June Rookie Mock Draft: Round Two Analysis

Jacob Feldman

usatsi_7298566_155034386_lowresWe are now well over one month removed from the NFL Draft and most teams have completed or are about to complete their summer OTA program. With nothing between now and August for most teams, this seems like a perfect time to do another rookie mock draft with some of our staff.

For those of you who have already had your own rookie draft, feel free to provide your own comments down below. For those of you with summer drafts, hopefully this will help give you a little bit of added perspective. Just keep in mind every league and every owner is different. Some of them have very strong tendencies so make sure that you go back and analyze your previous drafts to see what you can learn and use it to your advantage.

We have kept the same format through all of the drafts in that we are running – a standard scoring PPR league with normal lineup requirements. No trades were allowed in the draft. Our writers were asked to provide some comments about what they like in that player and why they selected them over the other options. I’ll then provide some of my own opinions on that pick in order to provide two points of view on each selection. The draft order was randomly drawn.

This time around we welcome some of our newest writers into the mock draft in order to give some different perspectives on things. I’m not sure if it is due to those new perspectives, the way that the draft order ended up, media hype or something else but there were definitely some major changes this time around.

If you want to take a look at previous mock drafts that we have done to get a sense of the risers and fallers, here you go:

Pre-combine: Round 1 and Round 2

Post-combine: Round 1, Round 2 and Round 3

Pre-draft: Round 1, Round 2, and Round 3

Post draft: Round 1, Round 2 and Round 3

June Mock: Round 1

I’ve included the pick the player was taken in our staff mock drafts both before the NFL Draft as well as the one that was conducted just afterwards – that way the pre-draft ranking will give you an idea of what we felt without any situations playing a part of it, the post draft will give you our immediate feelings after we know the situation and the current will hopefully give you an idea of how things have changed.

After a first round filled with a few surprises, the second round continued to throw a few curveballs as some of the faster risers might have risen too far. Let’s take a look at exactly what happened.

2.01 – Zac Stacy, RB STL

(Pre-Draft 2.11, Post Draft 2.06)

Chad’s thoughts: I still think Isaiah Pead will be ‘The Guy” in St. Louis, but Stacy should carve out a nice role in red zone and short yardage situations. I really liked Stacy heading into the draft and feel he went to one of the better landing spots for running backs. I think this is my third DLF rookie mock and this will be the third time I’ve taken him.

My thoughts: Stacy is about as high character of a player as you can find. He is also very underrated when it comes to his athleticism and the ability to carry the ball. However, he is about as far from fast as you can find, which means he’s going to be limited to a committee role due to that last of explosiveness. I agree with Chad that Pead will be the lead and Stacy will be the complement. The question is how much a complementary back going to be worth? The early second round might be a bit too much, but I like the player.

2.02 – Johnathan Franklin, RB GB

(Pre-Draft 1.07, Post Draft 2.03)

Brian’s thoughts: I like Franklin at this point in the draft. Many think that Lacy will win the job. Don’t forget he had some conditioning and injury concerns heading into the draft. Franklin may be a better fit as a pass catcher in an offense that likes to air it out. Even if Lacy wins the job, Franklin will get plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points.

My thoughts: Long term, I think that the Packers’ backfield will be a near equal split between Lacy and Franklin. Lacy will be the power to Franklin’s finesse. I agree with Brian that I like Franklin at this point in the draft. While the Packers don’t run the ball a ton, they will run enough to put both Franklin and Lacy on the fantasy radar. Given Franklin’s passing down skills, he might be the back to own if you can only pick one. Nice value in the second round.

2.03 – Latavius Murray, RB OAK

(Pre-Draft Undrafted, Post Draft Undrafted)

Doug’s thoughts: Darren McFadden is going to get hurt again and when he does, Murray has enough talent to take the reins and never look back. McFadden is also in a contract year so if he gets hit by the injury bug again, he could be testing the free agent market in 2014. I’m all about talent and I think Murray is the third most talented back in this class. I’d be happy to get him in any format with this pick.

My thoughts: Just like in the first round, Doug and I are on very different pages. Murray is a sleeper I like in the third round. Taking him in the second, especially the early second is a huge mistake in my mind. To say he’s the third most talented back in this class is shocking to me. If he’s really the third most talented back, why was he fifteenth running back drafted and not taken until the sixth round?

When McFadden gets hurt, there isn’t any guarantee Murray (who has his own injury issues) will be the next man up. It is a crowded backfield with Marcel Reece, Rashad Jennings, and Jeremy Stewart who could all pick up carries when McFadden goes down. Predicting Murray is going to take over the full load (when he’s never had more than 200 carries in a season) and keep it for years to come is bold to say the least. Making Murray an early second round selection isn’t even close to a good value in my mind.

2.04 – Travis Kelce, TE KC

(Pre-Draft 3.06, Post Draft 2.07)

Ghost’s thoughts: He has the potential to be the best tight end in this class. With a revamped Kansas City offense and Andy Reid’s system, the sky’s the limit for Kelce. In nearly every league I’m in he has gone before this pick so I feel as if I’m getting a huge deal here.

My thoughts: I think Kelce is very close to being the top tight end in this year’s group if not the top. I still have a few concerns about his character, but the talent is definitely there. The situation is also pretty nice since there aren’t a ton of great pass catching options on the Chiefs and Reid loves to throw the ball. Kelce shouldn’t have much trouble getting on the field early and often during his rookie year and has a higher upside than just about any other tight end in this class.

2.05 – Marcus Lattimore, RB SF

(Pre-Draft 1.11, Post Draft 1.12)

Scott’s thoughts: I’m not crazy about this pick. I’m not sure Lattimore ever returns from his total knee dislocation and ACL tear on the opposite knee. He is a good kid (no Kenny Britt factor for rehab), is talented and landed in a great situation in San Francisco. I don’t think LaMichael James or Kendall Hunter will be an obstacle if Lattimore can return to form in 2014, which is a big if. This pick is a gamble, but worth it if Lattimore hits.

My thoughts: Lattimore is starting to slide a little bit in drafts as it becomes more and more apparent he’s probably going to miss most, if not all of the 2013 season. Like Scott, I don’t think he’ll ever come back to form. I think a lot of his lateral agility and explosiveness is going to be permanently gone. Long term, I expect him to be the power compliment to Hunter’s lead role with James in more of a Darren Sproles type of role. Even if that happens, this is still decent value and probably would have been my pick as well here.

2.06 – Aaron Dobson, WR NE

(Pre-Draft 3.04, Post Draft 2.12)

Eric O’s thoughts: Dobson has an opportunity in New England to climb a depth chart all of the sudden lacking talented pass catchers. Dobson has a little Miles Austin to him when it comes to his size/speed ratio – that kind of skill set combined with Tom Brady is enough for me to roll the dice on him.

My thoughts: I like Dobson and he is starting to climb the charts pretty quickly. This is probably about the upper limit of where I would start to consider him. The opportunity is definitely there for him to establish himself on the outside with the tight ends and Danny Amendola on the inside. He just needs to take advantage of the chance and work hard to gain Brady’s trust. If he does that, he could surprise a lot of people.

2.07 – EJ Manuel, QB BUF

(Pre-Draft 3.01, Post Draft 2.02)

Derek’s thoughts: Most of the other options at this point are players I’m not a fan of or players I think I can get in the next round. The Bills have already put a number of receiving options in place to set Manuel up for success. While fellow rookie Geno Smith probably has a better shot of starting immediately, I think Manuel is the only quarterback with the potential to be a difference maker in the next few years.

My thoughts: I’ll agree with Derek on several of his points. I too think Manuel is the highest upside quarterback in this draft. However, I don’t think he’s going to manage to reach that upside. He’s too incomplete to be a NFL quarterback right now and I’m not sure that the staff in Buffalo will be able to teach him everything that he needs to know. I think the most likely outcome for Manuel is he follows in the footsteps of recently released teammate Tarvaris Jackson. Manuel just isn’t at the same level as the mobile quarterbacks we saw last year.

2.08 – Robert Woods, WR BUF

(Pre-Draft 2.01, Post Draft 1.11)

Jarrett’s thoughts: Easy pick and another great receiver value in the late second. Woods may be the most NFL ready receiver in this draft. He certainly is the best route runner. His upside is pre-microfracture Steve Smith (NYG) and he can play on the outside as a complement to Stevie Johnson or in the slot should one of Da’Rick Rogers, T.J. Graham or Marquise Goodwin develop into a deep threat. He may be the safest pick out of this entire rookie class.

My thoughts: This was quite the drop for Woods from the previous drafts. If you’ve been reading those drafts, you know I’m not a huge fan of Woods. I think he’s very average in just about every way and where Jarrett thinks he’s safe, I think he’s fairly likely to bust. With that said, at this point in the draft, if Woods is still on the board I think you almost need to take him and hope I’m wrong.

2.09 – Terrance Williams, WR DAL

(Pre-Draft 2.12, Post Draft 2.05)

Eric H’s thoughts: Truthfully ,I’m surprised he’s still available. Dez Bryant is a budding superstar, but fellow receiver Miles Austin may never be 100% healthy and tight end Jason Witten isn’t getting any younger. Williams might not get a whole lot done during his rookie season, but give Jerry Jones’ apparent willingness to hand playing time to rookies, appearing in three-wide sets isn’t out of the realm of possibility. I view him as Austin’s replacement as soon as 2014.

My thoughts: I’m not too worried about Witten in Dallas, but like Eric I think Austin’s time as a Cowboy is very quickly coming to an end. Williams is one of the players in the running to step up and take over the role opposite Bryant, which means lots of single coverage. Williams is more than talented to excel in that environment and we’ve all seen the Cowboys can produce multiple receivers who hold a lot of value in fantasy. Williams is a great pick in the middle of the second round and even better in the late second round.

2.10 – Quinton Patton, WR SF

(Pre-Draft 2.05, Post Draft 3.02)

My thoughts: I was hoping Williams was going to make it all the way down to this pick, but it just didn’t happen. With him gone, it came down to a choice between Patton or Da’Rick Rogers. The recent injury to Michael Crabtree and some of the reports that are coming out of Buffalo pushed me towards Patton by a decent margin.

Prior to the draft, Patton was in the discussion as a top fifteen rookie pick. He has a lot of talent and landing in San Francisco is probably a good thing for him. Crabtree is obviously the top guy when healthy. Behind Crabtree is a mix of players who are either in the twilight of their career or have so underperformed thus far – that leaves the door wide open for Patton to carve out a nice role moving forward and be the long term compliment to Crabtree. While that might mean he’s only going to post WR3 numbers, that’s pretty good for a late second round pick.

2.11 – Da’Rick Rogers, WR BUF

(Pre-Draft 2.03, Post Draft 3.01)

Chris’ thoughts: Before playing a down in the NFL, Rogers already has a distinct reputation of being a high upside player with his share of off-field concerns. There’s no denying the risk, but at this point in the draft there is a relatively high level of risk in every pick, so I might as well target the player with a heavy upside and hope he can get his act together.

My thoughts: Rogers has been one of my favorite swing for the fences picks for quite a while now. The talent is definitely there and in the Bills offense he could turn into the top target if he gets his act together. The problem is that’s a pretty big “if.” There are already several reports coming out of Buffalo of some questionable behavior such as taunting teammates when he scored. The good news is he’s beating NFL cornerbacks for touchdowns. The bad news is if he’s taunting teammates during his first round of OTAs he has a long ways to go when it comes to maturity.

2.12 – Mike Gillislee, RB MIA

(Pre-Draft Undrafted, Post Draft 3.07)

Mark’s thoughts: Rogers and Dobson were my targets here, but neither quite made it to me. Gillislee has been getting positive reviews in Miami and despite all of the Lamar Miller hype flying around right now, we don’t really know what exactly will happen in the Miami backfield.

My thoughts: I completely agree with Mark. Gillislee has a nice (though not exceptional) skill set. He shouldn’t have a hard time passing up Daniel Thomas to be the number two man in Miami. As for the number one man, I’m not sold on Lamar Miller being a three down workhorse back. It just might happen that Miller ends up being better suited to a part time role which could give Gillislee a good amount of playing time. There might have been a few other players I would have considered here, but Gillislee is a decent choice.

Stay tuned for the third round of picks in the next few days!

jacob feldman