Rookie Spotlight: Jordan Reed

Editor’s Note: We recently mentioned Jordan Reed’s name in an article about the underrated status of Fred Davis. We discourage the “group think” mentality at DLF, so be sure to read both articles to decide which direction you may want to go in with Reed and Davis.

When evaluating projections and potential for specific players, especially rookies, a few high-level variables all need to be taken into consideration.

First and generally the most clear at this point in the off-season is talent. How well did the player perform at the collegiate level? Looking beyond the numbers, what was his level of competition? Is there any additional information you can infer from tape and scouting reports?

The second is opportunity, often an unknown early which becomes clearer as the off-season progresses. What does the depth chart look like ahead of him at his position? Is he a good fit for the system he’s entering? Does he have the skills to play on every down?

Third and most open to interpretation is relative value in your fantasy draft. Based on your analysis of the information from the first two variables, does the player’s talent level and perceived opportunity create value for you if selected in a specific round? I’m a proponent of drafting best player available over team need, but if you choose the latter how does this player’s value compare with other players you are considering at this point in the draft? Are other drafters targeting this player as well?

It is from this perspective that new Washington Redskin Jordan Reed should be at the top of your draft board to target with late round selection. At 6’3″, 240 pounds, the tight end out of Florida is considered by some to be undersized and raw, especially needing work in his blocking. Gator predecessor Aaron Hernandez, listed at 6’1″, 245 pounds had a very similar scouting report and has widely been considered a strong NFL comparison for Reed (including significant recent debates on Twitter). Head coach Mike Shanahan said of Reed “We feel [Reed] has those intangibles you’re looking for. He’s a lot like Hernandez. I’m not sure if Hernandez is that fast, but he has the ability to beat linebackers and defensive backs because he knows how to run routes. This guy is similar.”

Each playing three years at Florida, Hernandez totaled 1,398 yards from scrimmage with 12 touchdowns while Reed totaled 1,273 yards with 11 touchdowns. While Hernandez was a tight end from the start, Reed had 77 carries and 46 pass attempts in 2010.

That comparison noted, we obviously can’t automatically jump to the conclusion Reed will be as successful against NFL competition. Learning the tight end position under former Florida offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, he has experience with a pro-style system and led the Gators in receiving in 2012. Talent-wise, good hands and solid route-running complement his speed to form the skill set of a strong receiving tight end. His versatility will allow the Redskins to line him up in a variety of formations, though in an effort to be a stronger blocker and red-zone presence (and therefore stay on the field more) Reed may need to bulk up some, however.

In the Washington offense, tight end was not necessarily an area of need prior to the 2013 draft. However, as proven when quarterback Kirk Cousins was selected in 2012, Shanahan is willing to draft on value and best player available over positional need. Though coming off an injury and suspension due to a failed drug test, Fred Davis is back on a one year deal. Niles Paul is also a receiving tight end, though he has even less experience than Reed at the position after transitioning from wide receiver prior to last season. Logan Paulsen is the best blocker of the group and doesn’t pose much of a receiving threat. What this adds up to is a crowded tight end group, especially if all make the roster cut (with a lot of contribution to special teams), but not a lot of receiving talent ahead of Reed on the depth chart. Combined with Shanahan’s glowing reviews (“deceptive speed,” “intriguing,” “natural receiver”), Reed should see plenty of opportunity on the field even in his first season.

Assuming he does climb the chart quickly, for fantasy purposes, Shanahan’s history of using the tight end position is mixed at best. PPR productivity by tight ends in Shanahan offenses breaks down as follows:

Hall of Fame inductee Shannon Sharpe stands out in this group, indicating with the right players, Shanahan will use tight ends as primary receiving options. Tony Scheffler was a popular fantasy sleeper for three seasons, but couldn’t quite put it together before leaving for Detroit and being thrust into a backup role. Chris Cooley, similar in size to Reed (and drafted at #81 overall in 2004 to Reed’s #85 this year) enjoyed some success before injuries started to mount in 2011.

Reed’s size and skill set point toward him being more of a non-prototypical “joker” tight end, meaning he could be used in a variety of roles a la his current Patriot NFL comparison. Shanahan’s system and Reed’s relative inexperience as a tight end may translate into limited fantasy potential early on. Long-term, however, I think Reed will be a strong option for Robert Griffin III as he creates mismatches all over the field.

Much like his draft spot in the 2013 NFL Draft, Reed’s value is too good to pass up in dynasty startup and rookie drafts. In DLF May mock drafts, Reed is being taken as a mid-TE3 (#30) in round #19 (#219 overall). He’s also being taken as the fifth rookie tight end, after Tyler Eifert, Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, and Gavin Escobar. There are question marks on all of these players, and on my board, Reed’s talent and situation are second only to Eifert.

I don’t expect the Aaron Hernandez comparison to necessarily translate into similar statistics as the Patriot tight end is just a better football player and in a more tight end-friendly system. However, I expect Reed to carve out a significant role in the offense over the next two-to-three years and become a low-end TE1. Given his current ADP in startups and rookie drafts, this would translate into excellent value for a team that can afford to be patient. After Davis spends 2013 trying to stay on the field to earn a lucrative free agent contract, expect Reed to be the player to step up ahead of Paul and Paulsen.

Follow me on Twitter @jlfoster10

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Jaron Foster

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

A data analyst by profession, Jaron has been writing for DLF since 2012. Native New Englanders, Jaron and his wife are introducing their son (2010) and daughter (2014) to the Patriots. You can regularly find him on Twitter and in the DLF Forum at odd hours.

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