2012 Quarterback Efficiency Rankings: Part Two

Eric Hardter Posted On May 28, 2013

In Part One of the efficiency rankings, I derived the formula for the points per passing attempt (PPA) metric and also explained its importance. I then calculated and provided PPA statistics for the top 35 fantasy quarterbacks in 2012. Finally, I listed the comparative differences between each player’s PPA rank and their 2012 fantasy finish.

To that last point, the differential between the two sets of data can tell us a little bit about future expectations. Was the quarterback’s ranking influenced by the number of passes he threw? Was a low efficiency mitigated by passing volume, or vice versa? Did anything happen in the off-season that could lead to a change in either usage or effectiveness?

The following will answer these questions on a player by player basis, and group them into three distinct categories: those who are likely to improve, those who are likely to perform similarly, and those who are likely to regress.

Let’s start with the signal callers who should expect a better 2013.

Likely to Improve

Aaron Rodgers, QB GB

Though it’s true Rodgers set a career high for attempts, his attempts per game were in line with previous seasons. A lack of a run game made the Packers’ offense one-dimensional in 2012, but the additions of rookies Eddie Lacy and Jonathan Franklin should fix that. With his immense stable of pass catchers fully healthy, expect Rodgers to once again challenge for the title of overall QB1.

Russell Wilson, QB SEA

Simply put, Wilson is primed to explode in 2013. His passing efficiency was second best in the league, and he did it all on a lowly 393 attempts – not to mention he did all this as a rookie. The addition of Percy Harvin combined with a likely increase in pass attempts has Wilson’s arrow pointing way up.

Peyton Manning, QB DEN

Seeing Manning in the top three of the efficiency rankings is no surprise. With the addition of slot machine Wes Welker and recent draftee Montee Ball filling a void in the backfield, Manning should be even better in 2013. If the Broncos establish the three-wide set as their base offense, his passing attempts could increase as well.

Alex Smith, QB KC

I knew Jim Harbaugh did wonders for Smith’s game, but a top-five efficiency rating is extremely impressive. However, as a 49er, Smith never threw more than 445 passes in any given season. Conversely, in 2012, current Chiefs’ coach Andy Reid had his Eagles’ signal callers air it out 618 times. If Reid can combine his love for passing with a reasonable facsimile of how Harbaugh utilized Smith, expect a bump in rankings.

Robert Griffin III, QB WASH

Though it’s fair to wonder if a torn ACL will mitigate the threat of RGIII running, he was still the sixth most efficient quarterback, despite missing top threats Pierre Garcon and Fred Davis for the majority of the season. If he returns healthy, and all his weapons remain free of injury, expect Griffin to improve upon the 394 passing attempts he attempted in 2012.

Colin Kaepernick, QB SF

See Wilson, Russell and Griffin III, Robert. As a first-year starter in 2012, Kaepernick exceeded expectations and performed as the seventh most efficient quarterback. As the aforementioned Harbaugh has now worked wonders with both Smith and Kaepernick, it’s reasonable to expect even more improvement next year.

Eli Manning, QB NYG

In a down-year that saw Manning submit his lowest completion percentage since 2007 and lowest passing yardage since 2008, he still barely missed a top-ten efficiency ranking. With a fully healthy Hakeem Nicks and improved Rueben Randle, Manning should find his way back into the QB1 tier in 2013.

Andy Dalton, QB CIN

Despite only throwing 12 more passes than in 2011, the “Red Rifle” improved his numbers across the board. His third year will see the return of superstar receiver AJ Green, and likely improvement of sophomores Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones. First round tight end Tyler Eifert can only help.

Philip Rivers, QB SD and Jay Cutler, QB CHI

Both Rivers and Cutler had down years wrecked by poor offensive line play, as well as a lack of creativity on offense. Despite that, they were each more efficient than given credit for. With new coaches and new weapons, both could be sneaky bets to function as low-end QB1’s or high-end QB2’s.

Kevin Kolb, QB BUF

He’ll never be confused for a stud signal caller. However, Buffalo’s offensive line is better than Arizona’s, and the Bills invested heavily in offensive skill players in the draft. He likely still won’t be fantasy relevant, but could be better than advertised.

Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA

Tannehill was throwing to arguably the league’s worst collection of receivers in 2012. This is purely a speculative bet, but the signings of Mike Wallace, Brandon Gibson and Dustin Keller should breathe life into a sometimes stagnant passing game, and Tannehill will likely attempt more than 484 passes in 2013.

Likely to Perform Similarly

Drew Brees, QB NO

Simply put, Brees is a machine. While he gets head coach Sean Payton back, it’s tough to expect Brees to improve upon his league-leading 437.4 fantasy points in 2013.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB PITT

Though Big Ben missed three games in 2012, he was still a highly efficient signal caller. Yes, the numbers scream “improvement,” but it’ll be tough due to the defection of Wallace to the Dolphins.

Matt Ryan, QB ATL

In 2012, Ryan bested his previous high in pass attempts by 44. Though this change coincided with the arrival of new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, Ryan would need to replicate both the volume and a top-ten efficiency. It’s not out of the realm of possibility, but owners shouldn’t necessarily count on it.

Josh Freeman, QB TB

He was more efficient than given credit for, but Freeman seriously tailed off towards the end of last season. Expect the passing attempts to stay the same, but the Bucs’ signal caller hasn’t shown the type of improvement to expect a forthcoming breakout.

Cam Newton, QB CAR

Though his passing attempts were reduced in 2012, Newton nonetheless saw dips in completion percentage, yards and touchdowns. Simply put, he didn’t progress, he regressed. With no change to the Panthers’ skill position players, expect a similar stagnation in 2013.

Matt Schaub, QB HOU

Bottom line, the Texans are a running team. They like to build a lead and then pound the ball down their opponents’ throats. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins helps, but Schaub is the definition of a game manager.

Carson Palmer, QB ARI

Arizona has better skill position players than Oakland, but also a worse offensive line. Under new coach Bruce Arians, Palmer could very well replicate the 38 passing attempts he received per game in 2012, but there are no guarantees.

Andrew Luck, QB IND

His lack of efficiency seems surprising until you remember the previously mentioned Arians preferred a downfield passing game. New coordinator Pep Hamilton’s West Coast offense should yield a higher completion percentage, but likely come at the expense of passing attempts. Nevertheless, an improvement for the Colts’ offense is expected across the board, so Luck will probably tread water.

Sam Bradford, QB STL

Bradford is basically Ryan Tannehill with a few more years of experience. His poor efficiency should be aided by an increase in offensive talent, but it’s “put up or shut up” time for the Rams’ former number one overall pick.

Jake Locker, QB TEN and Christian Ponder, QB MIN

Here are a couple of third-year signal callers whose poor efficiency is matched only by their poor fantasy output. Other than a theoretical natural progression, there’s no reason to expect meaningful improvement.

Brandon Weeden, QB CLE and Blaine Gabbert, QB JAX

It’s not a compliment that they’re not being placed in the next category. Simply put, this is an acknowledgement of the likely fact this pair of first round picks will bust.

Likely to Regress

Tom Brady, QB NE

Considering he was the third ranked quarterback in 2012, Brady was shockingly (relatively) inefficient. Part of this was due to a decrease in completion percentage, despite a career high in passing attempts. With regards to that last point, the 637 attempts he received in 2012 are significantly higher than the average of 577 he’s received in the years Josh McDaniels functioned as the offensive coordinator. It’s hard to bet against Brady, but an expectant drop in usage, coupled with the loss of Welker, makes it tough to predict anything but a regression.

Tony Romo, QB DAL

This one is pretty simple. Romo exceeded his previous high in passing attempts by 98 in 2012! Unless this is becoming the new normal in Dallas, Romo needs to improve upon his middling efficiency rank to remain a top-tier option.

Joe Flacco, QB BAL

In short, he’s the definition of Mr. Consistent. However, he’s losing his leading receiver in Anquan Boldin, so a slight drop-off seems likely.

Michael Vick, QB PHI

Vick is a tough one to judge. On one hand, he stands to benefit from coach Chip Kelly’s (likely) dynamic new system. On the other hand, said system is likely to be one that is run-heavy. As he ages and loses the threat of running, his scattershot accuracy becomes more apparent. His best years are still likely behind him.

Matt Stafford, QB DET

Stafford set an NFL league record with 727 passing attempts in 2012. Unfortunately, due to his horrendously inefficient play (#29 out of 35), he only finished as the tenth best fantasy quarterback. Though the addition of Reggie Bush should aid in the short passing game, it’s tough to imagine Stafford receiving similar opportunities in 2013. He needs to make the most of the ones he gets.

Mark Sanchez, QB NYJ and Chad Henne, QB JAX

Two quarterbacks who just haven’t shown enough in their careers to expect any type of statistical improvement. Even when they receive opportunities, they’re too inefficient to take advantage of it.

Nick Foles, QB PHI

I don’t blame his 2012 struggles on his skill level. The Eagles phoned in the latter portion of the season and Foles didn’t have top threat DeSean Jackson for the season’s final five games. However, even with that said, he’s not expected to see significant action in 2013.

Matt Cassel, QB MIN and Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB TENN

If Christian Ponder and Jake Locker struggle, these two might get their opportunities. Otherwise, they’re waiver wire fodder.

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.