The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.) and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1.) In my 16-team non-PPR league where we start three receivers and a WR/TE FLEX, I waited until late in the draft to start building my receiving corps, focusing on other positions early. I’m now torn between the likes of Kenny Britt, who could be a star or a bust just as easily, or someone “safer” like Mike Williams, Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson or even Cecil Shorts. Thoughts? – Matt in England
Given your league size and starting requirements, I think you might’ve waited a bit too long before addressing your pass catchers. However, hindsight is always 20/20, and we now need to assess your squad moving forward. As I’ve said multiple times, when it comes to deeper leagues, studs players reign supreme, so I’d go with the player who possesses the highest potential to become one – Kenny Britt.
It’s true, when one considers Britt, his raw talent usually comes in a distant third behind his knuckleheaded behavior and susceptibility to injuries. Regardless of that fact, he nonetheless combines size (6’3”, 215 pounds), speed (4.50 second 40-yard dash) and youth (24 years old) into one supremely talented package. The last time he was fully healthy in 2011, before an ACL tear wrecked his season only 10 quarters in, Britt had already compiled 17 receptions for 289 yards and three touchdowns, a pace worthy of an elite-level WR1.
2012 was a lost season, but according to teammates, Britt was reportedly “explosive” at Titans’ OTA’s, and “looked great.” Going into a contract year, the sky is the limit for Britt, as long as he keeps his head on straight. In terms of the players you’re considering, Britt’s upside is by far the greatest, regardless of any associated risk.
To that last point, ironically, the other players you mentioned each come with uncertainty of their own. Cecil Shorts III suffered two concussions in the span of a month in 2012 and is potentially one big hit away from becoming the next Austin Collie or Jahvid Best. Jeremy Maclin has only put together one full season, and hasn’t surpassed 70 receptions and 964 yards in any of them. DeSean Jackson is explosive, but to this date has been a bit of a one-trick pony deep threat. Both Jackson and Maclin are also facing the unpredictability of new head coach Chip Kelly’s offense.
Mike Williams is, by far, the safest of all the players you mentioned, but his upside is representative of a touchdown-dependent WR2. You can find that type of stability in later rounds, but not necessarily upper echelon talent. For these reasons, I’d go with Britt.
2.) In my 10-team non-PPR league, I get to keep six players from my previous year’s roster. The candidates are Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Stevan Ridley, Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Randall Cobb, Percy Harvin and Jimmy Graham. We start one quarterback, two running backs, three receivers, a tight end and a FLEX – who should I keep? – Will in DC
In addition to the difficulty of distinguishing amongst the plethora of talent on your team, the non-PPR format adds an additional twist. Players like Randall Cobb and Percy Harvin, both reception-machines during their short careers, lose an appreciable amount of value. Other players like Stevan Ridley, who function as touchdown-scoring mavens, benefit in this setting. We’re looking at an enigma, wrapped in a riddle, shrouded in mystery!
Therefore, to answer your question, let’s start with the obvious – Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones transcend format and are locks for your roster. Jimmy Graham is in a tier unto himself at tight end, affording you a weekly advantage over your competition – he sticks as well. From there, it gets trickier.
Given his afore-mentioned scoring ability, I’d keep Ridley as well. With the Patriots’ current dearth of pass catchers, it’s reasonable to expect an increase in rushing attempts, and Ridley is the most accomplished back on the roster. Rounding out your running back corps, I’d elect to hang onto Darren McFadden as well. No, he probably won’t last an entire season, but he’s the only weapon on that offense, and a shift back to the power run game favors his skill set.
With five keepers in hand, it’s time to play the elimination game. In a ten-team league, quarterbacks are devalued, so even though both Andrew Luck and Matt Ryan are high-end options, you should be able to find similar output in the dispersal draft. Matt Forte is steady, but aging, and doesn’t get into the end zone nearly often enough. Therefore, the decision now comes down to Harvin and Cobb.
For me, the choice is Percy Harvin. Cobb is a very good player whose value is clearly on the rise, but he’s just not the Swiss-Army knife Harvin is. For his career, Harvin supplements his pass-catching prowess with almost two rushing attempts per game and that has the potential to increase in Seattle’s erstwhile read-option offense. He’s by far the best receiver on the team and de facto number-one option in the passing game, something Cobb can’t say – consequently, Harvin’s my choice.
3.) I currently have Adrian Peterson and Doug Martin as my top two running backs and also have David Wilson, Lamar Miller and Ryan Mathews. I’ve been offered Andre Brown for Ryan Mathews – does it make sense to move a starting back, even with the frustrations of Mathews, in order to handcuff Wilson? – Matt in MN
I’ve recently seen a lot of buzz on Twitter regarding the practice of handcuffing running backs. In short, you need to ask yourself one question – does the handcuff in question carry any type of standalone value? In the case of Andre Brown, I believe he does. Brown is set to function as one half of the Giants’ running back by committee backfield and will also be the likely recipient of the coveted goal line carries. Because of this, he’s a sensible target for any and every David Wilson owner.
With that said, Brown’s value still doesn’t approach that of Ryan Mathews, even despite his status as an injury-prone perennial tease. Though he’s coming off a down year in 2012, Mathews is still slated to receive the bulk of the carries in San Diego’s backfield and is a prime candidate for a bounce-back season. I can’t fault you for wanting to trade the Chargers’ fourth year ball carrier, but you should set your sights higher. You won’t be able to receive value commensurate with Mathews’ skills until he strings together a couple of good games, and it’s at that point when I’d look to make a deal.
4.) I am in a 16-team PPR dynasty league where we keep 15 players. I currently own CJ Spiller, Chris Ivory, Mark Ingram, AJ Green, Dez Bryant, Mike Williams, Rueben Randle, Brian Quick, Leonard Hankerson and Riley Cooper. I also have picks 1.03, 1.10, and 1.16 upcoming draft. I am somewhat crazy about draft picks and I was wondering if I should trade CJ Spiller for picks 1.04 and 1.11? I figured I could get two or possibly three rookie running backs and hit on one or two of them. I am a bit concerned with Spiller handling bell-cow duties for the first time. Thoughts? – Tony in NY
For the love of the Fantasy Gods, please step off the ledge and click out of your league website immediately! You’re about to do something crazy and I want the chance to talk you out of it. It’s time for an intervention – DLF Mailbag style.
If a player like Doug Martin is fantasy gold, CJ Spiller is silver at worst. In 2012, he functioned as the overall PPR RB6, despite receiving only 250 total touches. In order to accomplish this feat, Spiller had to be ridiculously efficient, and he didn’t disappoint with a downright mind-boggling average of 1.05 fantasy points per touch. You may have reservations about Spiller’s increased workload, but he handled 63 carries (72 total touches) over the season’s final three weeks and came out the other side just fine. Functioning as the undisputed lead back is a boon to Spiller’s dynasty value.
Just to play Devil’s Advocate though, let’s theorize what would happen if you made the trade. Giovani Bernard will likely be gone before your first pick, meaning if you truly want to go heavy on ball carriers, you’re looking at two of the three of Eddie Lacy, Montee Ball and Le’Veon Bell at picks 1.03 and 1.04. All three players come with question marks, and none have anything close to resembling Spiller’s upside.
Later down the round, it’s a 50/50 proposition at best that players like Zac Stacy or Christine Michael will be available when you pick at 1.10/1.11. Both players are skilled, but their rookie ADP’s are beginning to ascend due to hype. Again, I’m not seeing a strong likelihood of filling the void trading Spiller would leave you with.
Who knows, maybe things would work out for you, and a few of the guys you draft become starting-caliber, perhaps even above average assets. However, as I stated when I responded to the first question, studs rule in deep formats – Spiller is a definitive stud, and should function as the centerpiece of your roster. So hold tight, go to your doctor and fill a prescription for whatever it is that cures the Rookie Fever currently ailing you!
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