make him the primary ball carrier.

Opportunity: Benjarvus Green-Ellis is owed $3 million in 2014 and it would cost the Bengals only $500,000 to cut him. Even if the Bengals were to keep Green-Ellis beyond this year, Bernard should easily be the bell-cow for the foreseeable future.

Situation: These aren’t your father’s Bengals. They actually have talent and competition at every position on offense, including their offensive line. A.J. Green will keep the extra safety out of the box. Offensive coordinator Jay Gruden has hinted at employing many two tight end sets, which could provide an extra blocker for the running game. Bernard is excellent in space. The Bengals conceptualize him being a Sproles/Rice hybrid.

It isn’t hard to imagine how a fantasy beginner would wonder why I, and many fantasy rankers, have players who are not atop their team’s depth chart, ranked above players first on another team’s depth chart. This is fairly common knowledge for seasoned dynasty drafters, though. Most people reading this will already understand that concept and will already have their own favorite back-up running backs.

Comment below and tell me who they are. Do you rank Danny Woodhead, Shonn Greene or Zac Stacy ranked higher? Why?

Follow me on Twitter @KarlSafchick