June Rookie Mock Draft: Round One Analysis
We are now well over one month removed from the NFL Draft and most teams have completed or are about to complete their summer OTA program. With nothing between now and August for most teams, this seems like a perfect time to do another rookie mock draft with some of our staff.
For those of you who have already had your own rookie draft, feel free to provide your own comments down below. For those of you with summer drafts, hopefully this will help give you a little bit of added perspective. Just keep in mind every league and every owner is different. Some of them have very strong tendencies, so make sure you go back and analyze your previous drafts to see what you can learn and use it to your advantage.
We have kept the same format through all the drafts – we are running a standard scoring PPR league with normal lineup requirements. No trades were allowed in the draft. Our writers were asked to provide some comments about what they like in that player and why they selected them over the other options. I’ll then provide some of my own opinions on that pick in order to provide two points of view on each selection. The draft order was randomly drawn.
This time around, we welcomed some of our newest writers into the mock draft in order to give some different perspectives on things. I’m not sure if it is due to those new perspectives, the way that the draft order ended up, media hype or something else, but there were definitely some major changes this time around.
If you want to take a look at previous mock drafts that we have done to get a sense of the risers and fallers, here you go:
Pre-combine: Round 1 and Round 2
Post-combine: Round 1, Round 2 and Round 3
Pre-draft: Round 1, Round 2, and Round 3
Post draft: Round 1, Round 2 and Round 3
I’ve included the pick that the player was taken in our staff mock drafts both before the NFL draft as well as the one that was conducted just afterwards. That way the pre-draft ranking will give you an idea of what we felt without any situations playing a part of it, the post draft will give you our immediate feelings after we know the situation, and the current will hopefully give you an idea of how things have changed.
1.01 – DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU
(Pre-Draft 1.06, Post Draft 1.04)
Chad’s thoughts: He’s the best player on my rookie boards. He’s not going to be a popular pick at this spot and normally I would try and trade down some. When you like (or in this case, love) a player and their situation, you snag him when you can. Nothing is certain in this year’s draft class, but I think with his talent and landing spot, I could have a top 10 WR for the next 6-8 years.
My thoughts: To me this is a very safe pick, but I’m not sure that is a good thing at 1.01. If you’re a team that can’t afford to miss on an early first round selection, Hopkins might be your guy. I do strongly disagree with Chad’s view on the upside ,though. I view Hopkins as someone who can be a very good NFL WR2 but not the lead receiver on his team. It is very rare the second receiver on an NFL team posts top 20 numbers, let alone top ten numbers for multiple years. I think anyone taking Hopkins is most likely locking themselves in to WR2/WR3 fantasy numbers for the foreseeable future. Every team needs those players, but I’m not sure that’s what I look for at 1.01. In my mind, he has a high floor, but a lower ceiling than a lot of the other rookies out there.
1.02 – Giovani Bernard, RB CIN
(Pre-Draft 1.03, Post Draft 1.02)
Brian’s thoughts: I still like Giovani as the top running back. He will get his fair share of touches this season in the Bengals offense. He may not be the majority running back this season, but I see him as the primary back in 2014. In the Bengals offense he should get plenty of opportunities to have solid fantasy production for years to come.
My thoughts: Bernard isn’t my top running back, but that is largely because I view him as a career committee player. I don’t think he has the skill set or the body to shoulder much more than 60% or 70% of the workload at the most. With that said, he should get a fair amount of playing time this year and will gain value in PPR leagues. He might approach RB2 value within a year, but I’m not sure I ever see him breaking into the top 15 running backs. I just don’t think he is an elite talent, but a good talent in a great situation equals at least some fantasy success.
1.03 – Christine Michael, RB SEA
(Pre-Draft 1.12, Post Draft 2.10)
Doug’s thoughts: I’ll probably catch some major heat for this one, but Michael is without a doubt the most talented player in this draft class. Period. If I’m sitting at pick 1.03 in a rookie draft, chances are my team isn’t very good, so I can afford to wait a year or two before he takes over the starting gig. He’s the only RB in this class in my opinion that offers top five upside at the position. Once Hopkins is off the board, I’m immediately thinking Michael, so this was a no brainer to me, but I’m sure many will disagree. This draft isn’t like 2012 where you can draft players and immediately insert them into your starting roster. Taking anyone else here for me would mean I think I’m getting immediate RB2 or WR3 starters. I just don’t think that’s the case. Give me the upside and I’ll deal with the consequences if it doesn’t work out.
My thoughts: Wow. I’m not even entirely sure where to go with this. Prior to the draft, Michael wasn’t even in the discussion of top three running backs due to his injury history, fumbling issues, and of course, his character concerns. There’s an awful lot of baggage, too much for me to think of him as a top three pick in rookie drafts, especially when you consider he might even be available in many leagues in the early second round. He was a late second round pick in our post draft mock and in a recent forum poll the majority of respondents put him in the late first or early second round. Doug and I clearly disagree on this one. He could be right, but I feel that the hype train is out of control on Michael if people are taking him this early. Lynch just turned 27 and is coming off back to back seasons with 1,200+ rushing yards, 10+ touchdowns, and a total YPC of 4.65 over those two seasons with a total of only 600 carries. Lynch is the guy for 2-3 more seasons, which is an awful long time for someone with Michael’s history to sit and wait patiently without getting in trouble.
1.04 – Tavon Austin, WR STL
(Pre-Draft 1.01, Post Draft 1.01)
Ghost’s thoughts: In the end, Austin will have immediate impact and will only get better as the young Rams grow together. I feel embarrassed here having to decide which way to draft here, my top running back in the class (Bell) or my top receiver in the class in Austin. In the end, Austin is just way too dynamic to pass up with likely work at receiver, some running back touches and if you’re in a league that gives points for returning kicks, Austin fills the trifecta.
My thoughts: If I’m picking fourth or fifth in a draft where the first three picks go like they did in this one, I might feel the need to send out thank you cards to the rest of the league. Austin is my top rated player in a PPR league and getting him at the fourth pick is almost unthinkable. I’m still a little concerned about his size, but if you put his skill set into a body that was 6’2” and 210 pounds he would be the consensus 1.01 in pretty much every draft. It’s hard to imagine a better value than this.
1.05 – Montee Ball, RB DEN
(Pre-Draft 2.04, Post Draft 1.03)
Scott’s thoughts: I’m tempted to go with Lacy here as the toe injury and the risks that go with it are most likely overblown. Still, I can’t pass up on Ball at this spot. He should be a RB1 for years to come as there is no competition in the backfield, his skill set fits well in that offense and he is a three down player. Fox scares me a little bit though due to his well-documented veteran preference.
My thoughts: My love for Montee is well documented, so I’ll keep this brief. I have him as my second rated rookie overall in a PPR league and my top running back in the class. This would be the no brainer pick for me at 1.05 if he’s still there, but I think chances are he’s probably gone in most leagues by this point in time. If not, grab him as fast as you can.
1.06 – Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT
(Pre-Draft 2.08, Post Draft 1.09)
Eric O’s thoughts: I’m a big believer in Le’Veon Bell in Pittsburgh. A throwback to the old style Steelers football, look for Bell to quickly take over as the three down feature back. The only things in the way of him being the lead runner are ordinary talents Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman, which shouldn’t be a big issue.
My thoughts: Several have talked about Bell being this year’s Daniel Thomas. While I do feel he is being over valued and over drafted in a lot of leagues (especially by people taking him as a top 1-2 pick) based on his situation, he is a much better talent than Thomas. I’ve been a Bell supporter since way before the combine, so I like what he brings to the table. I just don’t see him being more than a RB2 in fantasy circles. In the middle of the first round, I like the pick. Early first, I’m not so sure on it.
1.07 – Cordarrelle Patterson, WR MIN
(Pre-Draft 1.04, Post Draft 1.05)
Derek’s thoughts: While I am taking a risk with Patterson, the potential upside is larger than any other player I could take at this point in time. I liked this spot in the draft a lot better when Patterson was going early and Hopkins was still available in the middle of the first because I much prefer Hopkins.
My thoughts: The shine around Patterson seems to have faded a little bit over the last month or so. I think it is more due to the general running back bias most fantasy owners have as we now see three or four running backs going in the top half of the first round while it was one or two a month or so ago. Patterson’s upside is still enormous. My main hesitation with him producing anytime soon stems more from his quarterback and the offense he will be working in than anything else. I like the pick in the middle of the first round.
1.08 – Keenan Allen, WR SD
(Pre-Draft 1.05, Post Draft 1.07)
Jarrett’s thoughts: Normally I would trade down here with someone who is hot to trot to get one of the remaining running backs. Because I’m stuck here, I’m going with the player I see as having the biggest receiver upside going to a team with a lack of depth at the position and with an offensive minded Head Coach. A non-severe PCL injury really set Allen back which has turned this former potential 1.01 candidate into a later first value pick.
My thoughts: Something just doesn’t feel right with Allen. By all accounts he had what was only a “minor” PCL tear (grade 2) back in October. It is now June, yet the latest reports out of Chargers camp are that he still isn’t quite 100 percent – that means we’re getting close to the nine month mark on this injury. A PCL injury should have been healed by now, which makes me question what is going on. Nonetheless, Allen has talent and could turn into a nice receiver in the NFL. He wouldn’t have been my choice at this pick, but it is about the right value for him.
1.09 – Eddie Lacy, RB GB
(Pre-Draft 1.02, Post Draft 1.06)
Eric H’s thoughts: Lacy seems like a victim of misinformation. First, “some teams” believe his toe injury will act up before his rookie contract ends, but as of yet there’s no hard evidence to support this. It’s also a popular assumption Green Bay doesn’t employ a rushing attack. I feel that’s more a byproduct of a recently marginal stable of ball carriers such as DuJuan Harris, James Starks and Cedric Benson. During Ryan Grant’s prime in 2008-2009, Grant posted back-to-back 1,200 yard seasons with 16 total touchdowns over the two years. GM Ted Thompson doesn’t mess around with his picks, and if he deemed Lacy worthy of a second round selection, we should all take notice. Even with fellow rookie Jonathan Franklin in town, I expect Lacy to receive the bulk of the work and push for high-end RB2 value as soon as 2013.
My thoughts: I agree with Eric on several points. The Packers can and have ran the ball. However, the last time they did was back when Aaron Rodgers was just becoming a starter. The game plan for the Packers is definitely different with a seasoned Rodgers than a young one. They will run, but not as much as they did back in 2008 and 2009. As for Ted Thompson, there are few GMs I trust more. The fact he felt the need to take Franklin a few rounds later tells me that even Thompson has some concerns about Lacy. Overall, I think Lacy’s upside is about that of Mikel Leshoure’s 2012 season (1,000 total yards with nine touchdowns) because Franklin is going to be involved as well.
1.10 – Justin Hunter, WR TEN
(Pre-Draft 1.08, Post Draft 1.08)
My thoughts: Hunter continues to be one of the more underrated and undervalued players in rookie drafts – that’s just fine by me since I pick late in all my leagues. Hunter’s upside is higher than just about any other receiver in this year’s draft. He has good size (though he could add a few pounds), great speed, nice hands and he runs decent routes. The only knock on him is the ACL injury back in 2011, but he seems to be completely over that.
When it comes to his situation, it honestly isn’t all that great. The Titans already have Kenny Britt and Kendall Wright. However, we all know about Britt’s issues and he’s a free agent after this year while Wright is a complimentary receiver. The bigger issue might be quarterback. Jake Locker needs to show that he can be a competent quarterback in the NFL before Hunter will ever reach his full fantasy potential. However, if Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon can both produce with the likes of Chad Henne at quarterback, I like Hunter’s chances with Locker. I love the value late in the first round.
1.11 – Markus Wheaton, WR PIT
(Pre-Draft 2.07, Post Draft 1.10)
Chris’ thoughts: In rookie drafts this is the spot Wheaton is getting drafted, though I would be willing to take him even a bit sooner. In a deep wide receiver class, I think Wheaton has been downplayed a bit. He has great ball skills, top end speed and big play potential – being drafted to Pittsburgh is just a bonus. Following the departure of Mike Wallace, there is a large role to be filled for which he has the perfect skillset. He could very well be starting by the season’s end.
My thoughts: I like Wheaton’s talents. While he doesn’t truly excel at any area of the game, he is definitely well above average in just about everything that you look at. He has nice speed, hands and quickness. He’ll probably need to bulk up just a bit in order to effectively handle press coverage, but that’s about the only knock that I have on him. As for his situation, it couldn’t be much better. The rest of the receivers on the roster for the Steelers are just average NFL talents in my opinion. If things go well for Wheaton over his rookie season he could end up being a starter in 2014.
1.12 – Tyler Eifert, TE CIN
(Pre-Draft 1.09, Post Draft 2.01)
Mark’s thoughts: I might be in the minority at this stage, but I still feel Eifert is one of the highest upside players in the draft. He isn’t without risk given the presence of Jermaine Gresham, but talent usually wins out and Eifert has plenty of that. I also considered Zac Stacy and Travis Kelce here, but felt Eifert had the best upside with the most guaranteed production of the three.
My thoughts: Mark seems to be a bit more optimistic about Eifret than I am. I think he has nice talent, but I don’t view him as having elite talent. As for the situation, I think he’s going to be splitting time with Gresham for the foreseeable future. When you combine a non-elite talent with an decent or even poor situation, I think you end up with limited upside in the range of a low end TE1 at best. I do feel he is a safe pick, so if you really need a tight end and can’t afford to miss on the pick, it might be a good choice very late in the first or early in the second.
Stay tuned for the second and third rounds of picks in the next few days.
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
