Lost Amongst The Crowd: Jermaine Gresham

Karl Safchick

gresham2Playing dynasty fantasy football for many years will undoubtedly produce countless “man-crushes” for most players. This is nothing new. Many owners play in multiple leagues and will find themselves drafting a player (or multiple players) on most or all their teams – this can be the result of an athlete playing for an owner’s hometown team, playing for an owner’s alma mater, or simply because they have an electrifying highlight reel.

The late Mitch Hedberg once said, “I don’t have a girlfriend, I just know a girl who would get really mad if she heard me say that.” Well, I don’t have a “man-crush” on Jermaine Gresham, but my many fantasy rosters would disagree. I don’t remember exactly when my affection for Gresham started. It wasn’t during the summer of 2011 when I traded away Kellen Winslow Jr., then subsequently traded for Gresham for a similar draft pick. That move netted me great value since Winslow Jr. has struggled to stay in the league since then. My admiration for Gresham didn’t start in 2012 when he started all but his bye-week game for my championship team in the regular season and fantasy playoffs. It wasn’t even when his perceived value dropped harder than an anvil on Wile E. Coyote after the Cincinnati Bengals used their 2013 first round draft pick on Tyler Eifert. Instead, my propensity for him is a combination of all of those events.

Let’s take a journey into the Cincinnati Bengals’ war room on the night of April 25, 2013. Imagine you are Marvin Lewis, Jay Gruden, the Brown family, or one of the many scouts sitting in that room on that night. Imagine you have Pro Bowler A.J. Green on your roster, but the only pass catcher to compliment him is Gresham. You want to help your mediocre, third-year signal caller in Andy Dalton. You want to surround him with as much of a talented receiving arsenal as you can to help your passing game. You take a long look at your big board. You and your aforementioned colleagues have Eifert listed as a top ten prospect and the wide receivers available are underwhelming. You’re picking at #21 overall, so at this point, Eifert is obviously a steal in your mind. You’ve seen two of the most successful franchises (the San Francisco 49ers and the New England Patriots) dominate the NFL with a combined 49-14-1 record over the past two regular seasons. Both of these teams implement a two tight end set as their base offense and are very advantageous in doing so. Now, imagine you phone into the jersey makers backstage to request a black and orange uniform with Eifert’s name across the back, since thats the only logical thing left to do.

None of these actions are a discourtesy towards Gresham. Shortly after the draft on April 26th, Jay Gruden said “I don’t think Jermaine has a lot to worry about. Eifert’s going to come in here and add another element with the two tight end package or three tight end package.” I believe Gresham will still get his targets, possibly with less defensive attention now. Gresham is a physical specimen. He is a 6’5” ,260 lb 24-year old tight end who runs a 4.66 second 40 yard dash. The only productive player at his position that exceeds his size is Jimmy Graham. Since Gresham joined the league in 2010, there have been only four tight ends to accumulate more targets, and only six to gain more receptions in the same time span (one of whom is 37 year old Tony Gonzalez who will almost certainly be retiring after the 2013 season, diminishing his dynasty value). Perception is not reality when it comes to Gresham. Many naysayers want you to believe he cannot catch. One dynasty owner just the other day told me he led the league in drops in 2012 – this was simply not true. There were seven tight ends with an equal or higher amount of drops last year, six of whom had a higher drop percentage. In 2011, there were 15 tight ends with an equal or higher amount of drops. Of those 15, 11 had a higher drop percentage. Another guy in one of my leagues said Gresham couldn’t hold on to the ball against the Texans in the 2012 playoffs. Gresham was targeted six times on that day, five of which were caught for 46 yards and the other target being a batted ball, for zero dropped balls. I’m sorry, these are not the droids you are looking for. I love comparing players to other players. I’m going to compare Gresham to someone named “Player X.” I’ll give you a clue about “Player X” – this player is not Graham, Rob GronkowskiAaron Hernandez, or Jason Witten. The point of this article is not to convince you that Gresham is a top three player. All of those players can be considered for a top three spot on the tight end draft board, so “Player X” is not any of them.

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According to these stats, Gresham is comparatively equal in a few categories, and superior in the others. In theory, he could give you three more years of production than “Player X,” since he is three years younger. Gresham is slightly bigger and relatively just as fast. Gresham gets targeted 16 times more, which is an extra target per game. In ppr leagues, Gresham would get you almost an extra point per game than “Player X,” due to only his catches. One of Gresham’s downfalls has been his touchdown production, as he’s averaged only five touchdowns per season, but “Player X” only averages four per season. By now we can all agree you’d rather have Gresham on your team than “Player X,” and many of you have probably looked up these stats, or scrolled to the bottom of the page to see who I’m comparing Gresham with.

“Player X” represents all eight tight ends (not named Graham, Gronkowski, Hernandez, or Witten) with a higher accumulative rank than Gresham, ranked by my fellow DLF writers. I personally have Gresham ranked just outside of my top-5 tight ends. In many drafts he’s going around the TE18 which I believe is crazy value. How do you feel?

Editors note: Since the original writing of this article, Gresham’s rank has fallen even more in the minds of my fellow writers. If I were to add players such as Robert Housler into “Player X” the numbers would be even more astounding.)

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