Contract of Diminishing Returns, Part Two: 2013 Outlook for Quarterbacks, Running Backs and Tight Ends

In the first installment of this series, I examined the effect of landing a large contract with heavy salary guarantees on a player’s production and subsequent fantasy output.  In my findings from the last two years, 76.5% of players rewarded with such contracts responded with less fantasy production in the following year.

As a follow-up of this examination, I will provide my outlook for the 2013 contract year players.  Based on the relative accuracy of my data, I will use similar parameters to determine what we can expect in 2013 from players who just signed major deals this off-season.

The first factor is consistency.  Consistency is an important factor in distinguishing if a player has proven they can maintain a high level of play even in non-contract years.  If a player‘s previous season jumps off the page, it is more likely to reflect a player who is fighting for a payday.

Personality red flags are important because they can help determine if a player can continue to stay focused, or rather have had motivational concerns.  If their history suggests behavioral problems, perhaps a not-so-unpredictable incident could result in team or league discipline and potentially decrease their production because they are forced to miss playing time.

The final parameter is situational factors.  This could be the team’s offensive play style, competition for playing time and potentially how other players on the team may affect their output.  Each player’s situation is different so it is important to consider the other variables at play.

From my previous findings, it was evident quarterbacks and running backs had the greatest probability to experience a statistical downfall.  Those who did also faced an amplified decrease in fantasy production on average.  Without further delay, let’s examine the outlook for non-receivers who landed long-term contracts in the 2013 off-season.

Joe Flacco, QB BAL

Contract:  6 years – $120.6 million ($52 million guaranteed)

Consistency:  After entering the league in 2008 as a first round draft choice, Joe Flacco has been about as consistent as possible in his NFL career.  Each season he has passed for about 3,700 yards, 20 touchdowns and ten interceptions.

Personality:  No motivational concerns.  In fact, Flacco was initially seeking a deal last off-season, but when the two sides weren’t close, he didn’t complain at all.  Rather, he simply said something to the tune of (and I’m paraphrasing): “No problem.  I will prove myself, watch and see.”  This is also the guy who was prepared to make an illegal tackle from the sidelines in the final seconds of the Super Bowl had Ted Ginn Jr. broke free for the end zone.

Situational Factors:  In 2013, a deciding factor counting against Flacco is his receiving core has a major hole following the trade of Anquan Boldin – this could be a major factor in the offense if third year pro Torrey Smith isn’t able to step up to the task and develop into more than just a deep threat.

Conclusion:  I think it would be accurate to say he earned his paycheck from his Super Bowl victory and previous playoff success rather than his stats sheet. How can you argue against that?

Flacco’s consistency and competitive nature are among the best.  Every year he has been a stable producer at the NFL level.  The problem is these numbers just aren’t very impressive.  He hasn’t been able to produce QB1 numbers in his career and in 2012, he finished as fantasy’s fourteenth ranked quarterback.  He’s a reliable bye-week filler, but as far as 2013 is concerned, the loss of Boldin may prove to be too much.  As a player, he just got the two most sought after things – a Super Bowl ring and crazy, crazy money.  It’s not unreasonable to wonder what a player has left to achieve after making it to the top.

Tony Romo, QB DAL

Contract:  7 years – $119.5 million ($55 million guaranteed)

Consistency:  Over the years, Tony Romo’s production has varied quite a bit.  He has maintained QB1 production when healthy, but his consistency still has some to be desired.  Last year he finished with nearly 5,000 passing yards (a career high) and a near high in touchdown passes.

Personality:  The only thing longer than Romo’s playoff losing streak is his dating record.  The extent of his off-field distractions is limited to the time he went on a beach vacation in Mexico with his ex-girlfriend, Jessica Simpson, prior to a playoff game.  Can you really blame him?

Situational Factors:  He has a great cast of offensive skilled players who are all returning for another season.

Conclusion:  This year, Romo’s stats jumped off the page, which doesn’t bode well for next year’s production given the trend for quarterbacks.  In 2012, he finished as fantasy’s sixth ranked quarterback.  It will be difficult to repeat this in 2013 as many young quarterbacks are expected to take a step forward.  I expect decreases across the board.

Aaron Rodgers, QB GB

Contract:  7 years – $130.75 million ($54 million guaranteed)

Consistency:  Since becoming starter for the Packers, Aaron Rodgers has been a consistent QB1 in fantasy leagues.  The last two years have seen a spike in production, as he has averaged 42 touchdowns and 7 interceptions.

Personality:  Definitely has a strong competitive spirit.  Ever since he was skipped over in the 2005 NFL Draft, he has had a chip on his shoulder and he will likely carry it throughout his career.

Situational Factors:  Okay, he may have lost Greg Jennings, but I say, “so what?”  The Packers have arguably the deepest wide receiving core in the league and have plenty of weapons for Rodgers to target.  With the full emergence of Randall Cobb, the truth is the Packers just didn’t need Jennings.

Conclusion:  While he has proven his spike in production wasn’t a one-hit-wonder, and he is quite capable of doing it again, it’s hard to expect anyone to throw 40 touchdowns each and every season (not to mention keep single digit interceptions).  While I still expect him to be an elite producer, a minor drop in fantasy production would only be a reversion to the mean.

Reggie Bush, RB DET

Contract:  4 years – $16 million ($4 million guaranteed)

Consistency:  Reggie Bush’s two years in Miami represented his first opportunity as a lead back.  In those two years, he showed similar outputs, though it is not enough evidence to say he has produced under contract security.

Personality:  Only red flags were the illegal benefits he received as a college player – this came to light after being in the NFL and led to the voluntary relinquishment of his Heisman Trophy.  I would call this a non-factor.

Situational Factors:  Bush will be joining the Detroit Lions in 2013.  This could potentially be a great fit for him, and he should be used quite a bit in the passing game.  The coaching staff vowed he would be given lead back duties and could be a huge part of a dynamic offense.  Mikel LeShoure will likely eat into Bush’s workload load a bit, particularly in the red zone.

Conclusion:  Bush didn’t set the bar too high for a repeat, but he hasn’t yet proven consistency in my eyes.  I believe LeShoure is a far greater threat to his workload than Daniel Thomas was in Miami, which ultimately could lead to a decrease in production.

Jared Cook, TE STL

Contract:  5 years – $35 million ($19 million guaranteed)

Consistency:  Jared Cook is a young player who has yet to achieve consistency.  He had the starting gig in Tennessee and a decent amount of targets over the last two seasons, but his average PPG put him squarely in TE2 territory.

Personality:  No off-field problems I am aware of, but worth noting is his trade request early last season.  He was quite frustrated with the offensive scheme and his usage.  This may not be a major red flag, but it does show his potential to become distracted.

Situational Factors:  There may be no other team that has acquired as many new potential offensive weapons as the Rams.  While this is certainly huge for Sam Bradford, it seems possible Cook finds himself in a similar frustrating situation where he has too much competition for targets.

Conclusion:  Long considered a top tight end prospect expecting a breakout season, Cook has yet to be fully utilized in an offense.  He has plenty of upside, and 2012’s numbers are far from overwhelming, but for now Cook is still a TE2 who was given TE1 money.

Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisR124.