Shock and Awe

When preparing for your initial draft in a dynasty league, it is important to establish a plan of attack before heading into the draft.  What type of team do you want to draft?  Determine if you are going to build a team to win now, a team to win in the future, a balanced team with a combination of proven veterans and rookie prospects or something else.  Of course, we will take factors like scoring rules, draft position and PPR/Non-PPR into consideration when developing our plan of attack.  Most of us have some kind of idea or approach in mind before heading into draft night.  In most cases, you will know most of the owners in your league and have an understanding of which players they value and their approach to drafting in fantasy football.  Like most owners, they will likely follow common drafting trends like ADP Value Based Drafting.  Going into to draft night, you should have a reasonable idea of how the draft will go down.  Like most owners, I use Value Based Drafting based on ADP in most of my drafts.  I may differ in my views on which positions I value over others, but to each his/her own.

There is another method to use that’s both high risk and high reward – I call it “Shock and Awe.”

The Shock

If you decide to use this draft strategy, you will be providing “The Shock” in your draft.  Be prepared for the draft message board to light up with comments about your selections.  The comments are being made because the other owners are shocked by your moves.  These selections break traditional draft strategy conventions.  Some owners will make fun of your selections, others will start questioning what you are doing and why.  Save it for after the draft.  There will be a lot of draft conversation in the days that follow.  The moves you make will force some owners to change their strategies and may force them to reach for players in the draft.  Other owners will just think you are on tilt.  Keep in mind, the first one through the wall will get bloodied.

The Awe

This is a high risk/high reward, nerve-racking draft strategy.  Your team has the potential to be either awesome or awful…only time will tell.  Your ability as a manager and the transactions you make will decide your team’s fate.  Your negotiating skills, research, patience and your willingness to make bold moves will be put to the test and will ultimately make the difference.

The Evolution of Shock & Awe (The History behind the Madness)

I have used this dynasty draft strategy on a couple of occasions.  The first time was in 2011 in a 12-team dynasty start-up.  This was not a pre-thought strategy heading into the draft; it just evolved over the course of it.  I was following ADP and found myself in the early to middle rounds of the draft not terribly excited about some of the players on my list when it came time for me to draft.  I was monitoring other team rosters and realized most of the owners hadn’t selected a quarterback.  I took Aaron Rodgers in the first round and went ahead and pulled the trigger on another quarterback close to that player’s current ADP (it was not a reach).  As the draft moved along, I drafted more quarterbacks close to their ADP and by the end of the night I had drafted a total of six on my roster.  Yes, I knew that this was a one quarterback start league, but I cornered the market at the quarterback position.  I was being laughed at on the draft message board, but offers were flying in the next day.  It needs to be stated that my running back situation was in bad shape.  C.J. Spiller was the best I had on my roster (remember this was 2011, not 2013). Through careful negotiations and great transactions, I built a dynasty juggernaut that won the championship in 2012.

Here is the roster I assembled post-trades:

QB’s: Rodgers, Colin Kaepernick, Sam Bradford, Nick Foles

RB’s: Spiller, Trent Richardson, DeMarco Murray, Daryl Richardson

WR’s: A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Randall Cobb, T.Y. Hilton, Ryan Broyles, Emmanuel Sanders

TE’s: Jermaine Gresham, Kyle Rudolph

Shock & Awe (The Premise)

The premise behind the strategy is to add value to your dynasty team now in order to build for the future.  Basically it is a Draft-to-Trade strategy in which you corner the market at a particular position (usually quarterback) and trade for players you like at other positions and/or future draft picks.  By committing to this strategy, your focus needs to be on building a team that will be successful 2-3 years down the road.  You might leave the initial draft with your team being voted the worst in the league because of a gaping hole or lack of depth at a particular position, but that is fine because your focus is on the future and the team you have only begun to build.  Rome was not built in a day, and neither will your dynasty team.

The Nuts and Bolts

I recommend going into any dynasty draft with a Value Based ADP approach in mind and unleash “Shock and Awe” only if the opportunity presents itself.  Here is how it works…

1.)    The Franchise Quarterback

I believe in drafting a franchise quarterback early.  Usually in the first or second round (depending on draft position), I suggest targeting a young elite quarterback to anchor your team for the future.  I would select a quarterback who has the potential to be a top five quarterback for multiple years in the future (Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, etc.).  The longevity of the position justifies the early selection and allows you to focus on other positions in the future.  If you are picking early in round one, you still need to go ahead and select one of the young stud running backs (Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, etc.) or wide receivers (A.J. Green, Calvin Johnson, etc.).  I would highly recommend locking down a top quarterback with your next pick.  In a dynasty league, hoping on being able to select an elite quarterback in the rookie draft each year can be an excruciating process that could take years to accomplish.

2.)    No Bust in the Early Rounds

In the first four rounds, draft elite players with little risk of being busts, regardless of position.  Many of the running backs with ADP’s in the late second/early third rounds have some concerns.  These concerns could be based on age of the player, history of injury, erratic play, or difficult situations.  Do you take a chance on Alfred Morris and the Shanahanigans, Matt Forte’s age and injury history, or Chris Johnson’s erratic play?  I am suggesting you take the best player with the least amount of risk.  Grab your franchise quarterback or a second elite quarterback if you have already selected one.  Grab a young proven wide receiver with less risk, giving you another player at a position with longevity.  Add talent to your team now that will likely provide value in the future.  Your goal is to draft four elite players in the first four rounds that provide little risk of becoming a bust – picks you are hoping you will not regret halfway through the first season.  Do not draft a player you are uncomfortable with because the ADP indicates you should.

3.)    Always Pick Young Talent over Old Talent

As you move through the rest of the draft, select young talent with upside over older proven veterans.  Keep in mind this is not a win now approach, so there is no point selecting an older veteran player.  Look at the ADP’s and select a younger player closest to the veteran’s ADP.  For example, I would select a player like Josh Gordon over Wes Welker, despite the fact that Welker is six positions higher on ADP chart.  Also, don’t be afraid to fire at rookies you really like at this point in the draft.

4.)    Corner the Market (aka Hoarding)

When it comes time for you to make a pick and you’re not excited about the players available at the current ADP, draft another quarterback.  Some of the owners are going to wait until late in the draft to pick their first one.  Selecting one more can provide you with more value going forward than selecting a back-up running back.  Despite how bad my running back situation may look in the middle of the draft, I would select young quarterbacks with worse ADP’s like Ryan Tannehill (124), Joe Flacco (139), and Sam Bradford (168) than running backs with better ADP’s like DuJuan Harris (125) or Jacquizz Rodgers (118).  You just added more solid depth at quarterback, making it easier for you to trade one of the 2-3 elite quarterbacks you have already selected on your roster.  This is the point in the draft when you are grabbing as many starting quarterbacks as possible.  I don’t see the value of drafting running backs and wide receivers with little prospect when you can be adding value to your roster by grabbing up starting quarterbacks.  You are drying up the well, leaving other owner’s with few outs at the quarterback position and increasing the value of the quarterbacks you are going to trade.  Also, owners tend to want one of the elite quarterbacks and will pay to acquire one of them.

5.)    The Quarterback Nursery

In the later rounds of the draft, pick up quarterbacks who have the potential to develop over time.  Again, add depth so you can trade the other quarterbacks.  For example, target Kirk Cousins and Tyler Wilson as great late round pick-ups.  Both are likely to get a shot as a starting quarterback in the near future and could be a big hit for you down the road.

6.)    The Art of the Deal

If you decided to implement the “Shock and Awe” strategy in your initial draft, your work has just begun.  Now comes the part where you transform your team into something awesome or awful.  You have to make your trades count and there is no room for error.  Spend the time to carefully analyze all offers in order to maximize your deals.  Do not fall into a situation where you are trading just to be trading.  You may have a hole at a position like running back you are anxious to address, but you need to be patient.  Wait to see which players become impact players instead of trading for a player with potential. Make sure you target the players you want and aggressively pursue them.  In addition, you might feel the urge to start acquiring future draft picks to start building your team.  I recommend you wait until later in the season before trading for draft picks.  If you trade a quarterback for picks before the season, you may make the team you are trading with powerful enough to finish in the top of the league, meaning you end up with draft picks with less value.  Plus, you need time to analyze the college prospects possibly entering the NFL draft.  This is a dynasty league, so you can be patient and wait for the big deal.

7.)    Rookie Drafts

In future rookie drafts, select the best player available over need.  If you have six quarterbacks on your roster and desperately need a running back, I would still draft a quarterback if you feel they are the better talent.  Don’t reach for a player just to fill a need.  Again, keep cornering the market and keep adding value to your roster.

Conclusion

“Shock and Awe” is an alternative dynasty draft strategy that can be used with success.  It will take a few years to build your team, but it could give you more control and ability to acquire the players you desire in the long run.  Keep adding value to your roster instead of taking risks and missing on back-up players at other positions who have little chance of making a future impact.  Be patient and careful when making your trades and potentially enjoy watching your team transform into a potential dynasty monster.

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