Dynasty Spotlight: Coby Fleener

When the Colts drafted Coby Fleener with the #34 overall pick last year, many in the dynasty community saw a permanent golden ticket to end our tight end woes.  We saw a 6’6”, 250 pound play making receiving tight end who just so happened to have played college ball with a quarterback the Colts selected as the #1 overall draft pick in Andrew Luck.  Many bought into the hype.

Then, 2012 happened.  Fleener finished the year ranked as the #37 scoring PPR TE in fantasy football and last in our hearts, perhaps. To make matters worse, it was teammate, Dwayne Allen, who garnered all the attention from the fantasy world as he finished as the #23 TE in PPR, despite being drafted in the third round that same year.

Fleener had a terrible rookie year.  Not only did Allen perform better in the passing game, but so did one of this off-season’s hottest commodities, T.Y. Hilton, who was drafted #92 overall.  Again, Fleener was bad.  He caught only 26 passes for 281 yards and just two touchdowns in 12 games as he was hampered by a shoulder injury.  In his last five games, Fleener caught five passes for 59 yards, but did manage to score his two total touchdowns for the year during that magical stretch.  To be fair, Fleener was on pace for 52 receptions before dislocating his shoulder.  Also, let’s not forget it can take tight ends a year or two to become acclimated to the NFL game – their main focus is often blocking assignments, not run routes, catch ball (Gronk voice). This didn’t ease the mind of his fantasy owners, but with a new year, brings new hopes – and I have a lot of hope for Fleener in 2013.

Bruce Arians is gone.  He’s set out West for the desert as the Arizona Cardinals hired him to be their new head coach.  When Arians left for sandy ‘pastures,’ it left the door open for new offensive coordinator, Pep Hamilton – who just so happened to be both Fleener and Luck’s offensive coordinator at Stanford. Hamilton ran a West Coast Offense in his college days and has been quoted as saying, “It’ll be a variation of the West Coast (with) West Coast principles. The short, efficient passing game, a high completion rate.”  In other words, a tight end’s dream.  Furthermore, the Colts plan to get Fleener the ball in space more this year which can only help the young tight end make more plays with bigger gains.  Davis Mattek, a DLF Member’s Corner contributor, wrote about what to expect in a Hamilton-coached offense here.

During his senior season, Fleener had 34 receptions for 667 yards (19.2 YPC) and ten touchdowns.  There’s no reason he can’t match or exceed those numbers in the NFL due to his body type, athletic ability and natural pass catching hands.

I reached out to Rotoworld’s Josh Norris to get his scouting report on Fleener before 2012’s NFL Draft. He said “[Fleener is] more Greg Olsen than Rob Gronkowski. Consistent vertical threat that gets downfield quickly. Thin frame and shows when getting out physical at catch point by smaller DBs. Consistently gets bumped off his route by physical LBs. Can really turn and run up field after the catch. Does use push off against trailing safeties, catch back shoulder on crossing routes. Overextends when blocking too often when inline, can certainly be fixed. Matches up very well versus slower LBs, bigger/physical DBs give him more problems, like Robert Blanton. Doesn’t latch on when blocking, punches and readjusts. Agile in his routes but not outstandingly so.  Makes tough catches on good throws. Are hesitations in routes for timing purposes or lack of agility/nimbleness?  A fantastic burst after the catch, breaks away but shows he doesn’t run routes at full speed. I think Stanford’s multiple TE sets took pressure/coverage off of him. Many catches were wide open and not because of route running, other TEs took the contact in the box. Struggles with balls closer to the ground. More finesse than physical.”

Josh also had Allen graded slightly higher than Fleener (6.1 and 6.0, respectively).

Here are Fleener’s college statistics:

Year	Rec	Yards	TDs
2008	13	176	0
2009	21	266	1
2010	28	434	7
2011	34	667	10

Fleener managed to increase his receptions, yards and touchdowns in each consecutive year.  As he neared his senior season, he became Luck’s go-to target in the red zone and his 19.2 YPC stands out as the best amongst Stanford receivers who caught 20+ balls.  In short, Luck trusted him when his team needed a score. Take a look at how Fleener’s combine performance compared to some of the other starting tight ends among your league mates. It’s pretty hefty company, athletically speaking:

Player	Height	Weight	40YD	Bench Press	Vertical	Broad	20 YS	3 Cone
Jared Cook	77	246	4.49	23	31	105	4.51	7.19
Jordan Cameron	77	254	4.53	23	36	121	4.58	7.19
Coby Fleener	78	247	4.52	27	30	111	4.3	7.25
Jimmy Graham	78	260	4.53	15	42	128	4.17	7
Greg Olsen	78	254	4.51	23	34.5	114	4.48	7.04

Writer’s note: This table’s sole purpose is to remind you how gifted Fleener is, nothing else.  I’m not saying he’s the next Jimmy Graham and I’m certainly not saying he’s the next Jared Cook.  I’m saying these were his combine results and the others are those who performed at his level in each category.  A big thank you to Coleman Kelly for compiling this data on his neat-o Excel spreadsheets.

Colts head coach, Chuck Pagano, was quoted as saying this regarding Fleener, “You saw today.  He made some outstanding catches so he’s making progress every day.  What did he have, 20, 30-something catches last year?  That should double.” Now we should all pump our brakes when coaches start talking up their players this early in the season, but there is truth in this.  As I said earlier, Fleener was on pace for 52 catches (double his season total) before getting injured.  If he can reach, or even surpass that number, he’ll be in the conversation of having a top ten season at the position.

Make no mistake about it, I like (if not love) me some Allen, but it’s Fleener who has the nice price tag and, in my mind, better future dynasty value.  I took a look at Ryan McDowell’s monthly ADP mock drafts he’s been running and this is what the data displays:

Player	March	April	May	June
Fleener	TE20/179.17	TE20/164.5	TE23/165.33	TE18/146
Allen	TE20/122.5	TE13/122.33	TE13/142.33	TE16/141

It seems the dynasty community is already warming back up to Fleener and his new offensive coordinator as seen by his rise to the TE18 after hovering in the twenties for three months prior.  The DLF rankers (on average) have Allen at #17 and Fleener #21 – even we’re sleeping on him (or them).Forget about 2012 or just throw it out the window.  Holding grudges against your previous year’s first round draft picks gets you nowhere.  Instead, breathe a breath of fresh air as 2013 is nearing and your tight end’s stock is rising.