Late Round Gems

In recent years quarterbacks have been the top overall selections in the NFL Draft and fantasy owners have been spoiled by instant impact from these players.  Last year was highlighted by top picks Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III and even the late onset of Russell Wilson.  In 2011 Cam Newton set a new standard for rookie quarterbacks when he finished as the fourth best player in fantasy leagues, just several points behind legend Tom Brady.  Even in 2010, Sam Bradford’s great season landed him the rookie of the year award.

The 2013 NFL Draft tells a different story.  There was never any overall consensus of a top rookie quarterback, with rankings from highly regarded sources truly all over the board.  In this year’s draft we saw one first round selection with E.J. Manuel, and all others slid further than expected.  It’s no secret quarterbacks haven’t been the focus in this year’s draft, and as a result, we have to dig a little bit deeper to find skilled players who have fallen off the radar.

Before the most recent DLF three-round rookie mock draft, I gave myself an assignment.  Having been given the eleventh spot, I vowed I would write a Late Round Gems article about whoever I decided was best player available and selected with the 3.11 pick.

Now I must admit I had a bias entering the draft.  I’ve been high on Tyler Wilson all off-season, have been targeting him in all of my leagues and was secretly hoping he’d fall to me this late.  If he didn’t I was going to have to make the more difficult decision of whether I write this article about him anyway, or just give him an honorable mention.  Fortunately I wasn’t forced to face this predicament and with the 3.11 draft pick I was able to secure Wilson.

Wilson’s College Prospectus

Weighing in at 215 pounds while standing 6’2″, Tyler Wilson sat on the bench during his early years at Arkansas while watching Ryan Mallett lead the offense.  It wasn’t until his junior season that Wilson got the starting role, following his predecessor’s departure to the NFL.  When he finally took the reins during the 2011 season, he impressed scouts by passing for 3,638 yards and tallying for 24 touchdowns with just six interceptions.

Over his time at Arkansas he has exhibited a good combination of arm strength, accuracy and delivery, but what separates Wilson from this year’s rookie quarterbacks is his fantastic pocket presence.  He is well known for being able to hang in the pocket and make the tough throws under pressure.  He doesn’t shy away from contact and has shown a willingness to take a hit in order to finish his reads and deliver the ball.  Wilson is a tough kid who has shown durability time and time again.

This mentality cannot be stressed enough.  We’ve seen so many talented collegiate quarterbacks like Blaine Gabbert make it the to the NFL on top picks, only to crumble in the pocket under pressure, and from there develop a host of other problems.  The ability to play the quarterback position from inside the pocket is so necessary to have success in the NFL and a major reason why Tyler Wilson will be able to translate his game at the next level.

Following his junior season he gained quite a bit of national attention and accolades from scouts.  Many of them deemed him to be a top pick in the 2013 draft class (Sports Illustrated even predicted he would be the number one overall selection) following his decision to return for one more year of college ball.

The Fall of a Giant

Quite unexpectedly, Wilson’s draft stock fell extensively during his senior season.  From a statistical standpoint, he threw for just 250 less yards through the air while maintaining above a 62% completion rate (only one percent lower than in 2011).   He threw just three less touchdowns, though his number of interceptions (13) more than doubled.  Now although these statistics represent drop-offs across the board, aside from interceptions, these stats were relatively on par from the previous year.  It should be considered he was able to maintain similar numbers directly following the loss of his top three wide receivers to the NFL and the firing of his head coach, Bobby Petrino.

It’s not to say his game was without flaws.  Following the departure of his starting receiving squad, he tended to force the ball to his only two returning options.  He didn’t have nearly as much time to make his reads, which often led to dictating his throws and delivering the ball with less accuracy.  These factors certainly explain the uptick in interceptions.

Perhaps the greatest reason for his fall on draft boards was ultimately the lack of success the Arkansas program was having as a whole, which won just four games all season.  Nonetheless, and perhaps unjustifiably so, in just one year Wilson’s stock went from an expected top selection to a mid-round flier.

An Opportunity Awaits

For dynasty players, this isn’t such bad thing.  Rather than selling into this downtrend, I see this as an opportunity to acquire a promising player at a low cost. Wilson is still the same player who led Arkansas to just its third 11-2 season in the lengthy history of the program. Once surrounded again with talent he should get the chance to prove he can be a starter in the NFL.

Another factor suppressing Wilson’s value has been the perception he faces an adverse situation in Oakland, which I disagree with whole-heartedly.  I recognize he was not drafted to be the day one starter, but his competition in Oakland is not superior.  Beating out Terrelle Pryor should be child’s play and Matt Flynn may be paid like a low tier starter, but he has lost the starting gig before – coincidentally to another rookie by the name of Wilson.

Thus far, reports from OTAs regarding Wilson have been glowing.  He has been making a big impression on the Raiders’ coaching staff and this is before he even put any pads on.  Due to his impressive pocket presence and tough mentality, live action is expected to further separate him from the competition.  Although Flynn may be given the upper hand entering camp, he has done nothing to secure the position as the starter.  In all reality, Wilson is more or less in the competition for the job.  Even if he does not outright win it for week one, he will be nipping at Flynn’s heels all season long.  It is likely Wilson will start a few games by the season’s end if Flynn can’t string together some wins.

A Low-Risk Dynasty Investment

Thus far I have acquired Tyler Wilson in all of my leagues.  In terms of his cost, so far I have selected him in the fourth round in rookie drafts, as a late flier in a startup (late nineteenth round), and for just $1.00 in an auction league.  Of course he’s no lock in lineups and, in fact, still has to fight for a job in Oakland, but this is an incredibly small price to pay for a player who was predicted by some to be the top overall pick just one year ago.

The upside is there and he absolutely has the potential to develop into a starting NFL caliber quarterback.  Success can never be guaranteed, but the high likelihood he gets a shot at the starting gig will represent a scenario in which his value is bound to rise from here.  For the minute level of risk needed, Oakland’s Tyler Wilson is a worthy investment.  At some point he’ll get his chance, so I’m buying in now.