Overhyped Rookies
It is now officially summer time, and there was much rejoicing…
Summer time means lots of things like barbeques, jet skiing, fishing, golfing, no snow on the ground for those of us up north, and many other things. It is also just about the only time of the year where there really isn’t anything happening on the NFL calendar. OTAs end by the middle of June and training camp really doesn’t kick off until August or maybe the last week in July if we’re lucky – that leaves a six week period where year round enthusiasts like all of us are left to their own devices to create their own news with the exception of when someone does something stupid like Aaron Hernandez.
What do we do with those six weeks? Well, most of us go back and start to comb over rosters trying to find the next big thing. This could be a returning player that is poised for a breakout, but because we all like the nice new, shiny toys this most often takes the form of a rookie. We look over their college highlights and get so worked up about how they are going to be the next Adrian Peterson or Calvin Johnson that we start to tell everyone that they are the must have rookie in this year’s class. With everyone doing this, groups naturally form among people that support the same player which just fuels the hype even more. When you throw in a few mock drafts where someone missed out on “their guy” by a few picks due to a like-minded individual sniping them, it just pushed that player up boards even more. Eventually, players who were second round talents are now being taken in the middle or early parts of the first round because people feel like they need to be taken there to ensure they don’t miss out on them.
I’m here to throw a bit of cold water on some of the rookie hype (and probably get ripped apart by the foaming at the mouth supporters of those rookies) and tell you to slow the hype train down a little bit with a few of them. I’m not saying that they aren’t (or won’t be) good players. I’m just saying that in my opinion, their hype has pushed them higher up draft boards than they actually belong, making the risks greater than the potential rewards.
For this write-up, I’m going to give the “hype value” of each player, which I’ll define as being where that player’s supporters are talking about his value being. I’ll also give the “realistic value” which is where I think they actually belong on draft boards in a PPR league. I’ll then provide my rationale and views on that player. Without further ado, here is my list of over-hyped and likely over-drafted rookies in no particular order.
Christine Michael, RB SEA
Hype Value: Top 3 pick, Top running back on the board
Realistic Value: Late first round or early second round
Rationale: From a pure talent perspective, I can understand people looking at Michael as being one of the top players in this draft. He has the size, strength and speed to be a successful NFL running back. Unfortunately, as we have seen for years, success in the NFL encompasses a whole lot more than just raw talent.
My biggest concern is he just can’t stay on the field for a variety of reasons. In his four years of college, he never topped 170 carries in a season, let alone the 270 or more a primary running back tends to see in the NFL. He mostly missed games due to injuries, the two most severe being a broken leg as a sophomore and then tearing the ACL on his other leg during his junior year. In his senior year he had only 88 carries and posted his career low YPC average (to be fair, it was still a respectable 4.7 YPC).
The injuries alone add a question mark to his resume that knocks him out of that top level in my opinion. In my mind, I have some questions about his dedication and motivation to the game as well. Anyone who oversleeps on the day of the interview for their dream job raises my eyebrows. When you add in some issues with his coaches in college that were severe enough for the head coach to bench one of his best players for most of the year I have some concerns. While these aren’t legal issues, there are still enough players who create headaches and it impacts their playing time. Just think about former second round pick Titus Young being released by the Lions even though he didn’t have any legal trouble at the time. Michael also has some ball security issues, but that can be fixed with some hard work and coaching.
He has enough risks that I can’t advocate considering him until the late first round or better yet in the second round.
Zac Stacy, RB STL
Hype Value: Middle of the first round
Realistic Value: Middle or late second round
Rationale: Let me start off by saying I really like Stacy. His character and dedication are about as high as you will find from any college graduate, let alone a college football player. He is exactly the kind of player NFL teams want in their locker room. He’s mature, a hard worker and has some talent, not to mention he is in a pretty good situation on a young team with an up and coming offense without a locked in starting running back.
What’s the problem then?
Like I said earlier, Stacy has some talent. However, he doesn’t have exceptional talent, especially in the acceleration and burst departments. In fact, he might not even be the most talented running back on his team. From a pure talent perspective, Isaiah Pead just might have him beat. Pead had a rough rookie season and I’m not convinced Pead is a bell cow back by any means. My guess is Stacy will end up being the thunder to Pead’s lightning. Looking at St. Louis’s recent draft picks and free agent moves, they seem to be interested in throwing the ball quite a bit. Being the power part of a committee in a passing offense will limit the upside quite a bit.
Some are saying he is this year’s Alfred Morris, but I don’t think there is an Alfred Morris type of situation every year or even every five years. Like I said earlier, I really like Stacy. However, I think that spending a first round pick on him might be a bit too much.
Latavius Murray, RB OAK
Hype Value: Early second round
Realistic Value: Late third or early fourth round
Rationale: Many are touting Murray as a nice sleeper pick in this year’s pick. A sleeper pick – remember what that means? It means you can take him late in a draft and there is a slim chance he might pay off big. The problem with any sleeper is when you take them early in the draft, you are completely destroying the value of being a sleeper. Someone who you take in the early second round is expected to be someone you can plug into your starting lineup within a few years, not a flier or a sleeper.
When it comes to Murray, there are some reasons to like him. He has great size, good power and impressive measurables. Sounds a lot like his teammate Darren McFadden, right? Unfortunately, he’s much more like McFadden than some people want to admit, and I’m not talking about his talent level. Murray has his own lengthy history of injuries. He has missed multiple games just about every season including sitting out the entire 2009 season after having knee surgery. His aggressive, upright running style opens him up to some very big hits and has led to issues with his shoulders, knees, ankles and feet over the years. In fact, Murray only topped 115 carries once in his college career due to the injuries and never topped 200.
To make matters worse, when McFadden goes down, it isn’t even a guarantee Murray will be the next man up. Not only was Murray already injured in mini-camp, but Marcel Reece, Rashad Jennings and Jeremy Stewart are also competing for carries – that’s quite the crowd and it makes me think that when McFadden gets hurt it is going to be a committee approach that might not even include Murray.
He just isn’t what I’m looking for in an early second round pick, which is where some people have him on their boards. He’s a sleeper, not a solid prospect. In fact, he reminds a bit of a slightly bigger and faster James Starks, just to put things into perspective.
Kenny Stills, WR NO
Hype Value: Late second or early third round
Realistic Value: Late third or early fourth round
Rationale: Let me start by saying that anyone catching passes from Drew Brees deserves to be on fantasy radars. After all, he is the only quarterback in history with three seasons over 5,000 yards passing, and two of the three have been the past two along with 46 and 43 touchdowns. With that said, I have a hard time looking at Stills as having any kind of immediate impact for the Saints. Best case scenario, I see him as being the fourth receiver this year. That isn’t too bad, given the number of wide receivers the Saints use and the age of Lance Moore and Marques Colston.
If the situation is good, why do I think he is a bit overhyped?
For starters, I think the NFL pedigree gets a bit too much weight. Sure, it is a nice perk in a player and likely means they will keep out of trouble, but it doesn’t raise their talent level. In fact, what it often means to me is that the player probably maximized his potential or is close to maxing it out when they come into the league because they have been so well coached by their family. Brian Robiske is the perfect example of this. Plus, if you like NFL pedigrees, fellow Saints receiver Nick Toon has a better one than Stills.
I’m also not sure what kind of role Stills will fill in the NFL. He showed great straight-line speed at the combine. However, he really isn’t a burner when he’s on the field. In college he averaged only 12.7 yards per reception which is much more of a slot or possession receiver type of number. In college he ran a fair number of comeback routes and crosses over the middle of the field rather than downfield routes. It will be interesting to see what kind of routes the Saints have him run. His size and speed make him better suited for the deep threat role, but his game fits more as a slot receiver. Either way, I’m waiting until the late third or early fourth before I take a flier on him.
Charles Johnson, WR GB
Hype Value: Late second or early third
Realistic Value: Fourth round
Rationale: As far as I can tell, the majority of the hype around Johnson stems from two different sources. The first is he’ll be catching passes from Aaron Rodgers. The second is he was drafted by Ted Thompson. The first point I can understand, though he needs to make it onto the field to do that. The second one is part myth and part urban legend.
Ted Thompson does a great job of managing the Packers’ roster. However, he gets more credit than he deserves when it comes to finding gems in the late rounds. By my count, the Packers only have four projected starters who were drafted by the Packers after the third round and three of those four are on the offensive line. Thompson does deserve credit for being a good drafter, but it is because he rarely misses on his picks in the first three rounds, not because he finds diamonds in the rough in the sixth and seventh rounds.
Johnson is also stepping into a fairly crowded receiver corps. Even with the departure of Greg Jennings (who was a second round pick by the way), the top three positions are pretty much set in stone (for the record, all three were second or third round picks). While there is a chance that Johnson could play his way into the fourth wide receiver slot, I would guess the Packers will spend a second or third round pick on a wide receiver next year to be the replacement for one of their top three – this would definitely limit Johnson’s long term upside.
He has some talent, I just think it is important to keep expectations in check with him. He’s just a flier at this point in time, not a second round pick.
You’ve heard mine, now who are your most over-hyped rookies?
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
