2013 NFL Draft Winners and Losers: AFC West

Eric Hardter Posted On May 24, 2013

We bring our Premium members a team capsule for every team in the NFL every off-season. These quick snapshots in time give you a good assessment of where we feel the value of those players lies at the moment. Unfortunately, things change often in the NFL and in dynasty leagues. The biggest value rises or drops come as a result of the NFL Draft. Rather than leaving those capsules untouched until next year, we decided to go division-by-division with extended coverage of veteran winners and losers from the off-season. Many values have stayed the same, so an entire team capsule would be redundant. However, these articles will cover some key draft additions that have a huge impact in dynasty leagues one way or another.

We continue our journey through the NFL with the AFC West.

Denver Broncos

Pick #28 – Sylvester Williams, DT

Pick #58 – Montee Ball, RB

Pick #90 – Kayvon Webster, CB

Pick #146 – Quanterus Smith, DE

Pick #161 – Tavarres King, WR

Pick #173 – Vinston Painter, OT

Pick #234 – Zac Dysert, QB

Winners

Peyton Manning

The Broncos took a big step towards bolstering their rushing attack with their second round selection of former University of Wisconsin running back Montee Ball. Though Manning is the master of manipulating defenses, it’s a moot point when he’s forced to hand the ball off to the likes of Ronnie Hillman, which is exactly what happened in Denver’s playoff loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Ball, the NCAA’s all-time rushing touchdown leader, affords a credible threat out of the backfield that defenses will be forced to respect, enabling Manning to continue his calculating ways. With the guy I’m about to mention also on board, it’s also been speculated Denver will use the three-receiver set as its base offense.

Wes Welker

Okay, I’m cheating a little bit as this isn’t exactly draft related, but it’s worth noting. Though it’s likely Welker won’t see the 170 targets he used to get from the Patriots’ Tom Brady, he fell to the best possible alternative landing spot. In 2012, Manning completed 78% of his 58 targets to journeyman Brandon Stokley, and Welker seems likely to at least double that number. Manning’s post-operation arm strength is the perfect fit for Welker’s game, and it’s not like fighting Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker for targets will be any different than battling Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Aaron Dobson.

Demaryius Thomas

Thomas was Denver’s clear WR1 last season, and also the team’s best deep play threat (15.3 YPC). Having Welker on board might result in fewer targets, but it’s also likely he’ll see less double coverage.

Losers

Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee

With the addition of Ball, expect one of these two running backs to get the axe (speculation says McGahee due to age and money). Whichever one survives will see a decrease in carries, which is a shame since Manning can turn just about anyone into a borderline PPR RB1. Note that I didn’t include Hillman here, as I believe his role as third-down back will remain unchanged.

Eric Decker

Though he’s more of an outside receiver, Decker’s 12.5 yards per catch in 2012 isn’t much higher than Welker’s career average of 11.2. It’s likely Welker will cut into his intermediate routes, which is an unfortunate turn of events for a player fighting for a new contract.

Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen

See above. With another mouth to feed, the barely relevant tight ends will fade even further into fantasy obscurity.

Brock Osweiler

Osweiler, a former second round pick, was popularly viewed as Manning’s heir-apparent. Though Dysert was “only” a seventh round pick, any kind of competition for an unproven backup is cause for alarm.

Kansas City Chiefs

Pick #1 – Eric Fisher, OT

Pick #63 – Travis Kelce, TE

Pick #96 – Knile Davis, RB

Pick #99 – Nico Johnson, LB

Pick #134 – Sanders Commings, DB

Pick #170 – Eric Kush, C

Pick #204 – Braden Wilson, FB

Pick #207 – Mike Catapano, DE

Winners

Alex Smith

When your team spends its first two picks on the draft’s top offensive tackle (Fisher) and an athletic tight end (Kelce), it’s a good day to be a quarterback. Being bookended by Fisher and left tackle Brandon Albert should give Smith ample time to throw, which is a virtual certainty in new head coach Andy Reid’s pass-heavy offense. With credible threats like receivers Dwayne Bowe and Dexter McCluster, as well as running back Jamaal Charles, expect Smith to improve upon his 2012/2013 numbers.

Jonathan Baldwin

Though the Chiefs brought in veteran Donnie Avery, management’s decision not to select a receiver in the deep 2013 pool could be a sign that there’s still hope for Baldwin. The former first round pick has all the physical tools and now has a clearer path to playing time as well.

Losers

Shaun Draughn and Cyrus Gray

Let’s make one thing clear: neither of these guys was going to supplant Charles as the Chiefs’ bellcow. However, the third-round selection of Davis suggests they’ll now face competition for backup duties, with the loser of that battle likely relegated to special teams.

Tony Moeaki

Though he showed promise as a rookie in 2010, Moeaki tore his ACL during the 2011 preseason, and subsequently didn’t look like the same player last year. With tight ends struggling to find a role in Reid’s offenses as it is, the signing of Kelce could spell doom for what little value Moeaki still has.

Oakland Raiders

Pick #12 – D.J. Hayden, CB

Pick #42 – Menelik Watson, OT

Pick #66 – Sio Moore, LB

Pick #112 – Tyler Wilson, QB

Pick #172 – Nick Kasa, TE

Pick #181 – Latavius Murray, RB

Pick #184 – Mychal Rivera, TE

Pick #205 – Stacy McGee, DT

Pick #209 – Brice Butler, WR

Pick #233 – David Bass, DE

Winners

Denarius Moore, Jacoby Ford, Rod Streater and Juron Criner

By declining to select a receiver until the seventh round, the Raiders signified their intent to move forward with the quartet listed above. Streater, Moore and Ford figure to get the nod in three-wide sets, but the latter two have proven to be injury prone during their short careers. Rising Sophomore Criner, who started to show signs of life at the conclusion of the 2012 season, should receive opportunities as well.

Darren McFadden

Not only did Oakland let backup running back Mike Goodson walk in free agency, they didn’t find his replacement until the sixth round. This is worth noting, as McFadden hasn’t exactly been the picture of health during his short career. Though Latavius Murray could very well prove to be a late-round gem, the Raiders seem content to run the offense through their talented feature back.

Losers

Matt Flynn

How many teams does a guy have to play for before he’s guaranteed the starting job? Moreover, how many Wilsons does he have to beat out to do it? With the fourth round selection of Tyler Wilson, Flynn should definitively be on his guard. It’s unlikely that the Raiders will turn over the reigns to the mid-round rookie, but if the season goes South as they tend to do in Oakland, Flynn could be playing on borrowed time.

David Ausberry

When Brandon Myers left town, the tight end cupboard was left nearly bare. It was assumed that Ausberry, a glorified bulked-up receiver, would take over primary pass-catching duties due to a lack of competition. However, by virtue of the selections of Kasa and Rivera, the position has now turned into a fantasy quagmire best avoided.

San Diego Chargers

Pick #11 – D.J. Fluker, OT

Pick #38 – Manti Te’o, LB

Pick #76 – Keenan Allen, WR

Pick #145 – Steve Williams, CB

Pick #179 – Tourek Williams, DE

Pick #221 – Brad Sorensen, QB

Winners

Philip Rivers

Two things Rivers lacked in 2012 wer an offensive line that could keep him upright and a reliable pass catching corps. Enter Fluker and Allen. Fluker, the Chargers’ first round pick, should serve as an immediate upgrade to a unit that surrendered 49 sacks last year. Allen could wind up being the steal of the draft, as his college game-tape suggested a resume deserving of a first round pick, before a poor 40-yard dash time torpedoed his stock. Combined with the Chargers’ new regime declining to select a quarterback until the seventh round, Rivers has a new lease on fantasy life.

Ryan Mathews

Similar to Rivers, the only competition Mathews will face is from players already on the team. Even though it now seems unlikely that the young San Diego running back will ever turn into the three-down dynamo we expected, it’s comforting to know the Chargers’ front office didn’t deem running back an immediate position of need.

Ladarius Green

Green barely saw the field in 2012, but was drafted to ultimately fill the large shoes of the aging Antonio Gates. Green perfectly fits the new mold of the athletic “joker” tight end, and it’s a vote of confidence that San Diego didn’t draft anyone else at the position.

Losers

Malcom Floyd and Robert Meachem

Though Floyd led San Diego in receiving in 2012, he’s still a soon-to-be 32-year old receiver who never possessed a superior skill set to begin with. Conversely, free-agent bust Meachem couldn’t get anything going last year despite a lack of competition for targets. The Chargers seem likely to move forward with Allen, Danario Alexander and Vincent Brown, rendering this duo hands-off for fantasy purposes.

The Mainstream Media

With Manti Te’o drafted into a small market, where will their stories come from now?

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.