Over/Under: David Wilson
Welcome to another installment of “Over/Under” where I highlight a player and determine some projections based on past tendencies and then state whether I think they will go “over or under” those projections. The criteria will be different for each player based on position and situation.
This week we will focus on the second year running back for the New York Giants, David Wilson. For our debating purposes, we will put his line at 1,200 yards rushing and 7.5 touchdowns.
Full disclosure, I’m not aboard the hype train David Wilson’s fantasy value is currently riding. It feels an awful lot like what we experienced with Ryan Mathews last off-season. We took a player with a successful body of limited work, extrapolated those stats over 16 games and became as giddy as a school girl. Next thing you know Mathews, at one point, was going as high as the RB3 in start-up dynasty drafts and redraft leagues. I went all in on Mathews as I drank the Kool-Aid. I don’t think I need to remind anyone how Mathews’ season turned out.
One of the most important keys in fantasy football (especially dynasty) is learning from your mistakes. What I’ve learned when it comes to off-season hype for “the next big thing” is to pump the brakes, take a step back and re-evaluate.
When I look at Wilson, I see an unproven second year running back who plays for a coach who has a well documented history of preferring a running back by committee. I also see one of the five most electric running backs in all of football – one who can score from anywhere on the field. A former first round pick with speed to burn.
So where does the truth fall in all that? Let’s look a little closer.
Head Coach Tom Coughlin has favored a committee attack since he showed up in the Big Apple in 2004. The last running back Coughlin used as a true feature back was Tiki Barber from 2004 to 2006, and even then he used a goal line back to vulture short yardage touchdowns and preserve unnecessary wear to his runner. The table below shows how the carries have broken down in Tom Coughlin era.
Only once since Barber retired has Coach Coughlin given one running back over 225 carries in a season. Whether it is due to injury (Ahmad Bradshaw couldn’t keep his feet healthy) or being a 265 pound running back who wants to dance behind the line of scrimmage (Brandon Jacobs), the Giants prefer to roll with a one-two punch in the backfield.
Now that Bradshaw is no longer a Giant, everyone has assumed the new featured running back gig will simply be handed to Wilson. As Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast, my friend!”
While Wilson offers the most explosiveness and upside, he is also the most raw. His pass protection skills are a work in progress and when you have a two time Super Bowl winning franchise quarterback like Eli Manning under center, you make sure you have him protected. Also, Wilson’s pass catching skills are not up to par yet – those are the things Bradshaw excelled at and Eli desperately needs.
Another one of Wilson’s shortcomings (and the quickest way into Coach Coughlin’s doghouse) is poor ball security. Wilson was kept off the field for a large portion of his rookie year because of how poorly he handled the ball on special teams. Evident by the way he helped correct Tiki Barber’s fumbling issues, this shouldn’t be a long term concern.
They say the biggest jump for a player’s career happens between his rookie and second years. I believe the Giants’ coaching staff will have Wilson up to speed in pass protection assignments, but Coughlin’s reputation with fumblers is my biggest concern. What if Wilson fumbles the ball a couple times or even once inside the red zone? Will we see him pulled in all important game situations for Andre Brown?
I’ve been saying all along, Brown is being ignored as the thorn in David Wilson owners’ sides. I really believe we are headed for a relatively even timeshare reminiscent of 2009-2011. Barring injury, Wilson will lead this team in carries and yards, but my money is on Brown leading the team in touchdowns and overall fantasy points from the running back position.
I know Wilson is on a lot of lists for breakout candidates, but I have to take the under. I just don’t see how he will step in this year and be “the guy” knowing how Coughlin handles his backfield. I see similarities in Wilson and Jamaal Charles and C.J. Spiller, but those two played in a committee attack their first couple seasons with battering rams Thomas Jones and Fred Jackson, respectively. That’s what I’m expecting with Andre Brown this year.
In addition, if Bradshaw doesn’t get the money he’s looking for in free agency, I think there is still a small possibility he is brought back on a cheap team friendly deal. In my opinion, we are a year too soon on the David Wilson hype train. That’s fine since he’ll be just 22 years old when the season kicks off and that leaves a lot of time for him to grow into his role as the alpha dog in the Giants ground attack.
According to Ryan McDowell’s off-season ADP tracking, Wilson is coming in as the RB12 with an ADP of 24.5. Andre Brown has an ADP of 101 as the RB36, between running backs like Shane Vereen and Rashard Mendenhall.
For this year, I am expecting somewhere in the neighborhood of 225 carries, 1,050 yards rushing and five touchdowns for David Wilson and 185 carries, 825 yards, and ten touchdowns for Andre Brown.
What do you think? Do you think Wilson has what it takes to live up to the hype and join fantasy’s elite? Can he surpass 1,200 yards rushing and 7.5 touchdowns? Let me know in the comments section below.
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