Dynasty Purgatory: Greg Jennings

Eric Hardter

jennings_fotorFollowing the conclusion of the 2012 NFL season, many players were stuck in limbo with regards to their future prospects.  Be it due to injuries, unexpectedly poor performances or contract-related circumstances, expectations for these players may have shifted, or become downright shrouded in uncertainty.  Naturally, whatever transpires in “real life” always trickles over to the fantasy world, so it’s unsurprising that these players’ values may have taken a hit – they were stuck in a sort of “Dynasty Purgatory.”

Fast-forward to the present, and a lot has changed.  With both the 2013 NFL Draft and the bulk of free agency conspiring to act as figurative fantasy bulldozers, the potential we once thought our players possessed might have been dramatically altered.  Organized team activities have begun, and training camps loom large as additional vessels of upheaval.  As such, this is an optimal time to revisit our rosters, and determine if changes need to be made.

In that spirit, this semi-regular premium series returns.  The post-draft edition will focus on players whose futures have been obscured due to the actions of the past few months, and attempt to clarify and valuate their future prospects.  The new iteration of this series continues with Vikings’ wide receiver Greg Jennings.

Pre-Draft Installments

Philip Rivers

Santonio Holmes

Maurice Jones-Drew

Wes Welker

Post Draft Installments

Eric Decker

The Essentials

Age:  29 (will turn 30 in September)

Team:  Minnesota Vikings

Years in the NFL:  Seven

Three-Year Statistical Arc

Year

Games

Targets

TPG

Receptions

Catch %

Yards

YPG

YPC

TD’s

PPR Rank

2010

16

125

7.8

76

60.8

1265

79.1

16.6

12

WR5

2011

13

101

7.8

67

66.6

949

73.0

14.2

9

WR18

2012

8

62

7.8

36

58.1

366

45.8

10.2

4

WR76

In 2010, Jennings silenced the doubters who ridiculed his “mediocre” 2009 campaign (he finished as the PPR WR21) by putting together arguably the best statistical season of his career.  These efforts saw the then-fifth year receiver finish the season as the overall PPR WR5, rewarding owners who kept the faith.  2011 saw a similar level of efficiency, with a decrease in yards per catch being mitigated by a slight uptick in receptions per game and catch percentage.  Unfortunately, by virtue of missing three games with a knee injury, he was unable to replicate his 2010 finish.  However, extrapolating the averages over the course of a full season still would’ve seen Jennings conclude the year as the PPR WR9.

In 2012, the bottom fell out.  Jennings appeared to get old in a hurry, missing half the season due to a groin injury suffered early in the year.  Despite being targeted at literally the exact same rate as the previous two seasons, Jennings nonetheless experienced drop-offs in nearly every statistical category.  This included catch percentage, yards-per-game, yards-per-catch and touchdowns – he was, in a word, unstartable.  Jennings finished the season as the PPR WR76, and even that statistic was buoyed by a meaningless 120-yard, two-touchdown explosion in Week 17.  Sadly, that finale was the only time Jennings would top 50 yards during the 2012 regular season.

ADP Tracking

Month

Overall ADP

Round

WR Rank

January

54

5

22

February

67

6

31

March

71

6

31

April

80

7

34

May

78

7

34

June

80

7

33

*ADP averages based on a 12-team league

Though Jennings put together a reasonable pair of playoff performances (average line – five receptions, 57.5 yards, 0.5 touchdowns and 13.8 PPR points per game), his lackluster 2012 season led to a slide in ADP value.  Rumors of a possible exit from Green Bay led to a full-round drop in value between January and February, as well as a tier shift from a WR2 to a WR3.  Signing with the rival Minnesota Vikings on March 15 led to a fall of yet another round.  All told, between January and June, Jennings’ stock plummeted a full 26 spots, concluding with him being considered a late seventh round pick, and low-end WR3.

Reasons to Abandon Ship

1. Rodgers That!: Suffice it to say, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is more than just a shill for terrible tasting pizza and affordable insurance.  In a “down” 2012 season, Rodgers completed 371 of his 552 passes (67.2%) for 4,295 yards (7.8 YPA) and 39 touchdowns.  Additionally, according to the points per attempt metric (PPA), he was also the league’s most efficient passer.  Conversely, Minnesota signal caller Christian Ponder (who I’ll further touch upon below) was a bit lower in the list, finishing as the QB28 in terms of efficiency.  In other words, the drop-off is more a mountain than a molehill.

In fact, to date, Jennings has had the luxury of receiving passes solely from the duo of Rodgers and future Hall of Famer Brett Favre.  That particular combination of elite quarterback play and pass-heavy play calling would be tough to replicate no matter where Jennings went.  It goes without saying that losing the connection to Rodgers is going to hurt.

2. Baby, We Were Born to Run:  Speaking of future Hall of Famers, you might have heard a thing or two about Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson.  After tearing his ACL at the conclusion of the 2011 season, all he managed to do in 2012 was lead the league in rushing, break the 2,000 yard barrier and set a personal best for yards-per-carry (6.0).  The Vikings knew what side their bread was buttered on, choosing to let “All Day” tote the rock, well, all day. This culminated in a run-heavy scheme, with Ponder dropping back to pass on only 49.8% of the offensive plays.  Of his 483 passing attempts, 290 were directed towards his wide receivers – in other words, in total, Vikings’ receivers were targeted on only 29.9% of the offensive plays.  In short, Jennings’ usage in Minnesota’s offense is definitively capped.

3. Growing Pains:  As Jennings has grown older, he’s spent more and more time in the training room.  Over the past two seasons he’s missed 11 total games and been hobbled in multiple others.  For a soon-to-be 30-year old player, it’s fair to wonder if this this has now become a developing trend.  Considering pass catchers generally begin to experience a decline in their early thirties, every minute on the field matters.

Reasons to Keep The Faith

1. Ponder This:  As I alluded to above, Christian Ponder hasn’t exactly set the world ablaze since his insertion into the starting lineup during his 2011 rookie season.  Though he sports a plus ratio of touchdowns to interceptions, his career yards-per-attempt sits at a pathetic 6.2, and he has yet to even break the 3,000-yard passing mark in a single season!  Minnesota was undoubtedly expecting more from the former first rounder, and Ponder’s 2013 season could very well serve as the breaking point in his Vikings career.

With that said, there’s one thing Ponder does extremely well, and that’s radar-lock onto his top target.  In 2012, Minnesota’s top option in the passing game, Percy Harvin, received a healthy 9.4 targets per game, which calculate out to 150 targets a year.  Though his season was cut short to a mere nine games, Harvin still managed 62 receptions for 677 yards and three touchdowns.

Despite playing for barely half a season, Harvin still finished 2012 as the PPR WR39.  Moreover, when throwing to Harvin, Ponder was much more efficient than his average – his PPA of 0.54 when targeted Harvin was 20% better than his 2012 value of 0.45 PPA.  Jennings likely won’t match Harvin’s numbers, but as the Vikings’ top receiving threat, he’ll certainly get a chance to.

2. We Finally Got a Piece of the Pie:  While I’ve just spoken to Jennings’ likelihood of being the most-targeted player on the Vikings, that undoubtedly wouldn’t have been the case in Green Bay.  In their extremely deep receiving corps, the Packers boast the likes of Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, James Jones and Jermichael Finley, all of whom are healthy and ready to go.  Due to this preponderance of pass catchers, it’s unlikely (barring injuries) any single player will reap deviational benefits above the mean.  To that last point, five Packers received 60 or more targets in 2012, and in 2011, at least five players had 55 targets.  Green Bay boasts a prolific offense, but they constantly spread the wealth around.

3. Baby We Were Born to Run (Some More):  As noted earlier, Green Bay’s offensive philosophy is predicated upon move the ball through the air.  In 2012, they passed on 56.3% of their offensive plays, thereby finishing 16th in the league in rushing attempts, and only 20th in rushing yards.  However, GM Ted Thompson isn’t known to waste rookie picks, and chose to select two running backs in the draft’s first four rounds – second rounder Eddie Lacy and fourth rounder Johnathan Franklin.  Though it’s doubtful the Packers will ever approach anything close to a “ground and pound” mentality, any potential shift toward the run game would’ve been another limiting agent, theoretically capping Jennings’ upside even further.  Put another way, it’s yet another reason why leaving the land of the cheese may have been the right move.

Trade Value

Below is a series of trades that has been relayed to me through Twitter, with date of transaction and league specifics noted:

Date

Give

Receive

League Type

February

Greg Jennings

2014 1st Round Pick

PPR

Early June

Greg Jennings

Shane Vereen

Non-PPR

Late June

Greg Jennings + Philip Rivers

Ryan Tannehill + Joe Morgan + 2014 2nd Round Pick

PPR

Once again, we can see the fluctuation in Jennings’ value.  In February, when his future destination was still up in the air, he was worth a first round pick in the loaded 2014 draft class.  For an older receiver coming off a down year, that’s a fairly robust return upon investment.

In early June, he was traded straight up for Shane Vereen in a non-PPR league.  Vereen has received a substantial amount of hype this offseason, but his biggest strength (pass-catching) is mitigated in a standard setting.  Vereen will also have a tough time siphoning away goal line carries from Stevan Ridley, adding yet another hit to his value, and subsequently to the perceived value of Jennings.

Finally, in the past week, Jennings functioned as a mere “piece” of a larger deal.  The best asset given up by the other team is Ryan Tannehill, a QB2 in most every league, and the secondary pieces are basically fliers.  For Jennings, this has represented the low-point of his trade value.

Conclusion and Recommendation

As I believe I’ve now proven, Greg Jennings’ value is definitively in the tank.  A combination of a new location, persistent injuries and dwindling statistics has owners bailing fast, and salvaging whatever they can for the former Packers star.  However, in the stock market that is dynasty football, is selling low on Jennings the prudent move?

I think Jennings owners should continue to ride out the storm and hang onto the former stud.  It’s entirely possible he performs poorly with Christian Ponder under center, but even if that’s the case, can his value dip any lower?  Moreover, there have been enough promising signs regarding Ponder’s relationship with previous top receiving threats to hold out a little bit of hope.

Similarly, owners with a predilection towards a gambler’s mentality should buy low on Jennings, in the hopes that he performs well enough to gain an appreciable amount of value.  However, if/when he’s able to do just that, I’d sell fast.  There are too many question marks to feel comfortable counting on Jennings as a contributing member of your dynasty roster.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

eric hardter