Instant Analysis: Charles Sims to the NFL?

News recently broke that Charles Sims, the running back from University of Houston, has announced he will not be returning for his senior season.  He has not decided at this time whether he will go to another college program or if he will decide to enter the NFL Supplemental Draft to be held later this summer. Sims has already completed his health degree, so his choice is an open-ended one.  Perhaps the running back will pull a Russell Wilson (Wilson had previously graduated from North Carolina State and decided to attend Wisconsin his senior year) and play for a different type of offensive scheme.

I know some of you are already excited about the idea of another draft, but this one is not televised, nor does it have a shred of drama.  Teams submit bids on players for what round they would be willing to give up in next year’s draft.  Browns’ wide receiver Josh Gordon was selected in the second round during last year’s supplemental draft.

Sims is a very interesting talent who was considered one of the top senior backs, so let’s take a closer look at him.  When you first review his numbers, they are outstanding as he averages over 6.2 yards a carry, over 10.8 yards per reception and posted nearly 53 receptions per year.

I recently watched his 2011 game against Tulane.  It was impressive, but a few things concerned me.  Sims, who is 6′ 1″ and weighs 213 lbs., runs very high.  He does not do a good job protecting his body from the constant hits.  He also did not get low and attack defenders with his pads.  I’m not sure if it’s a concern with getting injured or a lack of physical strength because Sims does not get low and struggles in short yardage situations.  If he doesn’t get blocking on the line of scrimmage, it’s hard for him to gain momentum and find a crease. I have that same level of concern with the recent draft choice of the Cowboys, Joseph Randle, whom Sims certainly looks like. When a player has a limited skill set, it lets defenses know what type of play is coming at them and makes offenses easier to defend – no NFL team wants to be handcuffed like that.

The injuries to his ankles and legs are a major concern as well.  He missed three games his junior year and left in the second half of three more games due to injury.  The amount he was used in the passing game decreased each year as the team was trying to keep him healthy.  I have some major concerns as his body was breaking down after fewer than 200 touches for each season.  Hopefully Sims will be able to be in a time share in the NFL that will be able to keep him fresh.

Enough of the negatives.

He has good speed and agility when the play is blocked for him.  The Houston offensive line created some amazing running lanes for Sims and he took advantage of them.  The way he would read his blockers and take the right cuts to avoid tacklers was impressive.  I’m not sure the young running back will get a chance to see lanes like those in the NFL unless it is a preseason game, though.  He shows a quick burst and can move side to side with ease.  His quick feet cause defenders to reverse their pursuit angles and get tangled up.  Not only does Sims have one juke move, he has several he uses to set up the defense.  His downfield vision certainly helps him find the correct lanes to take as well.

Sims does his best work in space and the Houston coaching staff was not averse to lining him up in the slot.  He also has soft hands and shows great concentration.  Sims would run shorter patterns like screens and quick outs, but he could also run longer routes.  When he was asked to pass protect, he stood his ground, so he might be able to play all three downs if his body were to hold up, which is doubtful. As a receiver, he reminded me of converted running back to wide receiver, Dexter McCluster.  They are both are very slippery runners who have great concentration making receptions across the middle. However, McCluster is much smaller and even more ineffective as a runner at 5′ 8″ 170 lbs.  Sims, like McCluster, may have the knack to become a decent returner to use his open field skills.

If he decides to forgo his senior year of eligibility, where should he go?  My initial thoughts were Oakland and Jacksonville.  I do not trust Darren McFadden and neither should the Raiders as McFadden has played 13 games only once in his career. While I like the power and straight ahead speed of rookie Latavius Murray, he does not have the explosive agility and quick cuts Sims possesses.  Sims could be a McFadden clone in the Raiders offense and help keep both backs healthy.  With their quarterback situation not set in stone, Oakland would be better served to do what they do well – run the football.

Jacksonville, unfortunately, only has a handful of offensive playmakers with Maurice Jones-Drew, Justin Blackmon (when he isn’t suspended), and the concussion-prone Cecil Shorts.  If the Jaguars want any level of success, they need to keep MJD healthy and I’m not convinced rookie Denard Robinson will be able to convert from a rushing quarterback to a running back.  Sims would be an effective change of pace back for their limited quarterbacks (Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne) to lean on.

Perhaps this discussion is a year too early, but I would rather be up-to-date on a possible steal for those of you who haven’t drafted your rookies yet or those with waiver wires constantly running.  Running back Charles Sims is an intriguing prospect who could be a nice bonus pick for your dynasty team. If he does enter the supplemental draft, he would be worth considering with a third round rookie pick this year or giving up a second round pick in 2014 in your dynasty league’s supplemental draft.

Editor’s Note:  It remains to be seen if Sims enters the NFL’s supplemental draft, but this is a really good time for league owners to review their league’s rules.  If you have no supplemental draft in your dynasty league and Sims is made available on your league’s waiver wire after (if) he enters, by all means, use one of your two or developmental roster spots on him or drop your kicker for the moment and pick him up just to see what happens.

If you’re a league commissioner, I’d highly recommend you develop rules to have your own supplemental draft. In essence, each team just places a secret bid on any player taken in the draft and the highest bid wins. In other words, if someone places a second round bid on Sims in the future and nobody else bids on him, that team will lose their 2014 second round pick and be awarded the rights to him. Make sure you explain any tie-breakers as well for multiple teams who place bids for the same round (typically the team with the worst record from the previous year would win).

Please follow me on twitter @AndrewMiley.

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