2013 NFL Draft Winners and Losers: AFC East
We bring our Premium members a team capsule for every team in the NFL every off-season. These quick snapshots in time give you a good assessment of where we feel the value of those players lies at the moment. Unfortunately, things change often in the NFL and in dynasty leagues. The biggest value rises or drops come as a result of the NFL Draft. Rather than leaving those capsules untouched until next year, we decided to go division-by-division with extended coverage of veteran winners and losers from the off-season. Many values have stayed the same, so an entire team capsule would be redundant. However, these articles will cover some key draft additions that have a huge impact in dynasty leagues one way or another.
We continue our analysis with a look at the AFC East.
Buffalo Bills
Pick #32- E.J. Manuel, QB
Pick #41- Robert Woods, WR
Pick #46- Kiko Alonso, LB
Pick #78- Marquise Goodwin, WR
Pick #105- Duke Williams, S
Pick #143- Jonathan Meeks, S
Pick #177- Dustin Hopkins, K
Pick #222- Chris Gragg, TE
Winners
EJ Manuel
New head coach Doug Marrone is known for offensive creativity and judging by his first draft class, he’s clearly planning to use speed as his primary weapon. Manuel stands to benefit from Marrone’s play calling, especially with electric playmakers around him. Rookie wideouts Robert Woods and Da’Rick Rogers are fast and sure-handed, joining Stevie Johnson to comprise a suddenly talented receiving corps. Behind an improving offensive line, the only quarterback taken in the first round finds himself with a coach fully invested in him and a group of talented skill players. He needs to work on his deep accuracy and improve his decision-making, but he was drafted into a situation that will help his development.
CJ Spiller
Marrone’s offense ran the ball over 52% of the time in 2012, compared with 46% for the Bills. Adding talent to stretch the field will help prevent defenses from stacking the box against Spiller, giving him more room to run with more opportunity. As the presence of 32-year-old Fred Jackson is more likely to help keep Spiller fresh than hinder his statistics, a younger and more talented supporting cast has raised Spiller’s stock this off-season (if that’s even possible).
Chris Gragg
The former wide receiver from Arkansas has good speed and athleticism as well as adequate blocking skills that should keep him on the field more. Perhaps most importantly, there’s not much ahead of him on the depth chart given Scott Chandler’s recent ACL surgery and Lee Smith’s primary role as a blocker. Injury history and size (6’3, 225) are the knocks on Gragg, but he should get the opportunity to contribute.
Losers
Kevin Kolb
Though he must have known a younger option would be on the way in short order, Kolb couldn’t have felt good watching Buffalo use their first round pick on their choice of any quarterback. The little fantasy value Kolb has rests on the team choosing to let Manuel watch and learn to begin his career, which is hard to envision given the recent history of rookie quarterback success and the investment the team has in the #16 overall pick. If he does start, Kolb has a much better offensive line than he did in Arizona, so he may stay on his feet long enough to stand a chance. I just don’t expect to see him starting games for the Bills when the snow starts flying, which could be October in Buffalo.
TJ Graham
The comparisons to Marquise Goodwin have all been made and include most small receivers with elite speed. Unfortunately for Graham, the current regime drafted Goodwin, who is a better blocker and had an even faster 40 time (4.27 vs. 4.41). Graham didn’t make much of his opportunities late in the season and at this point he may not find many more.
Rian Lindell
It’s never good news for an incumbent when the team spends a draft pick on a kicker.
Miami Dolphins
Pick #3- Dion Jordan, DE
Pick #54- Jamar Taylor, CB
Pick #77- Dallas Thomas, OL
Pick #93- Will Davis, CB
Pick #104- Jelani Jenkins, ILB
Pick #106- Dion Sims, TE
Pick #164- Mike Gillislee, RB
Pick #166- Caleb Sturgis, K
Pick #250- Don Jones, S
Winners
Ryan Tannehill
From a pure draft perspective, Tannehill’s weekend could have gone better. With Jake Long gone, the quarterback would have benefited from Miami picking Lane Johnson at number three overall instead of Dion Jordan,  or perhaps trading their second round pick to Kansas City for Branden Albert instead of to Oakland. However, with the additions of Mike Wallace, Brandon Gibson, and Dustin Keller, as well as resigning Brian Hartline, Tannehill’s value has already spiked dramatically. Miami selected versatile lineman Dallas Thomas (Tennessee) in the third round and recently signed Tyson Clabo to man right tackle, so they’re banking on those two to help anchor their offensive line.
Lamar Miller
By letting Reggie Bush walk without much of a push to re-sign him, Miami displayed its confidence in making Miller its lead running back. After the selection of Mike Gillislie, dynasty owners are left wondering how this impacts Miller. After all, both backs are comparable in size and Gillislee has a reputation of being a strong blocker. However, Gillislee isn’t nearly as explosive as Miller and is likely to be more of a third down back – this would give Miller a little more rest on each series, keeping him fresh without cutting too significantly into playing time. Long-term, reviews on Gillislee’s career outlook are mixed in terms of his ability to be a starter and every down back. As a Miller owner, I see it as a good sign they waited and took a player like Gillislee as a complementary player.
Losers
Daniel Thomas
For all the reasons Gillislee is not a negative impact to Lamar Miller, the opposite can be said of Daniel Thomas.
Knee surgery and on-field ineffectiveness caused Thomas to slide down the depth chart in 2012 and the addition of the fifth round pick clouds his future even more. A popular sleeper pick who appeared to complement Reggie Bush coming out of the 2011 draft, Thomas has likely lost his opportunity to be fantasy relevant.
Michael Egnew
Aside from the looming Charles Clay (who is versatile and a deep sleeper in dynasty leagues), Egnew’s outlook had already taken a big hit after the Dolphins signed Dustin Keller. Miami then took the seventh tight end off the board as they drafted Dion Sims of Michigan State who is more of a blocker, but would use a roster spot allocated for the position. Those two additions mean Egnew’s time in Miami is likely coming to a close.
New England Patriots
Pick #52- Jamie Collins, DE
Pick #59- Aaron Dobson, WR
Pick #83- Logan Ryan, CB
Pick #91- Duron Harmon, S
Pick #102- Josh Boyce, WR
Pick #226- Michael Buchanan, DE
Pick #235- Steve Beauhamais, ILB
Winners
Tom Brady
They weren’t exactly the receivers we envisioned going to the Patriots, but Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce both represent improvements on the team’s wide receiver depth chart. Dobson has sticky hands as well as the size and speed to separate downfield and in jump-ball situations. Boyce could play the slot as well as on the outside, and only dropped in the draft due to a foot injury. Adding these talented wideouts gives Brady some young playmakers in a rebuilding receiving corps.
Shane Vereen
After letting Danny Woodhead walk, Belichick jettisoned Jeff Demps to acquire a plodding running back in LeGarrette Blount. With Leon Washington expected to handle return duties, Vereen finds himself without significant competition for the backfield receiver/third-down role he split with Woodhead in 2012. Woodhead tied for #13 among all running backs with 40 receptions to supplement Vereen’s eight in the regular season. However, Vereen nearly matched his season total in two playoff games with seven receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns. An increased workload in a role filled with PPR potential boosts Vereen’s value significantly in 2013.
Rutgers University
Bill Belichick continued to show his affinity for players from Rutgers, selecting three of their defensive starters from 2012. Logan Ryan and Steve Beauhamais were solid values for their draft slots, though Duron Harmon was considered a reach by many. All should have good shots at making the roster, particularly if they can contribute on special teams as Belichick loves versatility.
Losers
Brandon Bolden
Being a short-yardage back who struggled in short-yardage situations in 2012, Bolden found himself with strong competition via the draft day trade that brought Blount to New England. Bolden’s presence on kickoff and punt return coverage may help him keep a roster spot, but if Blount makes the team, there is likely very little fantasy value in store for Bolden in 2013.
Michael Jenkins and Donald Jones
These veteran wideouts fell from likely starters to potential cuts after Dobson and Boyce were drafted. If the rookies impress in training camp and pick up the playbook quickly, there may not be room for one or both, especially if New England’s top receiving targets (both tight ends) are healthy.
Jake Bequette
Drafting Jamie Collins as their top pick and stealing Michael Buchanan in round seven does not bode well for Bequette, a 4-3 defensive end and 3-4 weak outside linebacker. After being drafted in the third round in 2012, Bequette made no impact as a rookie and will likely be fighting for his roster spot in training camp. Jermaine Cunningham should be nervous, too.
New York Jets
Pick #9- Dee Milliner, CB
Pick #13- Sheldon Richardson, DT
Pick #39- Geno Smith, QB
Pick #72- Brian Winters, OG
Pick #141- Oday Aboushi, OT
Pick #178- William Campbell, OG
Pick #215- Tommy Bohanon, FB
Winners
Chris Ivory
Finally at the top of a depth chart, Ivory should have plenty of opportunity to show what he can do with a sizable workload. Only a lengthy injury history with knee, foot, hamstring and shoulder problems could limit his time on the field. The position of lead running back for the Jets also improved through the draft with the additions of offensive linemen Brian Winters, Oday Aboushi, and William Campbell as well as fullback Tommy Bohanon. Mediocre guard Matt Slauson left to sign with Chicago, so plugging Winters into his spot immediately upgrades the run blocking in front of Ivory.
Jeff Cumberland
With a new offensive coordinator in Marty Mornhinweg (formerly of the Eagles) and a new aggressive philosophy which will rely on high-percentage throws, things are looking up for the tight end position. With Keller gone, the closest thing the Jets currently have to a receiving tight end is Cumberland. After all, 18 of Cumberland’s 29 receptions in 2012 came with Keller out, totaling 359 yards with three touchdowns. Nothing was done to address the position through the draft, so opportunity may allow Cumberland to fall into some deep league fantasy relevance.
Losers
Quarterbacks
On day two of the NFL Draft, several quarterbacks must have cringed with the selection of Geno Smith at #39 overall – this would have included Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow, Greg McElroy, Matt Simms and Geno Smith himself. Sanchez is unlikely to be cut due to his contract and salary cap hit, but this marks the beginning of the end (if not the end itself) of his time as the Jets starting quarterback. Tebow has since been cut, and McElroy and Simms slid even further down the depth chart. It has been questioned whether Smith can handle the pressure of the New York spotlight, and rather than being able to focus entirely on learning his new role, there will be a circus of scrutiny around the Sanchez/Smith position battle. Combined with the lack of offensive skill talent surrounding him, this was perhaps the worst-case scenario for Geno Smith.
Mike Goodson
The excitement surrounding Ivory’s arrival in New York was preceded by the (slightly more subdued) excitement surrounding the possibilities of what Goodson could do with the opportunity. An elusive runner and solid pass blocker, Goodson is likely to be a third-down back behind Ivory assuming they both can stay healthy. While still worth owning in deep leagues given Ivory’s lengthy injury history, Goodson’s sleeper status has decreased dramatically since the NFL Draft trade.
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