Over/Under: Larry Fitzgerald
Welcome to another installment of “Over/Under” where I highlight a player and determine some projections based on past tendencies and then state whether I think they will go “over or under” those projections. The criteria will be different for each player based on position and situation.
Today we’re going to talk about the Arizona Cardinals All-Pro wide receiver, Larry Fitzgerald. We will put his line at 85 receptions, 1,200 yards, and 8.5 touchdowns.
Larry Fitzgerald has long been called “quarterback proof,” producing WR1 numbers with the likes of Josh McCown, Matt Leinart, Derek Anderson, John Skelton, Max Hall, Kevin Kolb, and Ryan Lindley at the helm. Looking at his career stats, it’s hard to argue.
That all came to a screeching halt last season. Evidently, the craptastic mixture of Kolb, Skelton, Brian Hoyer, and Lindley was enough mediocrity to hold Fitzgerald down and finish with his lowest numbers since his rookie season – 71 receptions, 798 yards and just four touchdowns. Throughout his illustrious and downright dominant career, Fitzgerald has averaged 84.7 catches, 1,156.4 yards, and 8.5 touchdowns per year. That is pretty much right where we have our betting line.
The 2012 Arizona Cardinals were a hot mess on offense, ranking 32nd in 2012 (last in the league). If not for their #12 ranked defense, the Cardinals would have probably ended up with the first pick in the draft. Nothing went right – they ended up starting a street free agent at quarterback (Hoyer) in a desperation move, then turned to their third down scat back (La’Rod Stephens-Howling) at running back after injuries took down both Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams.
When the season finally ended, so did the Ken Whisenhunt era in the desert. He was replaced with first time Head Coach and the 2012 NFL Coach of the Year, Bruce Arians. Arians, 60, led the Colts to a 9-3 record while filling in for Chuck Pagano, who battled cancer last year. Arians has long been respected for his ability to produce attacking offense in the NFL. He was Peyton Manning’s quarterback coach from his rookie year through the year 2000. After that he was the offensive coordinator for the Cleveland Browns from 2001-2003, helping get them into the playoffs. From 2004-2011 he spent time with the Pittsburgh Steelers as both a wide receivers coach and then as offensive coordinator. In fact, Ben Roethlisberger credits much of his success to Arians.
Now, he takes on his first official head coaching gig and has a ton of weapons at his disposal. Arians wasted no time bringing in the type of guys he needed to run his offense. The Cardinals went out and traded for Carson Palmer from the Raiders, getting him for pennies on the dollar compared to the two first round picks the Raiders gave the Bengals two short years ago. Then, he brought in a familiar face to boost the running game by signing former Steeler Rashard Mendenhall. The Cardinals also added a couple of runners in this year’s draft in Stanford’s Stepfan Taylor and Andre Ellington of Clemson.
So, what does all this mean for Larry Fitzgerald? Everything! Fitzgerald has been the lone playmaker in Arizona since Kurt Warner retired and Anquan Boldin left for Baltimore. When you add Carson Palmer and Mendenhall to this year’s draft class and the other young talent the Cardinals have in Michael Floyd, Andre Roberts and Robert Housler, the tide might finally be turning for suffering Cardinals fans.
Most people don’t look at Carson Palmer as an exciting fantasy quarterback anymore, but he was more than serviceable last year with far inferior talent in Oakland. For most of the year, Palmer was a low end QB1 before finishing the year as the QB17. He did it with the like of Denarius Moore (WR32) and Darius Heyward-Bey (WR50) at wide receiver and an afterthought at tight end in Brandon Meyers (who he subsequently) turned into the TE10 in PPR leagues. Now 33 years old, Palmer’s arm has shown recovered strength and the old man appears quite spry. Palmer was able to deliver the ball downfield on deep passes, but his young wide receivers often times just couldn’t win the battles – he won’t have that problem with the Cardinals. He’s a great stop gap for Arians’ offense until he can find a “young gun” to pass the torch to.
With Michael Floyd closing out the 2012 season with a very impressive eight catch, 166 yard, one touchdown game against the San Francisco 49ers and rave reviews coming out of OTAs, Floyd should take the next step to becoming an impact player in both real life football and the more important fantasy world. Any attention given to Floyd will only open things up for Fitzgerald. Also drawing attention away from Fitzgerald and Floyd is DLF favorite, Rob Housler. Housler is an exciting third year prospect just begging for an opportunity and a quarterback. At 6’5” and 250 pounds, he is built much like Saints tight end Jimmy Graham.
If that wasn’t enough, look at the way Coach Arians used Reggie Wayne in Indianapolis last season. Wayne was moved all over the formation, often lining up in the slot to get one on one opportunities and to get the ball in space. Wayne was reborn and finished the year as the WR8 in PPR leagues with 106 catches for 1,355 yards and five touchdowns. Expect a lot of the same with Fitzgerald.
Dealing with the secondaries of the NFC West isn’t going to be a walk in the park. Each team has rock solid tandem of corners, San Francisco with Nnamdi Asomugha and Carlos Rogers, St. Louis with Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins and Seattle with Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner. This division has quickly become a “black and blue” division of elite defenses from top to bottom, Arizona included.
I’m buying Larry Fitzgerald in all types of leagues, dynasty and redraft. I think last year was most definitely the exception and not the rule. A player with that much raw talent and history as a big time performer should get at least one free pass. The addition of Arians and Palmer will thrust Fitzgerald back into the top six wide receivers. I think he will easily surpass this line. Palmer’s willingness to let his receivers “go get it” plays to strengths of both Fitzgerald and Floyd. Outside of Detroit and Calvin Johnson, there isn’t a better jump baller in the league than Larry Fitzgerald.
If there are any Fitzgerald owners in your league dragging their feet buying into Palmer and the Arizona offensive line, go get Fitzgerald right now. He isn’t going to be cheap, but he’s most likely the cheapest he’s ever been. He is the exact definition of a “buy low.”
I expect Fitzgerald to finish 2013 with nearly 100 catches, 1,300+ yards and double digit touchdowns. If he can finish with 71/798/4 with the quarterbacks and coaches he had last year, those numbers should be a breeze with the upgraded surroundings.
What are your thoughts? Are you taking the “Over or Under” on Larry Fitzgerald hitting 85 receptions, 1200 yards, and 8.5 touchdowns? Let me know in the comments section below.
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