Dynasty Stock Market: Who’s the QB2 for you?
In the last edition of the Dynasty Stock Market, I zoned in on the most recent ADP data for the quarterback position. If you’ll recall, after taking a quick look at the consensus top ten (according not only to ADP, but most sets of dynasty rankings as well), I identified two issues that should cause dynasty owners to look past that stellar top ten and into the next tier of quarterbacks. First, with a clear top ten like we have, in most leagues that leaves at least two owners without a starting quarterback. Because of this it is important to have a fallback plan for the starting quarterback position. Last week, I focused on those potential short-term starting options, for those teams lacking an elite signal caller.
Now, let’s focus on the other important reason that you should all familiarize yourselves with the value of the second, and even third tier quarterbacks. Obviously a starter at any position is a key cog in the success of your team, but having a trusted fantasy backup is essential. Lets find the perfect QB2 for you.
Before we dive into the second tier of quarterbacks, let’s review the top ten, along with some characteristics of each that will help determine the best fit for a backup quarterback.
Trusted Veterans
For the purpose of this article, I will also be including Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning with the top tier of quarterbacks, although he has been consistently drafted as the QB11 in our DLF mock drafts with a sizable gap between he and the number ten quarterback off the board.
Among the top ten (top eleven including Manning) there are four players who have established themselves as top fantasy quarterbacks year in and year out. It is a safe assumption that as long as these guys are suiting up for their NFL team, they should be submitted into your weekly lineup. Along with Manning, they are Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. Those four players have a total of forty seasons played in which they saw action in twelve games or more. Among those forty seasons, they have finished as QB1s (among the top twelve quarterbacks in a single season) 39 times. That’s a 98% clip and a number you can feel pretty secure with.
High Upside Youngsters
The next group of top quarterbacks is a rather large collection of young talent. Among those are Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford. These seven have an average age of only 24 years old and have a grand total of twelve seasons as starting quarterbacks. Of those twelve seasons, the young group has posted ten seasons as QB1s, with only first two seasons of Matt Ryan’s career falling short of that mark. So, while there may be a bit more risk with these players due to their short track record, there is enough data to show that they should be drafted as starting fantasy quarterbacks.
Now that we have sorted our starters in two groups, let’s match those starters with potential backup quarterbacks that would be an ideal fit. Member Corner writer Mike Reardon did an excellent job explaining this concept in his recent article explaining a new way to rank quarterbacks.  I would direct you there for his thoughts, but in short, the better starter you have, the more freedom you have when choosing a backup quarterback, be that in a startup draft or just working to improve your existing team. Not only do you want to consider the quality of the backup, but also his age and standing with his team.  That is the premise of my idea and the easiest way to find the ideal backup quarterback.
If you have drafted or otherwise acquired one of the four trusted veteran quarterbacks, owning another veteran as a backup makes little sense. Ideally, if you own one of the eleven top starting quarterbacks, you will only need your backup once a season. Of course, injuries occur, and that is why studying this lower tier of passers is important. But, in the best case, these players will rarely get off your bench. Because of that, with a veteran starter, you want to target a young, high upside backup. While a player like Tony Romo is a solid quarterback and has a good chance to finish among the top twelve fantasy passers this year, having him as your backup behind Rodgers or Brady makes little sense. Instead, use that draft pick on another position and grab a younger quarterback later. Or, if you have two players like this in an existing league, trade one for value elsewhere.
Let’s get down to it and find some quality backup quarterbacks for teams with a trusted veteran starter.
Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA
Although Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill had somewhat of a disappointing rookie season, the team has added some pass catchers that should make his sophomore season much better. Miami was active in free agency, adding wide receivers Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson and tight end Dustin Keller. Along with veteran Brian Hartline, the receiving corps will be much improved and expect Tannehill to greatly improve on his QB24 performance in 2012. He is an ideal backup quarterback if you own either Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, who may be nearing the end of their career.
Andy Dalton, QB CIN
Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the game. Not only has he had success with the Bengals, leading the team to back to back playoff berths for the first time since 1981-1982, but Dalton has also been a solid option for his fantasy owners, finishing as a top fifteen fantasy quarterback in each of his first two seasons.  In contrast, the Falcons Matt Ryan posted QB16 and QB19 seasons his first two years, and is now among the top fantasy starters in the game. Dalton would be a solid backup for any of the veteran starters.
Sam Bradford, QB STL
A year ago, I blasted the fantasy performance of Rams quarterback Sam Bradford. After all, in his initial three seasons, he has finished as the QB20, QB31 (while missing six games) and QB20. It seems each off-season the Rams have added multiple offensive weapons for Bradford, yet there has been little improvement. It has happened again this year with the addition of Jared Cook via free agency and rookie wide receivers Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. The good news is that Bradford did set career highs in 2012 with just over 3,700 passing yards and 21 passing touchdowns. For him to break into the top twelve quarterbacks, all those numbers must improve.
If you have one of the veteran quarterbacks as your starter, those three are prime candidates to fill your backup position. There are several more young starting fantasy quarterbacks, which works perfectly, since there are quite a few possible backups that would be the ideal fit. If you are starting Newton, Luck, Kaepernick, Griffin III, Wilson, Ryan or Stafford, targeting a consistent veteran performer is the best choice to pair with your young stud. While those seven quarterbacks have proven themselves in the short term, there are still risks that accompany them, just as any player. Because of that, having a quality backup that you feel comfortable slotting in as your starter for a few weeks in a necessity. There are several veterans that can give your starter’s fantasy numbers at a backup’s price. Here are a few of them.:
Ben Roethlisberger, QB PIT
Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has had an injury riddled and inconsistent career when it comes to his fantasy performances. Roethlisberger has suited up for all sixteen games just once in his career, but the most games he’s missed in a single season is four, back in 2010. He has one top five finish, along with three others that would qualify as a QB1 in twelve team leagues. Roethlisberger was on pace for another QB1 type of year in 2012 before he was injured and missed three games. Now, he will be without his former deep threat Mike Wallace, who has moved on to South Beach. Also, his trusted tight end Heath Miller could miss extensive game action following his torn ACL late in 2012. While none of these are particularly good things for Roethlisberger, he does still have some solid weapons on offense and always seems to come back strong when he is doubted. I don’t want to go into 2013 with him as my starter, but he’s the perfect backup to Kaepernick, Griffin III or Luck.
Michael Vick, QB PHI
Eagles quarterback Michael Vick is a great backup for the dynasty owner who likes to gamble. With an ADP finding him in the thirteenth round, he allows you to wait quite a while before adding a second quarterback. His past fantasy success, along with the excitement and anticipation of a Chip Kelly NFL offense gives Vick a very high ceiling as a fantasy passer. After all, he has three seasons where he finished as a top five fantasy quarterback. With that high upside comes some major risk, otherwise, he’d be in that top group I mentioned earlier. Like Roethlisberger, Vick rarely makes it through a full season, playing in all sixteen games just one time. In 2012, after looking lost on offense and becoming a turnover machine, Vick was injured and didn’t play again until the meaningless week 17. Also, there now seems to be a logjam at the quarterback position for the Eagles. It is no lock that Vick will win the job over Nick Foles and the team also added former USC quarterback Matt Barkley on draft weekend. So, Vick is the epitome of a boom/bust player, and worth the gamble as a backup quarterback to one of the high upside youngsters like Ryan or Stafford.
Jay Cutler, QB CHI
Jay Cutler’s career since joining the Chicago Bears mirrors the first few years of the Rams’ Sam Bradford. Despite high expectations and all the pieces in place, Cutler continues to disappoint his fantasy owners, not to mention Bears fans. In his four years in the Windy City, Cutler’s best finish was as the QB13, and that was prior to the addition of elite wide receiver Brandon Marshall. Also, like Bradford, the team has again made changes intended to aide Cutler, specifically the hiring of new head coach Marc Trestman, who is well known for his past work with quarterbacks. In fact, nearly every one of the quarterbacks Trestman has previously coached saw the yards per game increase. Also on the rise for many was their touchdowns to interception ratio, making it clear that Trestman and the Bears will not be scared to throw the ball around in 2013. Again, like Bradford, I’m willing to give Cutler one more shot to prove himself as a fantasy quarterback.
Carson Palmer, QB ARI
The Arizona Cardinals made acquiring a new starting quarterback a priority this off-season and they did just that, pulling off a trade with the Oakland Raiders for veteran Carson Palmer. Palmer had two disappointing seasons in Oakland, but with multiple coaches, injuries to his running backs and wide receivers and dealing with his own nagging ailments, that comes as no surprise. In the desert, Palmer is likely taking on his final chance as a starter in the league. One factor that could help Palmer enjoy success as a Cardinal is veteran wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald is coming off his worst season by far, finishing as WR42 even though he played all sixteen games. The Cardinals featured a merry-go-round at quarterback last season, leading to ten games where Fitzgerald caught five or fewer passes. With his work ethic and the upgrade at quarterback, expect Fitzgerald to bounce back in a big way, which will only help Palmer. I am reminded of his years in Cincinnati when Palmer was locked in with receiver Chad Johnson, and hope for the same in Arizona. As a player taken on average in round 18, he is easily worth the gamble as a short-term fantasy backup.
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