Back to the Future: Using Historical ADP to Identify Breakout Candidates
In the classic movie Back to the Future, young Marty McFly travels back in time in order to make some adjustments to ensure his future self’s success and survival. Enduring much confusion and surviving many sticky situations, Marty not only saves the day, but the future.
During the long fantasy football off-season, it is important for dynasty owners to look to the past as well, in hopes of securing success in their future, namely the upcoming season. Have your DeLorean ready, because we’re taking a trip through time.
Recently, I have been studying the 2012 dynasty ADP data collected by Bryan Fontaine of ProFootballFocus. As many of you might know, Bryan ran a series of dynasty startup mock drafts a year ago in order to collect dynasty ADP, just as I have done this off-season. Although that data is only a year old, some of what I found was shocking. There are many players assumed to be top options at their position who went undrafted in most of the twenty round mock drafts. This is sure to repeat itself again this season. Players will seemingly come out of nowhere to become reliable fantasy options. Let’s look at the situations some of these players were in a year ago, and use that to identify some possible breakout candidates for 2013 and beyond.
- Note: An ADP of 241 means the player went completely undrafted in all mock drafts.
- All 2013 ADP comes from our June data
Brandon Myers, TE NYG
2012 Dynasty ADP: 241
2013 Dynasty ADP: 160
One year ago, the Oakland Raiders lacked experience at the tight end position and it was unclear who would earn the starting job. Brandon Myers was entering his fourth season with the team, yet had only recorded 32 career receptions. By week one, he had claimed the starting role. Myers had a consistent season and became the favorite target of quarterback Carson Palmer and posted career highs in nearly every category as he totaled 79 receptions for 806 yards and four touchdowns. Myers has since moved on to the New York Giants and his dynasty value has seen a huge spike. A year ago, Myers was undrafted in the dynasty mocks, while according to our June data, he is a fourteenth rounder and a solid fantasy backup tight end.
So, who could be the 2013 version of Myers? My first thought was the lazy example of sticking in Oakland and pegging veteran David Ausberry as the likely candidate. The more I thought about it though, I’m not even sure he will beat out the rookie duo of Nick Kasa and Mychal Rivera to earn the starting gig. Instead, let’s go somewhere most dynasty owners would rather avoid – the New York Jets. Just as the departure of Kevin Boss from Oakland left Myers as the primary option, veteran Dustin Keller took his talents to Miami and left behind a less than experienced group of tight ends. The likely beneficiary of that move is third year man Jeff Cumberland, who totes a career total of 31 catches. Also, due to the Jets lack of quality and healthy wide receivers, expect Cumberland to draw plenty of targets in the passing game. Although Myers was never (and still is not) an elite option at tight end, he was a solid spot starter and was worthy of a roster spot in all dynasty formats. If Cumberland follows the same path, he too could be worth stashing as a cheap backup tight end.
Cecil Shorts, WR JAX
2012 Dynasty ADP: 241
2013 Dynasty ADP: 77
Following his rookie year of 2011, dynasty owners had basically given up on Jaguars wide receiver Cecil Shorts. Shorts had been a mid round pick out of small school Mount Union and had played sparingly in his rookie season, recording only two catches for thirty yards. With these paltry numbers and the addition of high profile receiver Justin Blackmon, Shorts was an afterthought for dynasty owners. He was not rostered in most leagues and went undrafted in the dynasty mocks, giving him an average draft position of 241. With a lack of experience in their receiving corps, he took advantage and earned a starting position. Shorts ended with 55 receptions for nearly 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns, despite missing two games due to concussions.
There are many young wide receivers that fit the mold laid out by Shorts. Each of the following was a mid-round draft pick who were little used in their rookie season of 2012. Also, due to poor receiving options on their team, opportunity to seize playing time is there. The second-year wideouts who I think could be the next Shorts are Juron Criner, Joe Adams, Devon Wylie, Tommy Streeter and Jarius Wright. While Shorts is 6’0” and 205 pounds, each of these wide receivers is either a slot wide receiver or the bigger wideout that makes dynasty owners drool.
The Oakland Raiders drafted Criner in the fifth round a year ago and with injuries and disappointing play from other wide receivers, there were big expectations for Criner. Instead, he was bypassed by fellow rookie Rod Streater for playing time, and ended with sixteen catches for 151 yards. The top two wide receivers for Oakland – Streater and Denarius Moore have both been inconsistent performers, so Criner may have a chance to overtake one for a starting position.
Adams was the fourth round pick of the Carolina Panthers in 2012, yet was primarily used on special teams. He recorded a single catch for seven yards. With Steve Smith getting up there in years and Brandon LaFell a disappointment, there is opportunity for a wide receiver to step up for the Panthers, but will that be Adams? Adams is reportedly in the doghouse in Carolina and the team even brought in veteran return specialist Ted Ginn to challenge him for special teams duties.
In Kansas City, the Chiefs have second year wide receiver Wylie, who recorded six catches and 53 yards in his rookie campaign. Wylie is undersized at only 5’9”, but after top wide receiver Dwayne Bowe, the Chiefs depth chart is wide open. There is also anticipation about how new head coach Andy Reid will make use of his offensive weapons, especially Wylie and Dexter McCluster.
With Percy Harvin hurting at the end of the 2012 season, Wright stepped up and had a solid second half of the season. Now, Harvin is gone, along with some other mediocre receivers that were blocking Wright on the depth chart. Of course, the Vikings did bring in Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson who are expected to fill the starting roles. Wright has a great chance to earn the role as third wide receiver, though it’s hard to see him as anything better than the fourth option in the passing game, behind Jennings, Patterson and tight end Kyle Rudolph.
Finally, the player who I could most likely see having the next Cecil Shorts-like spike in dynasty value is Ravens wide receiver Streeter. The speedy Streeter was a sixth round selection by Baltimore in the 2012 draft, but his season ended before it began, as he was placed on the injured reserve list due to sprained ligaments in his foot and ankle. The injury was not serious and the speculation was it was more of a roster management issue for the Ravens, who felt they could stash Streeter on the injured reserve for a season. Now, he is healthy and most importantly, the team needs him, or one of the wide receivers to step forward and take on the targets once aimed for Anquan Boldin. Boldin was dealt to the San Francisco 49ers following the season and the team is left with question marks at the position. It is safe to assume that Torrey Smith will act as the team’s top wideout, though he is more of a deep play threat rather than a target hog. Also battling Streeter for playing time will be young wide receivers Deonte Thompson and Tandon Doss. It is assumed that veteran Jacoby Jones will earn the starting role, but don’t be surprised if Streeter ends the season with more targets and catches than Jones.
Jordan Cameron, TE CLE
2012 Dynasty ADP: 221
2013 Dynasty ADP: 128
Rob Housler, TE ARI
2012 Dynasty ADP: 221
2013 Dynasty ADP: 149
The cases of Browns tight end Jordan Cameron and Cardinals tight end Rob Housler are interesting ones, and are also quite similar. Both players were drafted in the middle rounds of the 2011 NFL draft and both were quickly pegged as dynasty sleepers, most likely due to their team’s perceived need at the position. After all, the Browns were relying on veteran Ben Watson, while the Cardinals had a collection of mediocre tight ends. Those veteran tight ends though were enough to block each young prospect from gaining much playing time in their first two seasons. The sub-par quarterback play that led each team certainly did not help their dynasty stock either. Following their quiet rookie season in 2011, dynasty owners were still willing to take a chance on the two youngsters, but only in the late rounds of startup drafts. Ironically, both players ended with a 2012 dynasty ADP of 221, placing them in the nineteenth round of a twelve-team draft. While both players saw significantly more action in the sophomore season, neither made the leap to starting tight end, for their fantasy team or their NFL team. Now, both players have been greatly hyped this off-season for a number of reasons. In Cameron’s case, not only did the Browns let Watson walk as a free agent, they also hired tight end friendly Rob Chudzinski as their new head coach and Norv Turner to be their offensive coordinator. Both have a history of coaching top tight ends. As of June, Cameron is now being drafted as a TE1, the twelfth tight end overall. In Arizona, most of the excitement regarding Housler is associated with the upgrade at quarterback. After having possibly the worst quarterback play in the league in 2012, the team traded for veteran Carson Palmer, which can only help Housler, wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald and the rest of the offense. Housler is currently being drafted in the thirteenth round and is a great option for teams waiting to draft their starting tight end.
So, who’s next to receive the hype at the tight end position?
What’s important to remember in this search is that both Cameron and Housler had fairly quiet seasons in fantasy terms. Most of the hype and their gain in dynasty value is due to off-season occurrences. As I look for the player who could follow in their footsteps, I’m not looking for the 2013 breakout tight end, but one who will gain great value and could be found on the waiver wire, just as Housler and Cameron were this time last year. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a solid offense featuring running back Doug Martin and a pair of very good wide receivers in Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams. They use their tight end very little though. In 2012, Dallas Clark totaled 47 catches for 435 yards. With him gone, third year man Luke Stocker is the most likely candidate to start for the Buccaneers. With Jackson and Williams, it is unlikely though that Stocker could eclipse Clark’s 2012 numbers, but he is a player who could quickly gain value as he plays more snaps and sees more targets.
The main player I’d target to potentially see his value explode in a backup tight end to a future Hall of Famer, Antonio Gates. As a rookie in 2012, Ladarius Green registered only four receptions for 56 yards and was used sparingly behind Gates. While we can expect those numbers to spike this upcoming season, he’s still a player that will be playing behind Gates and therefore could be found on waiver wires in shallow dynasty leagues. Though he had another solid season last year, Gates is clearly on the decline and one year from now, the bottom could have fallen out of his value, if it hasn’t already. Heading into 2014 Green could be looking at a starting job surrounded by young playmakers on offense. Now is the time to make a play for Green before he sees the huge jump in value that Cameron and Housler have enjoyed this off-season.
Check back next time for Back to the Future II when I use more historical and situational data to identify breakout candidates.
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