Non-PPR Rookie Draft Review

Jacob Feldman

le'veon-bellThe dynasty world is very quickly turning into a PPR world with about three times the number of PPR dynasty leagues when compared to non-PPR or “traditional” leagues. For that reason, most of our work reflects PPR scoring, including the recent rookie mock drafts. In order to help those of you that still play in leagues that have “traditional” scoring, here is a brief run through of what I might expect a rookie mock draft to look like in a non-PPR league.

I didn’t want this to simply be my non-PPR rankings list, because that is just one man’s opinion. What I decided to do instead was take the most recent PPR mock draft and look at each pick. If they are someone who would lose value going from PPR to non-PPR, I adjusted them down a bit. If it was someone I view as PPR having minimal impact, I kept them about the same. If it was someone who would actually gain value in a non-PPR league, I boosted them up a bit. I did not do significant re-ordering of players based purely on my opinions of them. For example, I won’t put Travis Kelce above Zach Ertz just because I feel Kelce is the superior prospect. Ertz will still be drafted first since they are the same role and he was taken higher in our PPR mock – this is just an adjustment of the PPR mock, not my personal feelings.

Overall, this means high volume receivers and passing down backs dropped the most. Receivers who are more of a deep threat and tight ends did drop a bit, but not as much as their high volume pass catching counterparts. This also means most running backs and quarterbacks slid up a bit. After each round, I’ll give a bit of commentary on moves of note. If you want more detailed commentary on the picks, take a look at the PPR mock draft round 1, round 2, and round 3.

Round One

1.01  – Montee Ball, RB DEN  (PPR mock – 1.03)

1.02  – Tavon Austin, WR STL (PPR mock – 1.02)

1.03  – Eddie Lacy, RB GBP (PPR mock – 1.06)

1.04  – Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT (PPR mock – 1.09)

1.05  – Giovani Bernard, RB CIN (PPR mock – 1.02)

1.06  – DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU (PPR mock – 1.04)

1.07  – Cordarrelle Patterson, WR MIN (PPR mock – 1.05)

1.08  – Marcus Lattimore, RB SF (PPR mock – 1.12)

1.09  – Justin Hunter, WR TEN (PPR mock – 1.08)

1.10  – Keenan Allen, WR SDC (PPR mock – 1.07)

1.11  – Zac Stacy, RB STL (PPR mock – 2.06)

1.12  – EJ Manuel, QB BUF (PPR mock – 2.02)

There are a few changes of note from the PPR draft, but most of the names are in roughly the same spots they were in before. The first change of note is the switch at the top. Austin slid out of the top slot by a slim margin. I still feel Austin is the most talented player in this draft. However, being a smaller receiver who will see a lot of time in the slot means he is worth quite a bit less in non-PPR scoring. In PPR, he’s the top choice without question in my mind, but here he’s second.

After the switch at the top, you notice four of the first five picks are running backs and the top drafted PPR running back is the fourth one taken here. I think Bernard is likely to lead all rookie backs in receptions; however, I don’t think he will be the most productive long or short term. Without points for those receptions, he’s going to go a touch later in my opinion, while the other three will all be on the field for early down work.

Starting with pick six, you see the start of the second tier with a little run on the receivers. They are just more talented than the rest of the players available and should be going before anyone else, even in a non-PPR league. Lattimore sneaks into the mix as well as Hunter and Allen switching spots. The swap is because I think the Chargers will use Allen as more of a chain mover while Hunter is going to be the field stretcher for the Titans, giving Hunter a very slim margin. However,  it could definitely go either way.

The last two picks of the round start my third tier in a non-PPR league. Stacy makes a big climb from the middle of the second to the late first because he will almost certainly handle the short yardage and goal-line looks for the Rams. Manuel also sneaks into the first because someone is going to gamble on him being the next mobile quarterback with everyone else at a comparable talent level being pass catchers.

Round Two

2.01 – Johnathan Franklin, RB GB (PPR mock – 2.03)

2.02 – Markus Wheaton, WR PIT (PPR mock – 1.10)

2.03 – Robert Woods, WR BUF (PPR mock – 1.11)

2.04 – Tyler Eifert, TE CIN (PPR mock – 2.01)

2.05 – Christine Michael, RB SEA (PPR mock – 2.10)

2.06 – Geno Smith, QB NYJ (PPR mock – 2.08)

2.07 – Zach Ertz, TE PHI (PPR mock – 2.04)

2.08 – Terrance Williams, WR DAL (PPR mock – 2.05)

2.09 – Stephan Taylor, RB ARI (PPR mock – 2.11)

2.10 – Travis Kelce, TE KCC (PPR mock – 2.07)

2.11 – Aaron Dobson, WR NE (PPR mock – 2.12)

2.12 – Stedman Bailey, WR STL (PPR mock – 2.09)

Much like the first round, most of the names in the second round of the PPR draft were still there. A few of the pass catchers from the late first or early second round slid down a few spots as they were overtaken by some of the running backs, but that is to be expected.

You likely noticed both Franklin and Michael took jumps up. I think Franklin will largely be the third down back this year for the Packers. However, I do think he is more talented than Lacy and eventually he will be the primary back, while Lacy is more of the goal line and short yardage specialist. Franklin could easily sneak into the first round if someone in your leagues agrees with me. Michael is more of a long term investment as I think it will be two or three years before he is a true fantasy asset, but people will wait on a running back – just ask the Jonathan Stewart owners.

In a non-PPR league, the vast majority of running backs of note will be gone by the middle of the second round. After the top eight backs (Michael being the eighth), there is a big drop off in talent and potential. Someone is going to reach for players like Taylor in the late second, but I think once the top eight are gone, the chances of any of the rest of them making a significant impact is pretty slim. Even in non-PPR leagues, the late second and third round should be dominated by pass catchers.

Round Three

3.01 – Joseph Randle, RB DAL (PPR mock – 3.06)

3.02 – Mike Gillislee, RB MIA (PPR mock – 3.07)

3.03 – Andre Ellington, RB ARI (PPR mock – 3.08)

3.04 – Da’Rick Rogers, WR BUF (PPR mock – 3.01)

3.05 – Quinton Patton, WR SF (PPR mock – 3.02)

3.06 – Matt Barkley, QB PHI (PPR mock – 3.04)

3.07 – Knile Davis, RB KC (PPR mock – 3.10)

3.08 – Jordan Reed, TE WAS (PPR mock – 3.09)

3.09 – Marquise Goodwin, WR BUF (PPR mock – 3.05)

3.10 – Latavius Murray, RB OAK (PPR mock – Undrafted)

3.11 – Rex Burkhead, RB CIN (PPR mock – Undrafted)

3.12 – Denard Robinson, RB JAC (PPR mock – Undrafted)

Remember when I said a moment ago the third round should be dominated by pass catchers? Well, what should happen and what does happen are often very different things, especially in the world of fantasy football. While there are many pass catchers who are more talented than some of the players listed in this third round, in a non-PPR draft, coaches will reach for running backs with the slimmest chance to succeed instead of taking a wide receiver with a better chance to succeed. I followed more what I think will happen in a lot of leagues.

The three running backs who went early in the third are what I consider the handcuff trio. None of the three are talented enough to steal the job from the current starter on their team. However, there really isn’t much of anyone else on their team’s roster to be the backup – that means they are one injury away from being something.

Towards the end of the third, you see another trio of running backs. These are some of the faster rising late round picks. It wouldn’t surprise me to see some or maybe even all three of these names starting to show up in the third round, especially in a non-PPR scoring format. We all know about Latavius Murray thanks to Steve’s article. Rex Burkhead is the pick of many to be the long term running mate to Bernard in Cincinnati.  As for Robinson, I think he is most likely to be all hype and little production, but the name and the lack of a backup for Maurice Jones-Drew will make someone gamble on him.

Well, there you have it. Three rounds of non-PPR goodness for those of you that were struggling to adjust the PPR mock drafts to better suit your format. Keep in mind every league is very different and these aren’t a direct reflection of my own rankings, rather a combination of our PPR mock draft and my guesses at what will happen in a “traditional” league.

Happy drafting!

jacob feldman