Contract of Diminishing Returns, Part Three: 2013 Outlook for Wide Receivers

In the first installment of this series, I examined the effect of landing a large contract with heavy salary guarantees on a player’s production and subsequent fantasy output.  In my findings from the last two years, 76.5% of players rewarded with such contracts responded with less fantasy production in the following year.

As a follow-up of this examination, I will provide my outlook for the 2013 contract year players.  Based on the relative accuracy of my data, I will use similar parameters to determine what we can expect in 2013 from players who just signed major deals this off-season.

The first factor is consistency.  Consistency is an important factor in distinguishing if a player has proven they can maintain a high level of play even in non-contract years.  If a player‘s previous season jumps off the page, it is more likely to reflect a player who is fighting for a payday.

Personality red flags are important because they can help determine if a player can continue to stay focused, or rather have had motivational concerns.  If their history suggests behavioral problems, perhaps a not-so-unpredictable incident could result in team or league discipline and potentially decrease their production because they are forced to miss playing time.

The final parameter is situational factors.  This could be the team’s offensive play style, competition for playing time and potentially how other players on the team may affect their output.  Each player’s situation is different so it is important to consider the other variables at play.

In part two, I examined the 2013 outlook for quarterback, running back and tight end contract players .  After analyzing the statistics from the previous two years of contract year players, the wide receivers have realized a slight difference in trend than the other positions.  Compared to quarterbacks and running backs, receivers have been far less vulnerable to losing fantasy production in similar circumstances.  Here are my predictions for this year’s wide receiver class:

Percy Harvin, WR SEA

Contract:  6 years – $67 million ($25.5 million guaranteed)

Consistency:  Since entering the league in 2009, Percy Harvin has widely been considered one of the most dynamic threats in the NFL.  In just eight games before injury in 2012, he totaled 60 receptions, 667 yards receiving and three touchdowns – this stat line was good for second in positional fantasy ranking over the first half of the season.  These numbers certainly stood out from previous years.

Personality:   Harvin is not void of personality concerns and is well known for his diva attitude.  ESPN wrote he has a “high-maintenance personality and the need to satisfy his financial demands.”  As such, his actions have consistently been a distraction.  He has threatened holdouts, demanded trades and been anything but quiet regarding his contract.

Situational Factors:  Harvin joins a new offense with a large upgrade at the quarterback position.  Upside with Russell Wilson is greater than it was in Minnesota.

Conclusion:  Last year Harvin was in the midst of a full breakout season before an injury cut it short.  He showed how he could be utilized in many situations.  With that being said, based on his personality and the huge uptick in production, Harvin is a prime candidate to realize a fantasy decrease in average PPG and positional ranking.

Mike Wallace, WR MIA

Contract:  5 years – $60 million ($27 million guaranteed)

Consistency:  In Mike Wallace’s second and third NFL seasons he topped the 1,000-yard receiving mark, but fell short last season despite an increase in targets.  His ability to find the end zone has been a reliable part of his game throughout his career.

Personality:   In terms of distractions, after receiving the franchise tag last off-season, he did stage a holdout.  The holdout lasted through OTAs and continued well into the preseason.  He reported to camp just about a week before the season opener without the deal he longed for.

Situational Factors:  Wallace is going to a new team where he is expected to be the number one receiver from day one.  He is supposed to be the offensive receiving threat the Fins have lacked for some time and is sure to be a focal point in the offense.

Conclusion:  Wallace is a potential candidate to realize a fall off in production.  Staging a holdout does raise some concerns about post-contract motivation.  He may enter the season as the team’s leading receiving option, but quarterback Ryan Tannehill is still young and hasn’t shown a huge arm to accentuate Wallace’s deep threat abilities.  The bar wasn’t set very high, but if he can top last year’s production it won’t be by much.

Dwayne Bowe, WR KC

Contract:  5 years – $56 million ($26 million guaranteed)

Consistency:  Despite quarterback concerns in recent years with Matt Cassel under center, Dwayne Bowe has still maintained a high level of consistency.  Every season (with the exception of an incomplete 2009), he has been a lock for nearly 1,000 receiving yards.  Last year, he only played 13 games, but his weekly production followed a similar trend.

Personality:  Although Bowe has never been arrested, he does bring some personality concerns to the table.  His conditioning and work ethic have long been questioned.  He has been known to report to camp overweight and coaches have said his lack of concentration and laziness could be a main factor in his high number of dropped passes.  He was also suspended for four games in 2009 due to use of a PED.

Situational Factors:  Bowe re-signed with the Chiefs, but a new offense under head coach Andy Reid is coming to town.  Furthermore, he’ll have a new quarterback in Alex Smith, which isn’t necessarily an upgrade for fantasy purposes.  Cassel undoubtedly had his problems, but Bowe always got his looks.  Smith represents little more upside, and is not always willing to take shots downfield.

Conclusion:  Personality concerns are what prevented the Chiefs from giving Bowe the long-term deal he desired last season – this suggests a possible decline in production, but last year he only finished as the #39 receiving option in average PPG – it’s hard to believe he’ll fall that far in league rankings again.

Greg Jennings, WR MIN

Contract:  5 years – $45 million ($17.8 million guaranteed)

Consistency:  Before last year’s injury riddled season, Greg Jennings was the quintessential example for consistency.  In three of the last five seasons, Jennings has hit the 1,000-yard mark and missed in the other two years due to shortened seasons.  The problem here lies in the fact that nearly half of his seasons mentioned have been reduced due to injury.

Personality:  No personality red flags to speak of.  The closest Jennings has been to a crime scene was likely in his guest appearance on Criminal Minds.

Situational Factors:  The 2012 season was really the outlier in production as he was actually found outside of the top 30 wide receivers in fantasy PPG.  Randall Cobb fully emerged and he, along with teammates Jordy Nelson and James Jones, all finished in the top 30 ranked receivers in fantasy.  Going to Minnesota may come with a huge downgrade at quarterback, but he will also be the number one target in an offense that just lost Percy Harvin.

Conclusion:  If Jennings can remain healthy, it shouldn’t be too hard for him to out-produce last season.  He automatically becomes the number one option in the passing game in offense and will face far less competition for targets than he did in Green Bay.  It would be a pretty heavy disappointment if Jennings couldn’t top the 6.7 fantasy PPG average from the 2012 season.

Danny Amendola, WR NE

Contract:  5 years – $28.5 million ($10 million guaranteed)

Consistency:  The most consistency Danny Amendola has had is in the injury department.  He hasn’t had much of a chance to prove his production can be regularly achieved because he just simply hasn’t been able to stay on the field.

Personality:  Stand up guy without distraction issues.  Just vowed to donate $100 for every catch and $200 for every drop to a Boston Marathon relief fund.  Just Saying.

Situational Factors:  Replacing Wes Welker in potentially the highest up-tempo offense in the league.  A quarterback switch from Sam Bradford to Tom Brady is no minor upgrade.

Conclusion:  The twist in this case is after the 2014 season only a small portion of his salary is guaranteed.  In recent years more than ever, coach Bill Belichick has proven no one is truly safe on the roster outside Brady.  As such, there’s hardly much job security in this contract, which will force him to stay motivated.  Furthermore, the quarterback upgrade from Bradford to Brady is substantial, and he’s filling a role that has put up huge numbers in the past.  Coming off of a mediocre season, it shouldn’t be too hard for Amendola to beat last year’s fantasy production under the rather bold presumption he’s able to stay healthy.

Brian Hartline, WR MIA

Contract:  5 years – $30.775 million ($12.5 million guaranteed)

Consistency:  Brian Hartline has achieved anything but consistent production in his early career.  Last year was the first season he strung together any type of consistent role in the offense.  Prior to that he averaged just about 36 receptions and 550 yards.  The 2012 season was a major outlier in his career.

Personality:  No red flags I could find.  Not a high-maintenance player at all.  He seems to be a hard worker as evidenced by interviewing coach Joe Philbin, asking what his coach is doing to get better before signing a contract to stay in Miami.

Situational Factors:  Last year he emerged as the Dolphins leading receiver.  He may have received a big contract this off-season, but the signing of free agents Mike Wallace and tight end Dustin Keller will likely spread the targets a bit thin.

Conclusion:  Hartline fits the bill of a player whose production should slide next season.  He has yet to prove he can repeat last year’s spike in production, and next year’s team will have more receiving threats to compete with.  Tannehill is improving, but has yet to show he can support multiple fantasy weapons in an offense likely featuring Mike Wallace. Hartline did well for himself this offseason by inking a contract worth about $6 million annually.

Keep your eye on these Players

Last year, I wrote this article a bit later in the off-season, and thus included a contract dispute as a primary factor in determining the players’ outlooks for the upcoming season.  The reason to be concerned about players involved in a dispute is the potential for a holdout.  Preseason can be a critical time to get into game shape, develop team chemistry and, if necessary, learn a new offense.  Any players who miss preseason action can put themselves at a disadvantage for the upcoming season and is more likely to face a decrease in fantasy production.

All the players included in this year’s analysis have already received contracts, and thus are not at risk for missing any time.  However, there are still some unresolved contracts for the 2013 season.  Players like Victor Cruz, Jay Cutler and Eric Decker have all been rumored to be considering camp holdouts.  Whether these players are being forced to play under a one-year deal, have leverage entering the season or are simply feeling under-appreciated, missing preseason action is a distinct possibility and their situations should be closely monitored.

Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisR124