Dynasty Stock Market: Hyper/Active Rookie ADP

Ryan McDowell Posted On May 16, 2013

As some of you may know, in addition to my position as a Senior Writer here at DLF, my other primary responsibility in the world of dynasty football is being the commissioner of the five Hyper/Active dynasty leagues. The leagues are designed to match the most active dynasty owners around, which often includes fantasy writers from DLF, FootballGuys, ProFootballFocus and many other sites.

Each Hyper/Active league is made up of 24 teams divided into two twelve team conferences. These conferences are essentially treated as separate leagues and therefore each league has two unique rookie drafts. That means, since April 28, there have been ten Hyper/Active rookie drafts. I have collected the data from each draft and have that to share with you today. We’ll take a look a round at a time.

Round One

Pick	Name	ADP of H/A Leagues
1.01	Tavon Austin	1.8
1.02	Giovani Bernard	2.2
1.03	Cordarrelle Patterson	3.1
1.04	DeAndre Hopkins	4.4
1.05	Eddie Lacy	5.3
1.06	Le’Veon Bell	6
1.07	Tyler Eifert	7.7
1.08	Montee Ball	8.2
1.09	Justin Hunter	9.4
1.10	Keenan Allen	10.2
1.11	Marcus Lattimore	10.2
1.12	Johnathan Franklin	12

If you followed or participated in any rookie drafts this season, you already know the order of players chosen is far from set in stone, as it is in other years. In fact, this is the first time I can recall a draft being this wide open. Some things have become fairly solidified, though. Rams wide receiver Tavon Austin and Bengals running back Giovani Bernard are almost always near the top of draft boards, and this is true of the Hyper/Active leagues as those are the top two players. With that said, every dynasty owner seems to have a favorite, and other players such as Cordarrelle Patterson, Le’Veon Bell or DeAndre Hopkins could come off as the 1.01 pick as well. The lesson there is don’t assume anything and grab the player you like. If Patterson is the player you believe in, don’t bother to move down just to gain a pick upgrade in a later round. If you try it, there’s a good chance you’ll lose your target.

Much has been said about the players at the top of this list, but some of the later first round picks are very intriguing. After tight end Tyler Eifert was chosen by the Cincinnati Bengals to provide veteran Jermaine Gresham with some competition, many thought his value was gone. Instead, he ranks as the seventh player among all rookies and was chosen in these drafts as high as 1.03 (on two separate occasions). This is a sign that many owners expect Eifert’s talent to win out, despite a less than desirable landing spot. Another player who some may be surprised to see as a first round pick is injured running back Marcus Lattimore. Lattimore was a slam dunk choice for the 1.01 pick before he suffered the horrific knee injury. Despite that, he has maintained his status as a first round rookie pick – that speaks to the lack of star power in this rookie class. Don’t expect much this year, but Lattimore is clearly among the most talented players in the draft. Finally, Packers running back Johnathan Franklin was getting some buzz as a possible choice of some at 1.01, but that was before the Packers chose him after they had already drafted Eddie Lacy. There has been much debate about which runner will be the better fit in Green Bay and the better fantasy option. Regardless, grabbing a player at the end of the first round who was just days before considered a possible top overall rookie pick screams value.

Round Two

Pick	Name	ADP of H/A Leagues
2.01	Christine Michael	13.7
2.02	Robert Woods	14.6
2.03	Markus Wheaton	14.7
2.04	Zac Stacy	15.4
2.05	Aaron Dobson	17.3
2.06	EJ Manuel	19.2
2.07	Da’Rick Rogers	21.1
2.08	Stedman Bailey	23.2
2.09	Travis Kelce	23.5
2.10	Quinton Patton	23.6
2.11	Geno Smith	24.2
2.12	Josh Boyce	24.3

What this rookie class lacks in star power, it makes up for in depth. With an early or mid second round pick, you have a chance to grab a player who is routinely being selected in the first round. The first five players on this second round list were chosen in the first round of at least one Hyper/Active rookie draft.

Conversely, the deeper you get in any draft, the more risk you will find. The player who stands out when the term risk is discussed is Buffalo Bills wide receiver Da’Rick Rogers. Teams were so concerned about Rogers attitude and off field issues that he went undrafted. The Bills quickly signed him and most dynasty owners seem content with spending a second round pick on the talented wideout.

Round Three

Pick	Name	ADP of H/A Leagues
3.01	Zach Ertz	24.6
3.02	Terrance Williams	25.5
3.03	Jordan Reed	27.7
3.04	Latavius Murray	28.9
3.05	Joseph Randle	29.2
3.06	Andre Ellington	31.1
3.07	Mike Gillislee	31.4
3.08	Knile Davis	33
3.09	Chris Harper	33.7
3.10	Charles Johnson	34.3
3.11	Matt Barkley	35
3.12	Gavin Escobar	37.2

By the third round, we start seeing a little bit of separation between players and also find some players already attracting the “sleeper” label. Specifically, there has been a lot of buzz about Latavius Murray, Chris Harper and Charles Johnson. For only a third round pick, all seem worth the risk. If you need a backup tight end, the third round is the place to look. Both Zach Ertz and Jordan Reed could end up starting for their NFL East teams. Finally, the third round looks like a chance to handcuff your starting running back. Along with Murray (Darren McFadden), the potential backups for DeMarco Murray, Jamaal Charles and Lamar Miller are all going off the board in the third round.

Round Four

Pick	Name	ADP of H/A Leagues
4.01	Kenny Stills	37.5
4.02	Denard Robinson	38.2
4.03	Stepfan Taylor	40.1
4.04	Marquess Wilson	40.2
4.05	Ryan Swope	41.3
4.06	Marquise Goodwin	43.3
4.07	Aaron Mellette	44.2
4.08	Vance McDonald	45
4.09	Kerwynn Williams	45.6
4.10	Corey Fuller	45.8
4.11	Kenjon Barner	46.6
4.12	Ryan Nassib	46.7

Round Five

Pick	Name	ADP of H/A Leagues
5.01	Mark Harrison	47
5.02	Tyler Wilson	47.2
5.03	Tavarres King	47.3
5.04	Cierre Wood	47.4
5.05	Chris Thompson	47.9
5.06	Jawan Jamison	48.1
5.07	Eric Rogers	48.6
5.08	Cobi Hamilton	48.7
5.09	Rex Burkhead	48.7
5.10	Spencer Ware	48.7
5.11	Luke Wilson	48.8
5.12	Dion Sims	48.9

Although the Hyper/Active drafts are only four rounds in length, there were so many rookies drafted that I included five rounds worth of players. I never want to assume these late round are not important. After all, in recent drafts, players like TY Hilton, Russell Wilson, Mike Wallace and many more have been chosen in the fourth round. The first challenge is identifying the players who could provide that type of value this season, but another challenge is managing your roster well enough to see that pick through. I was reminded of that lesson the hard way a year ago. I drafted Hilton in multiple Hyper/Active leagues using a fourth round pick, but he did not last long on my roster as I failed to trust my initial evaluation. There is always a lot of hype of almost every player during the off-season. That sometimes needs to be ignored as we recall what we liked about the player that led to the draft pick in the first place.

For the record, some of the late round picks I would target this year are Tyler Wilson, Kenny Stills and Marquess Wilson.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.