The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1.) What is a fair price for Rob Gronkowski at this point? I’m thinking about taking the plunge, but I don’t want to overpay or insult the owner with something unreasonable. – Verb in PA
Once synonymous with a combination of goofball behavior and elite production at the tight end position, Rob Gronkowski’s name now evokes feelings of apprehension. In a true “out of the frying pan, into the fire” scenario, Gronk finally beat a lingering infection in his forearm in late May, only to now require back surgery within the next few days. However, doctors anticipate this mid-June procedure will still leave Gronkowski on track to be ready for the start of the regular season, and agent Drew Rosenhaus has described the upcoming surgery as “minor.”
Unfortunately for Gronkowski, it’s fair to wonder if there’s more to the story. When queried about the status of his star player, New England owner Robert Craft stated, in a succinct and foreboding manner, “I wish I knew as much as you’d like me to know.” Throwing in the fact that he previously missed an entire season of college ball due to a (supposedly unrelated) back ailment, and the anxiety levels surrounding Gronk have reached an all time high.
As I stated in last week’s Mailbag, it’s impossible to accumulate statistics from the training room. This brings up a potential dilemma for Bill Belichick’s crew, who will owe Gronk a $10 million bonus following the 2015 season. If Gronkowski continues his injury plagued ways, it’s easy to see New England dumping their talented tight end, even given the massive upside he possesses.
Despite all this, the 24-year old’s ADP has stayed fairly level, as he’s still viewed as a mid-second round selection in startup drafts. In other words, though now’s a smart time to make a move, it’s unlikely you’ll be able to acquire him on the cheap. The general rule of thumb is whenever you’re acquiring a stud, you usually have to give one in return, and Gronkowski’s injury status should not have changed this. If you want to acquire Gronk’s services, you should still be prepared to offer a top young option such as Percy Harvin, Alfred Morris or Randall Cobb, or a slightly lower tier player like Victor Cruz, Aaron Hernandez or Hakeem Nicks plus a high draft pick or two.
2.) I’m starting a first year keeper league where we keep three offensive players, and am trying to figure out best way to keep them next year. Should it be the round they were drafted? The first three rounds? The last three? – White in TN
I would immediately rule out the latter two methods you suggested, because in keeper formats, there should always be a bias towards talent evaluation. Sure, we all have a rough consensus when it comes to the first few rounds, but identifying the late-round gems is what separates fantasy diehards from those with merely a passing interest. If you price everyone’s keepers the same in subsequent years, it effectively eliminates the rightful advantages earned by those who drafted extremely well for the duration of the initial draft.
However, in my opinion, valuating players in the rounds they were drafted is also an imperfect method. For example, if you took a flier on a guy like Russell Wilson in the final round of your 2012 draft, you shouldn’t be able to keep him for that price for the entirety of his career. Quality fantasy assets will appreciate in value over time, and this should be reflected in their future costs.
Therefore, I think the best system is one in which the initial keeper cost reflects the round they were drafted in, but then institutes a sliding scale in subsequent years. In other words, you can keep Wilson for that same last-round slot in your league’s second year, but the cost will jump “X” number of rounds per year each year, for as long as you want to hold onto him. To me, this represents the best combination of initial evaluation and future fairness.
3.) In my 12-team league where we start two running backs, two receivers and a FLEX, I seem to have all the ball carriers who’ve been highly ranked, but who are also currently out of favor (Ryan Mathews, Darren McFadden and Jonathan Stewart). I have an offer of Jordy Nelson for McFadden, but is Nelson worth it? Both guys seem to be hurt often. – Marc in MI
If Darren McFadden and Jordy Nelson could be summarized by a song, it would undoubtedly be the “One Shining Moment” anthem of the 2013 NCAA basketball tournament. Indeed, though both come with copious amounts of hype, they’ve each only put together one season apiece of fantasy stardom, despite being drafted way back in 2008. McFadden owners (myself included) remain convinced he possesses the same upside which led to a finish as the PPR RB2 in points per game in 2010, and owners of Nelson are hoping he can once again achieve the form that led to a PPR WR4 season in 2011.
However, as you mentioned, both have been bit hard by the injury bug in recent years. Nelson missed four games in 2012 due to recurring hamstring woes, and McFadden has still never put together a completely healthy season! Even despite this, I think I’d rather just stand pat with who you have.
Though Nelson is talented, he’s now in a four-way dogfight for targets with Randall Cobb, James Jones and Jermichael Finley. The Packers also drafted two running backs in the first four rounds (Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin), and could be poised to re-dedicate themselves to a more balanced attack. Conversely, the Raiders have basically overhauled their running game to better fit McFadden’s strengths, and he should function as options one, two and three on offense. Yes, he’ll probably miss a few games, but he’s still only going to be 26 before the season begins. To me, his combination of upside and situation clearly trumps that of Nelson, and your league format (two starting running backs) only solidifies my viewpoint.
4.) I’ve seen a lot of articles about rookie drafts, but what about when the draft is for both rookies and free agents? My 12-team league has a rule where each team has 24 players, but only 16 of them can stay in between seasons. The remaining players are tossed back in the pool along with the rookies, followed by an eight-round draft. How do I value a rookie relative to a veteran? – Kevin in MD
Given your league’s parameters, 192 players will remain rostered following the conclusion of every season. This means the players each team is getting rid of are likely going to be in the form of handcuffs, as well as those lacking a significant amount of upside. To illustrate this point, let’s consider the players from May’s ADP data who hover right around the “192” mark – DuJuan Harris, Brandon LaFell, Dustin Keller, Josh Boyce, Jonathan Baldwin and Jacoby Jones. With the exception of Baldwin, none of those players truly possesses an intriguing skill-set.
Before that point, a total of 31 rookies were already selected – this would nearly encompass three full rounds according to your league specifications. With the expectations of a stronger 2014 class, I could easily see this number increasing at this time next year. So to answer your question, I think I’d much rather gamble on the rookies’ upside, and utilize my early selections on them.
With that said, a more prudent approach might be to try and game the system a little. When you approach your league’s trade deadline, I’d attempt to take who you consider to be the best players you want to drop, and try to flip them to other owners for assets you desire. You might have to couple them with some of your “keepers,” but doing this will help you improve the overall quality of your roster, without getting rid of players who you perceive as indispensable.
Finally, here’s some bonus IDP advice courtesy of Steve Wyremski:
5.) I’m starting my first IDP league this year. My question is, since we only start three defensive players (one DL, one LB and one DB), would it be better to jump on them earlier to snag the top guys, or would I be ok if I wait until the end of the draft to fill in? My scoring is four points per sack and one point per tackle. – Jeff in NE
From a linebacker and defensive back perspective, it’s certainly a viable strategy to wait until the latter rounds to go after your IDP’s given the one starting spot for each position. There are so many linebackers and defensive backs on the field each play, leading to consistent production across a wide population. There is little differentiation between the 24th player and the top player. As we know, that’s very different from the offensive positions, so it’s important to continue to stock up on offensive talent. If you take a look at the average points per game for linebackers and defensive backs on your league site, you’re sure to see a minimal difference in those ranges given your scoring.
However, an argument could be made that from a defensive end perspective, given the relative shallowness of the position, it may be a position worthy of addressing earlier than most. A top end like JJ Watt as opposed to a lower-tier defensive end could be a lineup difference maker. However, I’m still generally inclined to suggest to still wait longer than most owners for IDP’s in start-ups. In your situation, I wouldn’t suggest waiting until DE24 is left on the board, but as long as you target a young breakout potential end a bit later like Robert Quinn, Chandler Jones, Dion Jordan, Derrick Morgan, Da’Quan Bowers, etc., I’d be comfortable with waiting on defensive end. Go for the homerun. If you strikeout, there’s sure to be a viable talent pool available on the wire this season and next given the one defensive end starting requirement.
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