The Next Big Thing

Let’s start with a quick history lesson. After a good career with NC State, Russell Wilson transferred to Wisconsin for his senior year. Teaming up with Montee Ball, Wilson tore up the NCAA, leading the Badgers to the Rose Bowl. Going into the draft, Russell had nearly everything GMs wanted in a quarterback, with one major exception – height. After all, Wilson stands only 5’10”. As a result, he lasted until the third round (#75 overall), where the Seattle Seahawks picked him. He won the resulting camp battle, and proceeded to lead the Seahawks to the Divisional Round, where he almost brought them all the way back from a 24-0 deficit against the Atlanta Falcons. Along the way, he tied Peyton Manning’s rookie record for touchdown passes. Now, entering his second season, I believe he represents the best quarterback value in dynasty leagues.

A more in-depth study of his rookie season reveals why I feel this way. Depending on league settings, he finished around QB10 overall, which is pretty good for a rookie. Splitting his season into two reveals his season as a tale of two halves. The Seahawks had a Thursday night game week seven, so they had more time to prepare for week right. Let’s look at splits before and after Week 7.

Through week seven (seven games):

• 104-of-175 passing  (59.4% completion rate)
• 1,230 passing yards (175.7 yards per game, 7.03 yards per attempt)
• Eight passing touchdowns
• Seven interceptions
• 79.5 passer rating
• 35 carries for 110 rushing yards (17 yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry)

Those numbers are good for a rookie quarterback, but not really worthy of fantasy stardom.

After Week Seven (11 games)

• 187-of-280 passing (66.8% completion rate)
• 2,460 passing yards (223.6 yards per game, 8.79 yards per attempt)
• 21 passing touchdowns
• Four interceptions
• 113.4 passer rating
• 79 carries for 497 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns (45.2 yards per game on 6.7 yards per carry)

Those are some amazing splits. Wilson made a huge improvement in every single category. There were several factors that led to this. Some of it was Head Coach Pete Carroll opening up the offense, thus putting more trust in Wilson and adding in some read-option to spice the offense up. And some of it was simply due to Wilson getting better and gelling with his wide receivers and offensive line more as the season went on.

As I mentioned earlier, Wilson finished as the QB10 or QB11 overall. However, when we look at his stats from week seven to the end of the season, we find he ranked as QB3. For half his rookie season, he was the #3 fantasy signal caller in all of fantasy football. And Wilson could have scored even more, if not for the Seahawks blowing out four of their opponents after week seven and Wilson being either pulled early or throwing very few passes.

A large part of Wilson’s success was due to his ridiculous efficiency as well. According to PFF, he ranked #4 in points per drop back. He also attempted only 393 passes on the entire season. For comparison, the rest of the top ten quarterbacks (when combining Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick) averaged 535 passes. Matt Stafford, whom Wilson outscored, attempted an insane 727 passes – almost twice as many as Wilson.

This offseason, Seattle traded for Percy Harvin, one of the most dynamic receivers in the entire league. He should be an enormous boon to Wilson. The Seahwaks also continued to build around Wilson, drafting Christine Michael and Chris Harper – two of the most explosive options at their respective positions in the draft. Wilson, according to all accounts, is a player who will work hard throughout the off-season to get better, even more than the typical NFL player. Pete Carroll should be confident in opening up the offense even further with the addition of Harvin and Wilson’s continued growth.

Finally, there is the matter of value. According to Ryan McDowell’s invaluable ADP data, Wilson is being drafted as the QB9, at #60 overall (5.12 in 12 team leagues). This means that as your leaguemates are picking quarterbacks, you can load up on wide receivers and running backs. I believe Wilson will be a top seven quarterback in the 2013 season. At only 24 years old, he currently represents a major value in dynasty leagues right now.

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