The Chip Kelly Offense: Part Two
Welcome back to my attempt at forecasting the enigma that is Chip Kelly’s offense as he transitions to the NFL. In the first article, I broke down Kelly’s college offense over the last three years to get a good idea of how he uses each of the positions on his roster. In this article, I’m going to examine the players currently on the Eagles’ roster and grade their fit with Kelly’s system as well as make a bit of a projection at what we can expect from this this year.
I feel a little bit like a meteorologist in that all I’m really doing is making an educated guess. Chip Kelly could switch to a very traditional style of offense or tailor what he does to suit the personnel on his team. That definitely could happen. However, I’m going to guess a lot of what he does in the NFL will be based in what he did in college.
If you missed the first article, make sure that you go take a look at it. I’ll be referencing parts of it quite a bit. As discussed previously, Kelly’s offense flows through the running back position with the pass catchers fighting over whatever crumbs might be left.
I expect the positional breakdown to be roughly consistent in the NFL version of Kelly’s offense. However, I don’t expect the offense to be quite as potent in the NFL. Expecting the Eagles to average 47.5 points per game with 300 yards of rushing per game (which were the averages of Oregon’s offense over the last three years) just isn’t realistic. I’m going to guess that we will get about 60%-70% of the results which is still an awful lot to spread around.
Let’s take a look at who might be getting the ball. I’ll start by describing the general mold of the player that Kelly had in college and then compare the players currently on the roster to that mold and see what we get.
Quarterbacks
College Mold – Both the starting quarterbacks who worked under Kelly the past three years were around 6’3” and 215 pounds. They were also athletic with fairly strong arms. They used their mobility to move the pocket and throw on the run, to scramble when pressured, and on a few designed runs as well. Often times they operated out of the shotgun and were rarely asked to drop back from center and stand in the pocket. They seemed to work more as a facilitator, handing the ball off most of the time but keeping it or passing it just enough to keep defenses honest. A premium was placed on not turning the ball over and making accurate passes when needed.
Michael Vick
From an athletic standpoint, it would be tough to find a much better fit than Vick. The problems come into play when you look at the accuracy that Vick does or rather doesn’t have. Kelly’s mix of bubble screens and quick slants will help some of that but Kelly seems to game plan around making certain that those few shots they do take downfield pay off.
The other question that ties in rather closely with this is ball security. Kelly likes his quarterbacks to keep the ball safe. They were limited to about 1 turnover every 2 games over the three years while Vick tends to average about 1-1.5 turnovers for each game. He’ll need to be a little more careful with the football if he’s hoping to stay the starter for several more years to come. He’ll also need to stay healthy.
Fit Grade: B
Nick Foles
Foles is almost the exact opposite of what Kelly looks for in a quarterback. While the size is nice, he really isn’t a mobile quarterback by any stretch of the imagination. He also has questionable decision making and isn’t the most accurate of quarterbacks. To me, that is three strikes and you’re out. I don’t really see him fitting in to the long term plans.
Fit Grade: F
Matt Barkley
Barkley is a lot like Foles in a lot of ways and I don’t really understand why the pick was made. My guess is it has a lot to do with Kelly’s familiarity with PAC-12 schools and their players. Barkley isn’t any more mobile than Foles. Barkley’s only real strengths when it comes to potentially running this offense is that he does a nice job running a no huddle and making quick decisions. He could execute Kelly’s offense with the exception of the mobile quarterback part.
Fit Grade: C-
Fantasy Projection for the Eagles’ starting quarterback: 3,200 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns with 100 rushes for 500 yards and five touchdowns.
Running Backs
College Mold – For the most part, Kelly likes smaller, quick running backs who can hit the hole quickly on the interior rushes as well as turn the corner on outside runs. He trusts the motion of the offense as well as the multi-faceted attack to help open up the holes and present the opportunity for the runner instead of just overpowering the other team. The ability to be involved in the passing game is a plus, but not a major requirement since so little time is actually spent passing the ball.
Kelly uses multiple running backs, but there is a definite pecking order to the tune of about a 75%/25% kind of split. The secondary back really only sees the field when the primary one needs a breather.
LeSean McCoy
If Chip Kelly had the power to create a running back out of clay, it would probably end up being a lot like McCoy. McCoy has the quickness and speed that Kelly requires. From a pass catching stand point, I think the days of McCoy approaching double digit catches in a game are gone but the rushing numbers should be much more consistent to balance that out. Unless he gets injured, McCoy should be the clear cut primary running back with consistent 18-22 touch games including a handful of receptions.
Fit Grade: A
Bryce Brown
Brown has the speed and quickness that are going to be needed in this offense to break the big runs to the outside. The parts he is missing are the ball security and the ability to hit the hole with authority when running between the tackles. The good news for Brown is the secondary backup running back in Kelly’s offense does get a solid 5-10 touches a game in relief of the primary running back. While that isn’t going to be enough to start him on a regular basis (unless McCoy gets injured) he could be an emergency fill-in.
Fit Grade: B
Felix Jones
He is the third running back pretty much by default at this point in time. Unfortunately, that really doesn’t mean much. Unlike some coaches that specialize in the backfield, Kelly prefers a two back rotation that’s goal is to keep the running backs fresh. Unless there is an injury, Jones isn’t going to see more than five touches a game. Even If he does make it onto the field and can stay there, the hopes for solid production should be kept in check. The skill set fits for the most part, but the injuries have sapped some of the quickness and made him much better suited for a backup role.
Fit Grade: C+
Fantasy Projection for the Eagles’ backfield (not counting quarterback rushing): 410 carries for 2,150 yards and 27 rushing touchdowns with 80 receptions for 560 yards and 8 touchdowns.
Using a rough 75%/25% split, that means roughly the following with the unaccounted for amounts going to others in the backfield:
Primary running back: 300 carries for 1,600 yards and 16 touchdowns with 55 catches for 400 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Secondary running back: 100 carries for 500 yards and 8 touchdowns with 15 catches for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns.
*Something to watch*
There has been a lot of talk about DeSean Jackson taking on more of a hybrid role like De’Anthony Thomas had at Oregon. The issue with this plan is Jackson is a receiver while Thomas is a running back. Kelly doesn’t have any history of using receivers in the running game; however, something like this could happen since there seems to be an awful lot of talk about it and Jackson’s size/skills would work well in that type of role.
If it does happen, I would look for Jackson to get about five carries a game – that isn’t a significant amount, but it would mean good things for Jackson’s value. It will also eat a little bit into the workload of the other running backs making it more of a 70/15/15 or 65/20/15 type of split. It would still leave McCoy as a high end RB1, but Brown’s value would be more of a pure handcuff at that point in time.
Wide Receivers
College Mold – Like the running backs, speed is a big deal for Kelly’s wide receivers. When it comes to size, Kelly has used both smaller, faster guys as well as bigger guys who were not quite as fast. The ability to block downfield is important as is the speed to stretch the field. While they didn’t touch the ball a ton, they are still quite involved in keeping defenses honest as well as the bigger bodies catching passes in the red zone. Keep in mind that we are only talking about 3-4 receptions per game for the top guy and 2-3 receptions per game for a few others. This is an important, but not highly productive role in the offense.
DeSean Jackson
Jackson definitely has the speed and quickness. He also has some versatility that Chip Kelly could make use of (see above). One thing that Jackson will need to work on is his blocking down the field on run plays. It is something that Kelly demands out of his receivers and something that Jackson hasn’t been all that willing to do in the past. I see him fitting the deep threat role in the offense and possibly being used in a hybrid role. Without the hybrid role, we are talking about an average game line of about 4/50/0.4 if Kelly’s offense stays as run heavy as it has been. That wouldn’t be good for Jackson’s fantasy value.
Fit Grade: B- (Receiver only) B+ (hybrid role)
Jeremy Maclin
Maclin’s issue for his career is he really isn’t all that different from Jackson in a lot of ways. He isn’t quite as fast or quick, but he is slightly bigger and does run better routes. He’ll still be second fiddle to Jackson if both are lined up as receivers. If the primary receiver is only 4/50/0.4, that isn’t good news for Maclin’s value. He also doesn’t have the size to be the red zone guy in this offense. His owners need to hope that Jackson spends a lot of time as a hybrid so that Maclin can at least be the primary pass catcher. Then maybe he can sign elsewhere for the 2014 season.
Fit Grade: C-
The rest – After Maclin and Jackson there is a massive log jam at the position. Pretty much all of them are equally (un)talented or just poor fits for Kelly’s offense. Riley Cooper has the best size, but he isn’t the best talent in the group. It would surprise me if anyone not named Jackson or Maclin catches more than 20 passes this year out of the wide receiver group, barring a major injury.
Fantasy Projection for Eagles’ receivers:
Primary – 60 receptions for 800 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Secondary – 45 receptions for 600 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Tight Ends
College Mold: At least one if not two tight ends always seemed to be on the field in Kelly’s offense. One of them tended to be in line as an extra blocker while the second one, typically very athletic, would be running over the middle of the field. When compared to the receivers, the tight ends were almost equally productive in a lot of cases and often times the primary targets in the red zone. Just keep in mind that equally productive to receivers isn’t saying much in this offense. We are looking at about 3-4 catches for 30-40 yards and 0.5 touchdowns a game for the primary tight end.
One other item to watch with the tight ends is that Kelly did show a small tendency to line them up in the backfield as an H-back type of role and give them some limited carries each game. It won’t be enough to make or break someone’s fantasy value, but it is something to watch.
Brent Celek
I think his days of being a fantasy asset for the Eagles are over. He isn’t athletic enough to be the pass catching option at tight end. That means that his role, when on the field, will most likely be as the sixth lineman helping to pave the way for the running backs. The best case for his fantasy value would be that the Eagles decide he is being paid too much to just be a blocker and they cut him, letting him go to a different team.
Fit Grade: D-
James Casey
Depending on your league, he might be listed as a running back, which would kill his value. I think he will be the H-back for Kelly’s offense, splitting time between the backfield and the slot. His versatility and skill set might make him a decent fit for Kelly’s offense and it just might have him on the field more than any of the other tight ends. If Celek ends up getting cut, then Casey will probably fill a lot of the blocking load, which would be bad news for his fantasy value. Casey owners should want Celek to stick around so Casey can catch the passes. Unfortunately Casey’s size isn’t quite ideal for the red zone role.
Fit Grade: B-
Zach Ertz
The early second round pick actually landed in a fairly good spot when it comes to playing time, but a pretty bad one when it comes to production. I think Ertz could see the field early and often as the pass catching tight end or lining up in the slot. He’ll fill the pass catching void over the middle of the field and make for a very nice red zone target. He’ll need to work on his blocking ability though if he’s going stay on the field through all of the downs. Unfortunately, even if he does win the lead role, we aren’t looking at a ton of production from him due to the limited pass catching opportunities in this offense.
Fit Grade: B+
Fantasy Projections for Eagles’ Tight Ends:
Pass catcher – 45 receptions for 500 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Others – 25 receptions for 200 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Bottom Line
Chip Kelly’s offense should be good fantasy news for anyone who starts the snap in the backfield and bad news for everyone else. If you can get WR2 prices for any of the receivers, I would take it unless you’re counting on them having a new team in 2014. The receivers just aren’t fantasy producers.
As for the running backs, there will be a lot of touches and a lot of use, but there is also a definite pecking order and it hasn’t ever been a 1A and 1B kind of situation for Kelly. There’s always been a lead and a backup. McCoy should be a top five running back while Brown could creep into RB3 territory.
If Vick can learn the offense and stay on the field, he could make his way into low end QB1 territory, but it would be much safer to only count on him to be your QB2. It is yet to be seen if he can still be as agile and fast as he was in his younger days. If he is, his rushing totals might start to approach, but not reach, his 2010 season.
About the only thing that is for certain when it comes to Chip Kelly’s offense is that it will be exciting to watch this fall. The tempo and the little wrinkles that he brings from his college game could change the face of NFL offenses for years to come or it could fall flat on its face. Hopefully this pair of articles has helped to give you a little more information on what might happen in the city of brotherly love.
Good luck!
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
