The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

randall_cobb2

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.) We hold our rookie draft after most of the NFL preseason games. How much should I change my rookie rankings from the production that I see in preseason games?  Should I stick to my guns and keep drafting the more talented player or start believing my eyes in what I see in preseason?Carmen in FL

To answer the first part of your question in an overly generalized level, I’m going to say “not much.”  The biggest problem with preseason games can be broken down into one word:  context.  For those familiar with the “Major League” movie franchise (if not, spoiler alert: Major League is the greatest sports movie of all time) Coach Lou Brown summarized it the best.  After catcher Rube Baker remarked that center fielder Willie Mays Hayes improved his power after a home run in a spring training game, Brown stated matter-of-factly the blast was “off a guy who’ll be bagging groceries in a couple of weeks!”

The point is, between the diluted offensive schemes and plethora of “camp bodies” seeing prominent playing time, it’s tough to tell if the production is real or not.  In fact, until the third preseason game, starters rarely if ever play more than a quarter – this tends to lead to inflated statistics from players who otherwise wouldn’t see the field nearly as much.  Let’s consider a few examples from the 2012 preseason.

The Eagles’ Nick Foles completed 40-of-63 passes for 553 yards with six touchdowns and only two interceptions.  Travaris Cadet of the Saints carried the ball 39 times for 132 yards and also caught 30 passes for an additional 246 yards.  Finally, Washington’s Kirk Cousins completed 42 of 73 passes for 560 yards, passing for three touchdowns to two interceptions.  Yet even though Foles had a few moments, none of these players truly proved anything in the regular season.

With that said, one thing to look for is depth chart movement.  Some examples include Seahawks’ quarterback Russell Wilson and Redskins’ running back Alfred Morris gaining their respective starting jobs.  However, stories like this remain few and far between, so I’d just stick with your initial assessments.  If that means you wind up missing out on the next Victor Cruz, so be it.

2.) In my 14-team league, we are allowed to keep up to three players in place of our top three picks. On my roster I have Trent Richardson, AJ Green, Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb. Given the format with two FLEX positions and only one quarterback, do you think it’s advantageous for me to look at moving Rodgers? If so, do you think there is more value in packing Rodgers with Cobb for a top running back or keeping Cobb and moving Rodgers for picks?Michael in CA

If I’m reading your question correctly, we’ve both arrived at the same conclusion that it’s imperative for you to keep both Richardson and Green.  Due to a combination of age and skill, one can make an argument both players are the number one options at their respective positions.  According to the ADP data, they’re being taken off the board as the first and sixth players overall.dad4madi01

Sticking with the ADP data, Rodgers and Cobb are both considered second round prospects.  Rodgers is currently going at pick 16.8, with Cobb being selected slightly later at pick 23.2.  Therefore, the lazy argument would say that Rodgers is more valuable and you should choose to keep him instead of trade him.

In this case, I agree with the sentiment of sticking with Rodgers, but it’s less due to laziness and more with your league setup.  In 14-team leagues, quarterbacks become more valuable than in smaller formats.  In fact, in 2012, the difference between Rodgers and QB15 Joe Flacco (the first second tier option in a 14-owner league) was 110 points, or 6.9 points per game.  The drop-off proved to be incredibly steep.

If you neglect to keep Rodgers, you’ll have to spend an early pick on a signal caller to come anywhere near matching his production.  With the deeper receiver position, Cobb’s points will likely be more replicable.  I’d go with Rodgers and be content with the fact you might very well have three top positional keeper options.

3.) I finished second in my 12-team PPR dynasty league last season with Drew Brees and Jason Witten playing prominent roles.  Unfortunately, looking at Brees and Witten I see stocks that will soon start to drop due to their ages.  I am thinking of going after Cam Newton and Rob Gronkowski or Andrew Luck and Arian Foster.  What are your thoughts on moving Brees and Witten before the coming season?John in Ontario

Imagine you’re driving down the road.  You approach an intersection and come to a stop, and now you have an important decision to make.  Do you continue along on “Win Now Way,” or make a turn onto “Crux of Dynasty Drive?”  Phrased another way, how old is too old, and does it violate the essence of dynasty leagues to rely on older players?

The short answer to this question is why mess with a good thing?  If you managed to finish second in your league, your team is obviously talented.  As you mentioned, a bulk of this talent comes from having Drew Brees at quarterback and Jason Witten at tight end.  Sure, they’re aging and have finite shelf lives relative to the more youthful options, but consider the following statistics:  Brees has finished as the overall QB1 in three of the past five seasons and Witten has been a top-five tight end every year during that same time frame.  There’s something to be said for that type of reliability.

Yes, the allure of youth tends to move to the forefront of many dynasty owners’ minds.  However, consider the opportunity cost.  Trading for Newton or Luck will likely lead to a greater longevity for your team’s quarterback, but will they replicate Brees’ statistics in the next few years?  Do you have the pieces to upgrade from Witten to Gronkowski, and even then, do you trust Gronk’s ability to stay on the field?  You could very well wind up sacrificing a known present for an unpredictable future.  To be honest, this just sounds like off-season hypothesizing at that time of the year when we all get a little bored.  I’d just stand pat, compete for 2013, and worry about getting younger later.

4.) In my 10-team superflex PPR league, I need to keep five of the following players, with the corresponding round penalties in parentheses:  Ray Rice (1), Chris Johnson (1), Trent Richardson (3), Percy Harvin (5), Robert Griffin III (6), Jamaal Charles (6), Colin Kaepernick (8), Randall Cobb (8) and CJ Spiller (9).  There’s also a two-round increase each year and bonus points for big plays.  One clarification: if I keep both Rice and Johnson, the cost for Johnson is a second round pick.  Also, I can keep players forever.  Who should I keep? Andy in HI

In superflex leagues, you can place yourself at an enormous relative advantage by having the ability to start two top-flight options at the quarterback position.  Therefore, I think it’s an easy choice to keep both Robert Griffin III and Colin Kaepernick.  They combine both youth and extraordinary talent, and given your keeper format, also don’t cost all that much!  I could very well see you keeping both for the durations of their promising careers.

Next, I think we need to consider which other skill-position players combine talent with cost-effectiveness.  The two names that jump out at me are CJ Spiller at the cost of a ninth round pick, and Jamaal Charles for a sixth round pick.  In 2012, both finished as top-nine options in PPR leagues, and 2013 looks even brighter.  Charles should see an uptick in receptions in new Head Coach Andy Reid’s offense, and Spiller looks likely to finally get his crack at shouldering the load on Buffalo’s offense.  Trent Richardson is a tough omission, but his cost would prove prohibitive as soon as 2014 – this now gives you an elite pair of ball carriers to couple with your stud signal callers.

Finally, you need to round out both your roster and keeper selections with a pass catcher.  My choice here would be Percy Harvin.  Though he missed the end of the 2012 due to injury, his 18.1 points per game would’ve seen him ranked him as the WR8, had he remained healthy.  Though his cost is slightly more inflated than that of Randall Cobb, he should be a PPR dynamo in Seattle’s offense.

Should you choose to go this route, you’d have five elite options whose combination of age, skill and price leave you in an advantageous position.  Your 2012 draft would still include picks in the first four rounds, where you could possibly recoup any of the players you passed over.  Coupling your keepers with your picks should render you as the early favorite in 2013.

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eric hardter