2013 NFL Draft Winners and Losers: AFC South

Eric Hardter Posted On June 10, 2013

We bring our Premium members a team capsule for every team in the NFL every off-season. These quick snapshots in time give you a good assessment of where we feel the value of those players lies at the moment. Unfortunately, things change often in the NFL and in dynasty leagues. The biggest value rises or drops come as a result of the NFL Draft. Rather than leaving those capsules untouched until next year, we decided to go division-by-division with extended coverage of veteran winners and losers from the off-season. Many values have stayed the same, so an entire team capsule would be redundant. However, these articles will cover some key draft additions that have a huge impact in dynasty leagues one way or another.

We continue our journey through the NFL with the AFC South.

Houston Texans

Pick #27 – DeAndre Hopkins, WR

Pick #57 – DJ Swearinger, FS

Pick #89 – Brennan Williams, OT

Pick #95 – Sam Montgomery, LB

Pick #124 – Trevardo Williams, LB

Pick #176 – David Quessenberry, OT

Pick #195 – Alan Bonner, WR

Pick #198 – Chris Jones, DT

Pick #201 – Ryan Griffin, TE

Winners

Matt Schaub

In 2011, the Texans led the NFL in rushing attempts, running the ball on 53.9% of their offensive plays. Despite a slight drop-off to “only” 47.8% last year, they still managed to attempt the fourth-most running plays in the league. While a large part of this has been due to the brilliance of bell-cow Arian Foster, quarterback Matt Schaub just hasn’t had any reliable targets over the years other than receiver Andre Johnson and tight end Owen Daniels. Fortunately, this has finally been rectified with the selection of first round rookie DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins affords a credible threat at the WR2 position, and even though it’s unlikely Schaub will replicate his 2009 glory (4,700+ yards and 29 touchdowns), a potentially diversified offense has his arrow pointing up.

Andre Johnson

Yes, Hopkins’ arrival likely means Johnson will struggle to replicate the 10.3 targets per game he received in 2012. However, this could very well be a case of addition by subtraction, as he’ll no longer be the single focus of opposing secondaries. Johnson has always caught a large percentage of his targets (64.5% for his career), and this efficiency could possibly improve with softer coverage.

Losers

DeVier Posey, Keshawn Martin and Lestar Jean

Despite a season’s worth of chances, none of these three receivers managed to step up and take control of the second starting receiver position. Though Posey showed flashes in 2012, he tore his Achilles’ tendon in a playoff clash with the Patriots, and is a lock to start the season on the PUP list. Just by virtue of showing up to training camp, Hopkins will have easily eclipsed the trio listed above.

Owen Daniels

Hopkins’ arrival should theoretically push him to third on the pecking order in the passing game. When healthy, Daniels should still produce low-end TE1 numbers, but 2012’s finish as the overall TE9 might be hard to top.

Ben Tate

Even though the Texans didn’t draft any running backs, they signed a plethora of ball carriers to undrafted free agent contracts. This list includes the likes of Cierre Wood, Ray Graham and Dennis Johnson. Tate should expect competition for backup duties behind Foster, which is an unenviable proposition for a contract-year player coming off a poor 2012 campaign.

Indianapolis Colts

Pick #24 – Bjorn Werner, DE

Pick #86 – Hugh Thornton, G

Pick #121 – Khaled Holmes, C

Pick #139 – Montori Hughes, DT

Pick #192 – John Boyett, S

Pick #230 – Kerwynn Williams, RB

Pick #254 – Justice Cunningham, TE

Winners

Vick Ballard

Despite an underwhelming rookie season where Ballard averaged 3.9 yards per carry, the Colts neglected to draft a running back until the final round. Even if Ballard fails to improve on a per-play basis, he should receive the highest usage out of the entire Colts’ ball carrying corps.

Andrew Luck

Luck functioned as a QB1 as a rookie, but this was due more to volume than efficiency. Former coach Bruce Arians preferred a downfield, attacking style of offense, and Luck’s completion percentage suffered as a result. New offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton will likely re-introduce the short passing game, and Indy also improved their receiving corps with the addition of free agent Darrius Heyward-Bey. The Colts’ choosing to use two of their first three picks on offensive linemen is the cherry on top.

LaVon Brazill

Brazill was likely going to function as a backup in 2013, and the addition of Heyward-Bey shouldn’t change that. More importantly, it should be taken as a sign of faith that Indianapolis didn’t add any pass catchers in the draft.

Losers

Donald Brown and Delone Carter

While seventh rounder Kerwynn Williams is likely no threat to Ballard’s starting job, he could push for backup duties. Neither Brown nor Carter has shown enough in their respective careers for them to be assured of any kind of meaningful playing time.

TY Hilton

Unlike Brazill above, Hilton will indeed feel the immediate effects of the Heyward-Bey signing. After a strong rookie season, it was expected Hilton would be a lock to start opposite Reggie Wayne, but rumors out of Indianapolis currently have DHB on top. Hilton’s 17.2 yards per catch (#5 in the league in 2012) could also suffer with a shift to a West Coast philosophy.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick #2 – Luke Joeckel, OT

Pick #33 – Johnathan Cyprien, S

Pick #64 – Dwayne Gratz, CB

Pick #101 – Ace Sanders, WR

Pick #135 – Denard Robinson, RB

Pick #169 – Josh Evans, S

Pick #208 – Jeremy Harris, CB

Pick #210 – Demetrius McCray, CB

Winners

Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne

When the Jaguars passed on Geno Smith (not once but twice), it’s more than likely both Gabbert and Henne breathed huge sighs of relief. Bookending stout left tackle Eugene Monroe with #2 overall pick Luke Joeckel undoubtedly made the smiles on their faces grow even larger. This year looms large as a make or break season for the Jaguars’ passing game, but Jacksonville’s front office is giving them every chance to succeed.

Maurice Jones-Drew

Coming off a season that started with an ugly contract dispute and ended with a Lisfranc foot injury, it’s encouraging for MJD that the Jaguars didn’t draft any direction competition for him. With a big year in 2013, Jones-Drew could put himself in line for one last lucrative payday.

Marcedes Lewis

Echoing the above comments regarding Jones-Drew, Lewis is also in prime position to rebound from a subpar 2012 season. The new coaching staff is reportedly high on him, and chose not to select a tight end in a relatively deep draft.

Losers

Justin Forsett

While there is still some question as to where rookie Swiss-Army knife Denard Robinson will line up, he’s currently listed as a running back. Though Forsett has been effective when given the chance, Robinson has legitimate game-breaking ability and versatility.

Justin Blackmon

Simply put, Blackmon dropped the ball this off-season. He has a new coaching staff to impress and still needs to form a stronger rapport with whoever wins the job under center, but a four-game suspension has torpedoed all that. Don’t be surprised if Blackmon is playing catch-up (instead of just catch) for a good chunk of the season.

Tennessee Titans

Pick #10 – Chance Warmack, G

Pick #34 – Justin Hunter, WR

Pick #70 – Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB

Pick #97 – Zaviar Gooden, LB

Pick #107 – Brian Schwenke, C

Pick #142 – Lavar Edwards, DE

Pick #202 – Khalid Wooten, CB

Pick #248 – Daimion Stafford, S

Winners

Jake Locker

Despite winning the starting job last off-season, Locker was unable to capitalize on the momentum from a 2011 rookie campaign that saw the young signal caller perform well when called upon. Though his top targets included a gimpy Kenny Britt, a rookie Kendall Wright and an underutilized Jared Cook, Locker still displayed scattershot accuracy that would make Tim Tebow cringe. Fortunately, the Titans offered help in the form of their first two draft picks: mauling guard Chance Warmack and speedy outside threat Justin Hunter. Much like with Gabbert above, 2013 will be a make or break season for Locker.

Losers

Kenny Britt

Though Hunter may very well have been a “best player available” type of pick, his selection is also a direct message to Britt that means it’s time to shape up or ship out. Plagued by injuries and immaturity since he entered the league in 2009, Britt now finds himself in the position of needing to perform in a contract year. Still only 24 years old, the volatile Titans 2013 season could go a long way towards establishing his long-term NFL viability.

Chris Johnson

The upgrades along the offensive line, including the afore-mentioned Warmack as well as free agent signing Andy Levitre, should help a Tennessee run game that stagnated at times in 2012. With that said, it’s another free agent signing that could serve to weaken Johnson’s future outlook – running back Shonn Greene. No, Greene could never be confused with a dynamic ball carrier during his time in New York, but he’s still an upgrade over Titans backups of years past. More importantly, he’s been a short-yardage maven during his career, and will more than likely siphon away goal line carries. Unfortunately for CJ2K, all the speed in the world won’t help him if he’s stuck on the bench during scoring opportunities.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

Author
Recent Posts

Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.