My Rookie Draft Pick Tendencies

I have finally reached the point where almost all my fantasy drafts are over.  The only draft left is my modified keeper league, the Fantasy Premier League. This league also has fellow DLF’ers Jarrett Behar and Dr. Scott Peak.  With eight rookie drafts and one start-up leagues behind me, I discovered a few rookies who I seem to take over and over. Spotting these trends can be important for you, especially if you’re in multiple leagues with the same people as your hand may have already been played, so to speak.

Markus Wheaton, WR PIT
(drafted him in four leagues)

Sure, the obvious thought is I’m a Steelers fan, so it makes sense that I would draft one of their players.  Truth be told, I don’t usually like to draft players from my favorite team.  Wheaton, however, is passionate and has the physical talent to be a very successful NFL and fantasy receiver.  At this point, the only thing getting in this rookie’s way is his late college graduation, so he will have less practice time than the other receivers early on.  Wheaton is quick twitched and a more physical player than Emmanuel Sanders could ever be.  He has been compared to Sanders, Antonio Brown and even Hines Ward.  I see him closer to Carolina’s Steve Smith, even with the same burst and fiery spirit.  It would not surprise me if Wheaton beats out Sanders as the Steelers WR2 by October.  I am drafting him at the end of the first round in a rookie draft, but have seen him last until the late second round in a few leagues. I drafted him in the 11th round in the DLF IDP start-up draft (which obviously contained more than just rookies).

Zac Stacy, RB STL
(drafted him in three leagues)

I first noticed Stacy during the Music City Bowl this year.  He was almost Vanderbilt’s entire offense in that game as he ran the ball from the I-formation, took direct snaps from the shotgun (attempting one pass) and lined up in the slot.  His running style is low to the ground with power.  When I got to see him in person at the East/West Shrine Game practices, his vision and wiggle were even more clear.  Right now, he has the world beaters Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead (sarcasm), in front of him on the depth chart.  Unlike those backs, Stacy attacks the line of scrimmage with a blend of power and speed.  I am fully confident, much like, Wheaton, that Stacy will be a starter by the time “It’s the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown” is on the air again.  Stacy has crept up drafts as I took him in my first rookie draft in the third round, but had to take him in the first in a more current draft.  I selected him in the 12th round, right after my selection of Wheaton, in the DLF IDP league.

Justin Hunter, WR TEN
(drafted him in two leagues)

This was perhaps my biggest gamble as I took him towards the end of the first round, as his role in the Tennessee offense is very unclear right now.  Hunter is physically gifted with a huge wingspan, contorts himself well to the ball and makes difficult catches; however, he does not play with toughness and has simply not looked the same since his 2011 knee injury.  If Hunter can return to pre-injury form, he may be the best receiver in his class.   Otherwise, the muddy quarterback situation with Jake Locker (and even worse situation with Kenny Britt) leaves everyone, including myself, guessing as to his fantasy impact in 2013 and beyond.

Stedman Bailey, WR STL
(drafted him in two leagues)

Unlike his former and current teammate Tavon Austin, Bailey’s talent and role in the St. Louis offense are very much in doubt a there is a logjam at wide receiver with second year receivers Chris Givens and Brian Quick already on the roster.  Bailey is a good route runner who relies on his speed and quickness in and out of breaks, but he isn’t physically dominating with size or power, so he might get lost in year one.  Bailey and Austin worked well together in West Virginia, so I expect Bailey’s lunch pail workmanship will win over Coach Fisher in time.  Bailey is getting drafted in the second round or later in most rookie drafts and I selected him in the 17th round of the DLF IDP start-up.

Joseph Randle, RB DAL
(drafted him in two leagues)

I was not a fan of his upright running style at Oklahoma State, but his skill set matches the Cowboys offense.  He has good hands, runs well in space, demonstrates downfield vision and takes great angles when he has the ball.  With the emergence of Dez Bryant, Dallas is built to sling the ball down the field instead of lining up to run the power-I formation.  Randle should spell the oft-injured DeMarco Murray and may see more carries than anyone could predict if Murray does not alter his running style (which at this writing Murray stated he would not change).  I picked him up as a handcuff to Murray in the 19th round of the start-up.  Randle usually gets picked as the ninth running back off the board in rookie drafts.

Travis Kelce, TE KC
(drafted him in two leagues)

Kelce is one of my favorite rookie tight ends because he doesn’t have the name of Tyler Eifert or Zach Ertz, but brings the same amount of effort and talent.  The new Chiefs tight end is a three down player who can block as well as he can catch – this will make him an important cog in the Chiefs offense.  His quarterback, Alex Smith, did not always use the tight end as much as he should, but new coach Andy Reid features athletic tight ends in his offense.  I expect Kelce to have a decent rookie year with around 500 yards receiving and four or five touchdowns, but certainly take a bigger step into fantasy stardom in 2014.

Vince Williams, LB PIT
(Acquired on waivers in two leagues)

My gosh, another Steeler? Come on man, you are killing me (I know, but he is dirt cheap)! The former Florida State linebacker is very athletic and is a leader on and off the field.  He went undrafted in every league I was in.  I picked him up in a few leagues because Larry Foote is long in the tooth, Stevenson Sylvester is a special teams player, and 2012 third rounder Sean Spence may never play football again. Williams plays hard and fast, leaving him open to a lot of mistakes, but I think he will excel under the tutelage of Linebackers Coach/Assistant Defensive Cordinator Keith Butler and evolve into a dependable thumper in the Steelers 3-4 defense.  If you have a taxi squad, chances are Williams can stay there all year learning what it means to be a Steelers linebacker. 

Devin Taylor, DE DET
(acquired him on waivers in two leagues)

Taylor is another East/West Shrine Game participant who caught my eye in St. Petersburg.  He is tall (6′ 7″) and very powerful anchoring along the line of scrimmage.  The young defensive end needs to improve his quickness, but he is very disruptive when he gets his hands up as he can either swat the ball down or intercept it.  The Lions are revamping their defensive line, so Taylor will get the chance to play, especially on rushing downs.  He will not concern offenses as much as guys like Suh and Ansah, so he will rarely see a double team.   This young defensive end was also available on waivers after the draft and while he may never be a DE1-2, he could become a solid DE3 who is an effective run-stuffer with a few coverage sacks/batted balls a year.

Who are some of the players you’re tending to end up with in rookie drafts?  Why do you seem to like them more than most? Comment below and keep the discussion alive!

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