Playing it Safe: DeAndre Hopkins

Mark Rockwell

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Everybody knows someone who is over protective.  Whether it’s your parents, a friend’s parents or your friends who are parents, we all know people who live in a perpetual state of terror.  They’ll go to the ends of the earth to protect those they care about from every possible type of pain.  For instance, most of us have seen a five-year-old in a baby pool with a life jacket and “floaties” on or the 16-year-old whose mother won’t let him ride a bike without a helmet, knee pads, elbow pads and gloves.

I assume everyone’s mother did this, but I remember riding shotgun in the car when my mom was driving.  Of course we had our seatbelts on, but with any signs of danger on the road she would instinctively reach across with her hand and put it on my chest.  Obviously, in the event of an accident it wouldn’t have helped, but it was her way of protecting me.  In the very slim possibility my mother reads this I should add – she was the world’s best mother and not over protective in the least.

Some people go overboard, but there is something to be said for a sense of security and having a little bit of control.  While some fantasy players like to go for the next big thing (the high risk/high reward type), others like to go with the sure thing, even if that means leaving a little upside on the table.  The 2013 draft class doesn’t have many players for those in the latter group, but there is one player that sticks out to me as “safe.”

There are plenty of upside plays in this draft including Cordarrelle Patterson, Tavon Austin, and Christine Michael.  Le’Veon Bell and Montee Ball had nice landing spots, but some have questions about their athletic ability and longevity.  Eddie Lacy potentially faces a timeshare with fellow rookie Jonathan Franklin.  Bengals coaches have suggested that Giovani Bernard will be used as a change of pace back for the time being.  That leaves one highly touted early pick – DeAndre Hopkins.

Here’s why I think Hopkins is the safest pick in the 2013 class:

A Great Landing Spot

The Texans offense has been built around Arian Foster over the last three seasons and for good reason.  His emergence turned them into a perennial contender and his skill set is an ideal fit for the zone blocking scheme.  Now, after just three years as the lead back, there’s talk of his decline.  Perhaps that talk is a bit premature, but the lack of a receiving threat outside of Andre Johnson has certainly led to Foster being overworked.

Outside of Johnson, the highest yardage total for a Houston receiver in the last three years was 621 by Kevin Walter in 2010.  Matt Schaub may not be an elite quarterback, but it’s tough to gauge just how good (or bad) he is when lacking dynamic receiving options.  With Walter now a Titan and DeVier Posey injured, there is a gaping whole across the field from Johnson.  Keshawn Martin may develop into a nice slot receiver in time, but the team is still lacking a legitimate second receiver.

Clearly the best second receiver rostered by the Texans in recent memory, Hopkins should see plenty of work early in his career.  With coaches singing his praises early, it’s fair to say coach Kubiak won’t hesitate to go his way frequently from day one.

Proven Production

A three year starter for the Clemson Tigers, Hopkins accumulated over 3,000 yards to go with 27 touchdowns.  Those numbers are impressive enough, but if not for the emergence of Sammy Watkins, they could’ve been even more impressive.  Showing steady progression, he closed out his career with an 82/1405/18 line.

He faced some lackluster defenses in the ACC, but really shined in big games against stout defenses.  Against ranked opponents, his average stat line was 6.3/107.3/1.3, including a dominating effort against a stout LSU defense in the Chick-Fil-A bowl.  Against Les Miles’ twelfth ranked defense, he exploded for 13 catches, 191 yards and two touchdowns.

His combine performance was respectable, but his metrics won’t exactly light the world aflame.  It’s a bit cliché, but I’ll say it anyway – he has top notch football speed.  If you watch his film you’ll see a wide receiver who explodes off the line and runs clean routes with tremendous fluidity.  Game speed is the result of player understanding his position and mastering his role.   His disciplined route running, ability to get off the line and good hands bode well for a college player’s transition to the next level.

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Versatility

Clemson mixes in plenty of the option, but their base offense shows plenty of pro features.  Grasping both blocking in the run game and displaying masterful route running in the more traditional offense speaks volumes about his mental aptitude for the game.  Picking up the Texans offense shouldn’t be a struggle.

His lackluster 40 time of 4.57 seconds may lead you to believe he’s limited to short and intermediate routes.  However, this is another instance where his “game speed” plays a factor.  His masterful route running leads to open opportunities all over the field.  He averaged 12.27 yard per reception as a senior and a large portion of his targets were at least 20 yards down field.  Despite his lack of game breaking speed, his tenacity and ability to high point the ball make him a dangerous weapon anywhere on the field.

Summary

He isn’t the fastest, tallest or strongest rookie.  He doesn’t have the highest ceiling –in fact, that title might go to Patterson.  If upside isn’t what you’re searching for and reliable depth is what you need, Hopkins is a perfect choice.  With a draft class filled with question marks, Hopkins has the fewest.  Roddy White is a fair comparison and while Hopkins is not guaranteed a career as prolific as White’s, he’s as close as you’ll get to a sure thing in this year’s class.

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