Historical Rookie Trends: Running Back vs. Wide Receiver

Brian Bulmer

mark_ingramThe 2013 rookie class has long been regarded as a weak one. When looking at this class, there are few players who fantasy owners would call “elite.” With a class so short on that type of talent, which players do you choose? This class has some dynamic play makers like Tavon Austin, but also contains some less “sexy” names like Montee Ball. In short, this is a difficult rookie dynasty draft to pinpoint “the guy.”

The rookie draft pick you have may become obvious if you personally find value in a specific player. However, what if you’re choosing between a wide receiver and running back and they’re closely ranked in terms of your perceived value? What if you’re trying to build depth at running back and wide receiver and trying to identify the one player who could put in work for the next decade? Do you take Johnathan Franklin or Markus Wheaton? Do you take Giovani Bernard or Austin? These are the questions dynasty owners want answers to. I took a look at the historical data on running backs and wide receivers to help you decide what may be best for your team.

NFL Rookie Running Backs (2000-2002)

The offenses in the early 2000’s were run heavy and many teams were confident with a single back carrying the load. Fantasy football drafts were full of running backs getting the majority of the carries. When looking at running backs in those years taken in the first and second round of drafts, it’s easy to see fantasy championships were won by picking the right one.

The 2000 draft included fantasy backs who led teams to fantasy championships including Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones and Shaun Alexander. The 2001 class may have been better with LaDainian Tomlinson, Anthony Thomas, and Deuce McAllister. The 2002 class only included one fantasy superstar in the first two rounds and that was Clinton Portis. All these running backs were notable first rounders in fantasy leagues for the better part of the decade.

When I compiled relative information about running backs, I looked at the historical trends of the position. I used data from rookie backs drafted in 2000-2002 and compiled career statistics of those players in an era in which running the ball was “king” in fantasy football.

Rookie Running Back Data from 2000-2002

Running Backs

2000

2001

2002

Averages

Avg. Years

8.6

9

7.7

8.43

Avg. FP/Season

149.58

142.6

107

133.06

% 1000 YD Seasons

37

35

15

29%

The data in the table shows the average life span of a running back taken in the first or second round in their career was 8.43 years. The average fantasy point production per season based on PPR scoring was 133.06 points per season. During that same span, 29% of the players had 1,000 yard seasons – this tells us running backs were having big years and those lasted for quite some time.

NFL Rookie Wide Receivers (2000-2002)

During the early 2000’s there were many solid rookie wide receivers drafted including a few active players.  In 2000, the top rookie wide receiver selection was Plaxico Burress. The year 2001 contained some notable fantasy wide receivers including Santana Moss, Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson, and Chris Chambers. In 2002, the class had Donte Stallworth, Deion Branch, and Jabar Gaffney. These players represent a list of many wide receivers who were solid selections in fantasy football drafts. More notable is many elite wide receivers are still playing currently in the NFL while many of the elite running backs are not. I pulled the data of these players to compare the running backs to the wide receivers from 2000 -2002.

Rookie Wide Receiver Data from 2000-2002

Wide Receivers

2000

2001

2002

Averages

Avg. Years

7.1

8.6

8.8

8.17

Avg. FP/Season

103.9

121

96

106.97

% 1000 YD Seasons

8

26

6

13.33%

The data in the table shows the average life span of a wide receiver taken in the first or second round in their career was 8.17 years. The average fantasy point production per season based on PPR scoring was 106.97 points per season. During that same span, 13.33% of the players had 1,000 yard seasons.

I use this data to show what happened in the NFL in the early 2000’s. The run heavy trends of the early 2000’s made running backs the favorable option in all fantasy football drafts in early rounds. Now we skip ahead to the late 2000’s and try to gain some more perspective in the evolution of the NFL offense.

NFL Rookie Running Backs (2009-2011)

The trend started to shift in 2009 when teams used the new NFL rules to their advantage and started throwing the football all over the field. This also forced to teams to find a single pass catching back who could handle the majority of the work or go to a running back by committee (RBBC). The RBBC would have a power back and finesse back and in most cases one of them is the short yardage back while the other is the primary pass catcher. This made it tougher for fantasy football owners to draft a running back early unless they were able to get the “stud.”

The top running backs from the 2009 NFL Draft included Knowshon Moreno, Beanie Wells, Donald Brown and LeSean McCoy. McCoy is the current superstar of the group, while the others have been cut or fell on the depth chart. The 2010 rookie running back class contained a little more star power with CJ Spiller, Ryan Mathews, and Jahvid Best. Of this group, Spiller has emerged to be a top five draft pick to some. Mathews has been injured and is yet to complete a 16 game season. Jahvid Best has not been cleared to return to football activities due to post-concussion syndrome. The 2011 class had five running backs taken in the first two rounds, led by the only first rounder in the form of Mark Ingram. Ingram has yet to make his mark in the NFL due to a crowded backfield in New Orleans. Ryan Williams is a talented running back, but has been injured and has yet to complete six games in a single season. The last standout of the group is Mikel Leshoure, who has only finished one NFL season.

NFL Rookie Running Backs (2009-2011)

Running Backs

2009

2010

2011

Averages

Avg. FP/Season

147.625

117.8

88

117.81

% 1000 YD Seasons

19

11

0

10.00

The high point in 2009 is very comparable to the running backs in 2000 – this information indicates to us the running game was prevalent for young running backs coming into the league in 2009. It also shows the lack of emphasis put on the running back position and the immediate impact rookie running backs had on their respective teams. The number of 1,000 yard seasons has been reduced dramatically since the 2000 season as well.

NFL Rookie Wide Receivers (2009-2011)

The fantasy landscape has changed in the same ways the NFL has. The focus of offenses are more pass happy than ever. Some offenses maintain a running mentality, but the NFL has quickly become a passing league. With the surplus of talent surfacing in the last few years at the wide receiver position, it’s no secret there has been a shift to pass happier offenses. Some wide receivers taken in 2009 include Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin and Hakeem Nicks. The 2010 draft included two players who really emerged last season in Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas. The 2011 draft (which is arguably the most talented with elite players) included A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, and Torrey Smith.

NFL Rookie Wide Receivers (2009-2011)

Wide Receivers

2009

2010

2011

Averages

Avg. FP/Season

139.25

133

174.3

148.85

% 1000 YD Seasons

9

17

21

15.67

The trends show more fantasy production than ever coming from the wide receiver position. Even the rookies from the 2000-2002 draft never exceeded 133 fantasy points on average in a career. The 148 fantasy points per game average from the 2009-2011 seasons exceed the draft average from the running backs in 2000-2002.

Analysis of Data

rb_wr_chart

The chart indicates fantasy point production from ALL rookie running backs versus wide receivers from the years 2000-2002 and 2009-2011. This compiled all relative data from the entire careers of the early participants versus the early careers of current players. The chart plainly shows the majority of fantasy production has shifted to wide receivers. The real question is if the emphasis in the NFL to a pass heavy offense is large enough to shift the thinking in a fantasy football draft.

How should this change the way I draft?

Rule changes have favored the offense over the last five years and there is an obvious shift as teams are going to more of a pass heavy approach. The additional helmet rule on running backs is something else to consider when drafting those who like to initiate contact. At some points in rookie or start-up drafts, it can be difficult to decide on a rookie running back or a rookie wide receiver who have the same potential going into the season.

The shift to more of a RBBC approach has made it more difficult to determine who the top option is in many backfields. Last season alone, 11 running backs took 70% or more of their team snaps, while 56 wide receivers took more than 70%. Also in the 2012 season, nine wide receivers scored double digit touchdowns while nine running backs did the same. When looking at the 1,000 yard club from the 2012 season, 16 running backs broke the 1,000 yard mark while 19 wide receivers did the same.

This article may not change your mindset or approach to your specific draft due to your current team needs. If you need a running back, there is plenty of talent with opportunities on their respective teams. Running backs like Le’Veon Bell in Pittsburgh appear to have the clear cut edge while players like Ball, Giovani Bernard, Eddie Lacy and Franklin will all have to fight for the “lead” back position on their team. It is important to try to identify who may have the most long term value in a pass heavy league – the running backs who can catch and continue to be used even when the game is out of reach.

When evaluating the wide receivers in the class, Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson, Robert Woods and Aaron Dobson all appear to have a starting spot locked up when looking at team depth charts. These are the players who may have a legitimate chance to score fantasy points right away and impact their respective NFL teams. Justin Hunter is another name to mention, but Kendall Wright and Kenny Britt are sitting ahead of him as the projected starters. When choosing a wide receiver it is important to monitor the quarterback position. If the team has a strong quarterback, they have a great chance of scoring points. The exception in this case may be Dobson as New England has favored tight ends over wide receivers in the last couple of seasons.

The last piece of data to note is the length of a player’s career in the NFL. It is important to note in the early 2000’s the running backs had longer careers on average than the wide receivers. The data is showing all first and second round running back selections in the 2000-2002 draft had longer careers on average than the wide receivers during that same time period. Using the argument to take a wide receiver over a running back due to longer careers is somewhat presumptuous. Many players in both positions are lost due to injury or off the field concerns. As fantasy owners, we have no control over that. When comparing the data from 2000-2002, 53% of the running backs selected in the first or second round played nine years or more in the NFL compared to 44% of the wide receivers.

Using this data, I would suggest to any dynasty owner to evaluate the needs of your team before making a decision. The obvious historical trends point to wide receivers gaining an edge in fantasy production over the last few years. However, during those years there was lack of elite talent at the running back position. The emergence of current rookies like Trent Richardson and Doug Martin last season show the shift may not be as sudden as it was in previous years.

Taking an “elite” player at either position is a no brainer in fantasy football. If you have an opportunity to get a talented player who may play for years, the choice is very simple. When choosing between two young talents who are considered equal, you might consider the direction the NFL is heading before making your decision.

brian bulmer
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