June Rookie Mock Draft: Round Three Analysis

Jacob Feldman

joseph_randleWe are now well over one month removed from the NFL Draft and most teams have completed or are about to complete their summer OTA program. With nothing between now and August for most teams, this seems like a perfect time to do another rookie mock draft with some of our staff.

For those of you who have already had your own rookie draft, feel free to provide your own comments down below. For those of you with summer drafts, hopefully this will help give you a little bit of added perspective. Just keep in mind every league and every owner is different. Some of them have very strong tendencies so make sure that you go back and analyze your previous drafts to see what you can learn and use it to your advantage.

We have kept the same format through all of the drafts in that we are running – a standard scoring PPR league with normal lineup requirements. No trades were allowed in the draft. Our writers were asked to provide some comments about what they like in that player and why they selected them over the other options. I’ll then provide some of my own opinions on that pick in order to provide two points of view on each selection. The draft order was randomly drawn.

This time around we welcome some of our newest writers into the mock draft in order to give some different perspectives on things. I’m not sure if it is due to those new perspectives, the way that the draft order ended up, media hype or something else but there were definitely some major changes this time around.

If you want to take a look at previous mock drafts that we have done to get a sense of the risers and fallers, here you go:

Pre-combine: Round 1 and Round 2

Post-combine: Round 1, Round 2 and Round 3

Pre-draft: Round 1, Round 2, and Round 3

Post draft: Round 1, Round 2 and Round 3

June Mock: Round 1, Round 2

I’ve included the pick the player was taken in our staff mock drafts both before the NFL Draft as well as the one that was conducted just afterwards – that way the pre-draft ranking will give you an idea of what we felt without any situations playing a part of it, the post draft will give you our immediate feelings after we know the situation and the current will hopefully give you an idea of how things have changed.

So far the first two rounds definitely shook things up a little bit and provided their fair share of interesting picks. The third round featured a ton of players who make their first time appearances in our mock drafts. Some of this is a result of our writers just wanted to get some of their favorite sleepers a bit of face time, which I completely understand. It is also a bit of the hype train rolling on a few of the players and causing us to be swept up in their favor while overlooking some superior talents. Let’s take a look and let you decide what you think.

3.01 – Jordan Reed, TE WAS

(Pre-Draft 3.11, Post Draft 3.09)

Chad’s thoughts: He’s my favorite patience pick in this draft. I think this kid will already be one of the more athletic tight ends in the league, albeit the most raw as well. If he develops his game, Reed could be a top ten tight end for years to come.

My thoughts: I really like Reed as well. I like him better in the middle or late third round than the early third, but I understand why Chad grabbed him given our format. I think Reed will probably be the starting tight end for the Redskins in the 2014 season and that by 2015 we will be talking about someone that should be a low end TE1 in fantasy leagues. It is going to take some time for him, so like Chad said, you need to be patient. He’s a great candidate for a practice squad slot.

3.02 – Kenny Stills, WR NO

(Pre-Draft Undrafted, Post Draft Undrafted)

Brian’s thoughts: I have been getting Stills in every rookie mock and feel like I’m stealing. Stills comes from a pedigree of NFL talent and he could be a potential PPR stud in New Orleans with Drew Brees throwing him the ball.

My thoughts: Brian Bulmer just put together a very nice article on what he likes about Kenny Stills. When I look at Stills, I see someone with decent, but not great talent. The NFL pedigree only goes so far as we saw with Brian Robiskie in recent years. I think the most likely outcome for Stills is to be fourth on the depth chart this year behind the two starters and Joseph Morgan. Once Lance Moore or Marques Colston move on he could move up, though.

3.03 – Charles Johnson, WR GB

(Pre-Draft Undrafted, Post Draft 3.12)

Doug’s thoughts: Want to draft Cordarrelle Patterson, but get him a lot cheaper? Take a gamble on Johnson, whose measurables were very similar. It doesn’t matter what round you get drafted in by the Packers, you’ve got a shot. Isn’t that what we’re doing in the third round anyways? Taking shots? I’ll take a stab that James Jones moves on from Green Bay in free agency soon and Johnson becomes the WR3 in one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. This guy has the kind of talent that could provide huge upside if he hits.

My thoughts: It didn’t surprise me at all that Doug went with Johnson in the third round. He is another fast riser in fantasy circles and those seem to be Doug’s targets. I feel like there are several other players still on the board I would have taken before him at this point in time. I like him much better in the late third or fourth rounds of rookie drafts. Ultimately, I share most of Steve Wyremski’s views which can be found here.

3.04 – Joseph Randle, RB DAL

(Pre-Draft 3.03, Post Draft 3.06)

Ghost’s thoughts: In all likelihood, DeMarco Murray will get hurt this year and continue to get hurt year after year. Enter Randle who has the skills to make an impression in year one and an impact for years to come until, inevitably, the position is his.

My thoughts: I agree with the Ghost that Murray will most likely become injured this season, which could open the door for Randle to get a chance. However, I think when Randle gets his chance ,it is fairly likely he will also get injured and open the door for someone else. Randle is a less talented version of Murray in a lot of ways, including the injury issues. With that said, he isn’t a bad pick in the middle of the third round. I’m just not a fan.

3.05 – Stedman Bailey, WR STL

(Pre-Draft 3.02, Post Draft 2.09)

Scott’s thoughts: I’m glad to take Bailey at 3.05. I love his talent. He put up 114 receptions, 1,600+ yards and 25 touchdowns in his last year at West Virginia. His junior year was impressive as well. I think Bailey’s talent will overtake Brian Quick and possibly even Tavon Austin or Chris Givens, as crazy as that sounds. Bailey at 3.05 is great value.

My thoughts: I definitely agree Bailey at 3.05 is great value and I like him better than any of the other players already taken in this third round, especially the other wide receivers. He isn’t getting the press and hype of some others, but I do like him long term to be the third receiver for the Rams behind Austin and Givens. He has lots of talent and great value at this spot.

3.06 – Denard Robinson, RB JAX

(Pre-Draft Undrafted, Post Draft Undrafted)

Eric O’s thoughts: On a team looking for explosiveness, Robinson has a chance to get playing time as a gimmick player as a rookie while learning to transition into a full-time running back. I’m not expecting a whole lot year one barring injuries to Maurice Jones-Drew.

My thoughts: Robinson is a very interesting player to watch. Given the current depth chart, there aren’t a whole lot of other options that might play in front of him outside of the obvious one. With that said, I have a hard time believing the Jaguars are going to go into the season without a veteran backup behind Jones-Drew. Someone like Beanie Wells could bridge the gap to a high profile signing next year or a high draft pick.

3.07 – Aaron Mellette, WR BAL

(Pre-Draft Undrafted, Post Draft Undrafted)

Derek’s thoughts: In a normal four round draft, I’d try to wait until the fourth round to grab Mellette closer to his ADP. Since we’re only going with three rounds in this mock, I’m going to grab him as the top player on my board. He absolutely dominated the FCS, and while many will point to the lower level of competition, I’ll point to the fact he did exactly what someone of superior talent should do against the opponents he played. Over his last two seasons in college, he had more games over 175 yards (seven) than he had under 100 (only five). I fully believe by the end of this season he’ll be at least the third receiver on the Ravens and also think he’ll be a viable starter by next season.

My thoughts: Mellette has talent. He’s also in a pretty good situation given the Ravens’ lack of depth at the wide receiver position. It isn’t a slam dunk he’s going to vault up the depth chart, though. I question how easily he will adapt to the higher level of competition in the NFL. Many FCS players take some time to adjust and some just never make that jump. As for the depth chart, Torrey Smith is the lead dog with Jacoby Jones penciled in next to him. For Mellette to see a lot of playing time, he’s going to need to outperform Deonte Thompson, Tandon Doss, and Tommy Streeter.

3.08 – Josh Boyce, WR NE

(Pre-Draft Undrafted, Post Draft Undrafted)

Jarrett’s thoughts: There is a dearth of experience at the wide receiver position in New England, and even the deep tight end position has its share of injury issues. Although Aaron Dobson was drafted higher (and is going higher in rookie drafts), I’ve been targeting speedster Boyce (4.38 second 40 time) in the late third and, and even in some cases, the early fourth. Yeah it’s a lottery ticket, but a chance at a guy that has Tom Brady throwing to him is the kind of ticket I want to buy.

My thoughts: Boyce is definitely a long shot, but it is one worth taking. I would have gone for some of the other players that are sliding at this point in time though. With Boyce, I think you’re looking at someone that could be the deep threat opposite from Dobson. Though the question is exactly how many passes will get thrown his way even if he wins the role.

3.09 – Geno Smith, QB NYJ

(Pre-Draft 1.10, Post Draft 2.08)

Eric H’s thoughts: Talk about my lucky day! I have Smith ranked as my top quarterback over EJ Manuel, and strongly considered him with my second round pick. No, the pre-draft process wasn’t kind to him as he experienced a bit of a character assassination by the media. Nonetheless, I believe in his skill set and expect him to win the Jets’ job this year. I think he’ll gain meaningful experience and ultimately settle in as a high end QB2 when John Idzik turns that roster around. The best quarterback analyst out there, Ron Jaworksi, had a first round grade on him and that doesn’t hurt, either.

My thoughts: I’m shocked at how far Smith fell in this draft. He is probably going to go in the late second or early third in the vast majority of rookie drafts, if not higher. I’m not a huge fan of any of the quarterbacks in this year’s draft, but this is a great value pick in the late third round and one I think Eric had to make.

3.10 – Zach Ertz, TE PHI

(Pre-Draft 2.02, Post Draft 2.04)

My thoughts: I remember looking at the draft report when Eric was on the clock with 3.09 and needing to double check the list to make sure I was seeing things right. For both Geno Smith and Zach Ertz to be available in the late third round is shocking given both of them were early second round picks not too long ago. I’ve gone on record numerous times saying I’m not a huge fan of most of the quarterbacks or tight ends this year, but this is taking things a bit too far.

In all likelihood, Brent Celek is going to be cut by the Eagles and James Casey will be used in a hybrid blocking/pass catching/fullback role – that leaves the door wide open for Ertz to be the primary pass catching tight end. While that might not mean a ton in a Chip Kelly offense, I think it is well worth a late third round pick, especially if Kelly’s offense evolves into something that has a bit more of an NFL feel to it.

3.11 – Tyler Wilson, QB OAK

(Pre-Draft Undrafted, Post Draft Undrafted)

Chris’ thoughts: The quarterback position hasn’t received too much attention in this year’s draft and Wilson, after being drafted in the fourth round, has become a forgotten entity. He had high rankings by many pre-draft and I view his situation as a positive. Wilson is competing with Matt Flynn, who is just as unproven, and has the opportunity to be the second Wilson to unseat Flynn as the starter.

My thoughts: Like Chris, I like Wilson. He has the characteristics to be a solid NFL starter for several years to come. From a talent perspective, I think he is far superior to Flynn. The issue for Wilson is there isn’t a ton of pass catching talent on the Raiders and it could be a bit of a bumpy ride if he gets thrown into the starting lineup either because he beats Flynn out or due to an injury.

3.12 – Andre Ellington, RB ARI

(Pre-Draft 2.06, Post Draft 3.08)

Mark’s thoughts: Ellington is a talented but undersized back. The Arizona backfield is cloudy to put it mildly and I expect some type of committee to form. Ellington could end up seeing some work as a change of pace, passing down specialist. In PPR formats, he could find some value.

My thoughts: Personally, I feel Rashard Mendenhall is going to be the guy in Arizona. It is his former coach and he should be completely healthy now. Ellington will need to outplay Ryan Williams to earn the change of pace role behind Mendenhall. That could happen, but I think it might be unlikely unless Williams suffers another injury.

That’s it for our June Rookie only mock draft. We’ll be back as we get closer to August with one final mock draft for those of you that draft your rookies just before the season starts. Good luck to those of you that draft before then!

jacob feldman