Instant Analysis: Michael Crabtree Tears his Achilles

Ken Kelly Posted On May 22, 2013

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Marcus Lattimore has company in the training room of the 49ers.

Michael Crabtree was last year’s breakout star for the 49ers as he posted 85 catches for 1,105 yards and nine touchdowns. He was just as valuable in the playoffs as he recorded 20 catches for 285 yards and three more touchdowns, while helping lead San Francisco to the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, the good news stops there as Crabtree has reportedly torn his achilles tendon in this morning’s OTA session. It’s a significant blow to the 49ers chances of returning to the promised land and throws a bucket of cold water on the dynasty value of Crabtree, while giving some opportunities to others on the roster at the same time.

Let’s go player-by-player as we analyze the impact of this unfortunate injury.

Michael Crabtree, WR SF

This is a brutal injury for Crabtree to endure. Our own Scott Peak (The Dynasty Doctor) covered the injuries recently within his ACL article found here. An excerpt from that article is as follows:

“A torn Achilles tendon usually occurs when the lower leg is extended, and the foot is dorsiflexed (the heel is flat on the ground, while the toes and arch of the foot are pointed upwards). This position stretches the tendon too much, and it can tear, particularly with sudden force and rapid changes in position. There is an excellent study from Duke, published in 2009, that describes recovery rates for NFL players with a torn Achilles tendon between 1997 to 2002. In total, 31 NFL players were evaluated and 36% were unable to return to play at all after surgery. The remaining players had a substantial reduction in performance, measured by variables such as receiving yards, passing yards, rushing and receiving touchdowns. The average reduction in production, and therefore fantasy football points, was 50%. Running backs and wide receivers had up to an 83 to 88% drop in production in this study. NFL players also missed more games, as these players averaged 12 games per year before surgery, and six games per year after surgery. Worse yet, their post-surgery performance got worse over the following three years.”

In short, Crabtree faces an uphill climb. The good news is we’ve seen a similar player return to form and still have an extremely productive career as Demaryius Thomas of the Broncos was able to recover well from his own torn achilles. Players like Mikel Leshoure and Kendall Hunter are fighting there way back in different stages of their recovery at this point in time.

If you own Crabtree, the only thing you can do is sit back and cry. You can’t trade him at an extremely deflated price and you simply have to follow his recovery and hope he can come back as strong as Thomas did. While the odds are not in his favor of returning to 100%, he can still be a very productive player if his recovery goes well. The 49ers will undoubtedly do everything they can to get him back on the field as soon as possible. Players like Terrell Suggs and Da’Quan Bowers were able to return last season after suffering similar injuries around the same time. Realistically, it’s going to be 2014 at the earliest until you can hope to get consistent production, though. Even then, hope is the key word.

Colin Kaepernick, QB SF

Kaepernick will enter his first season as the starter in San Francisco without his best receiving weapon. He has the talent and moxy to be successful with our without Crabtree, but his short-term value takes a bit of hit with this news. Kaepernick’s success this year will be predicated upon Anquan Boldin turning back the clock, Vernon Davis returning to form and some other receivers growing up quickly. He still uses his legs to create plays, so don’t panic. Life won’t be as easy without Crabtree, but Kaepernick should be fine.

Vernon Davis, TE SF

Davis was a forgotten man for much of the season last year – that shouldn’t happen in 2013. With Crabtree on the shelf, he should be one of the primary targets for the San Francisco offense again. He needs to really step up and be the player we’ve seen in the past. He’s a good “buy” candidate in dynasty leagues again.

Anquan Boldin, WR SF

Boldin was supposed to be a possession receiver to help move the chains for the 49ers – he’ll now be forced to be the top receiver on the team. It’s hard to say if Boldin is up for the task as it seems he’s really lost a step or two recently, but his short-term value surely goes up with Crabtree out of the mix. I wouldn’t expect him to be the player we saw in Arizona, though. In fact, I’d be selling if you have owners in your league overreacting to the news. Boldin is best served as a flex player and may not even maintain that value this season.

AJ Jenkins, WR SF

Jenkins was recently quoted as saying he was “lost” last season after being a first round draft pick. He better turn that around here quickly as the 49ers suddenly need him to step up and be the player they hoped he’d be when they took him out of Illinois last year. Jenkins needs to grasp the offense now and bulk up because he’s going to get every opportunity to be a surprise contributor for San Francisco this season.

Quinton Patton, WR SF

The former Lousiana Tech star was slated for a bit of a redshirt season this year, but he’s going to move up the depth chart now that Crabtree is hurt. Patton was extremely productive in college as he posted a ridiculous 104 catches for 1,392 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. Playing against Utah State and Idaho are a lot different than playing against the Seattle Seahawks, but the Niners will push his development quicker now. He should move up a bit in rookie drafts based on his new opportunities, but you shouldn’t go crazy – remember, we’re talking dynasty leagues here.

Mario Manningham, WR SF

Manningham was lucky to even remain on the team this season and agreed to a massive pay cut just to do so. He was a colossal bust last season, but San Francisco suddenly needs his veteran presence. If the young receivers can’t step up in short order, Manningham will be thrust back into the mix quickly. He may just be worth a roster spot in deep leagues again.

Ricardo Lockette, WR SF

Head Coach Jim Harbaugh has been praising Lockette a ton this off-season. While most of us dismissed that as “coachspeak,” Lockette does have some sleeper appeal now. The battle between Lockette, Jenkins and Patton will be one to watch this Summer now – the winner could have some serious short-term value and could even develop into a nice dynasty league asset if Crabtree fails to come back strong.

Frank Gore, RB SF

For those expecting Gore to be an afterthought in the offense, this news simply re-affirms the fact the 49ers will continue to be a run-first team. With Crabtree out, San Francisco will need an even bigger season from Gore and the rest of the running back corps.

Randy Moss, WR FA

Will his phone ring again?

SUMMARY

The injury to Crabtree is extremely unfortunate and while it throws his value into flux, the opportunities it gives others could prove fruitful in dynasty leagues. This is a tough day for owners of Crabtree in dynasty leagues, but make sure you respond accordingly and don’t have a knee-jerk reaction.

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Ken Kelly

Co-Founder at DynastyLeagueFootball

Ken is a corporate trainer by day an a tireless editor of dynasty content by night. His passion for the World Champion Seattle Seahawks is second only to his love of fantasy football and the dynasty format.

Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK