Post-Draft Rookie Valuation and Notes

Jeff Haverlack

rookies

The draft has come and gone and rookie camps are getting under way around the NFL.  Even more exciting is that new start-up dynasty drafts (as well as rookie drafts) are underway as well.  Below you’ll find my brief report on what I’m seeing in these drafts, from around the league and anything else that seems somewhat relevant in regards to the 2013 rookie class.

Here at DLF we’ve kicked off two new DLF Dynasty leagues, one of the IDP variety and one of the non-IDP variety.  If you have already listened to our most recent DLF Dynasty Podcast, hosted by Ken Kelly and myself, some of this information will be rather redundant as we covered some of the information there.  However, I will be touching on some news and notes items not covered in the show as well.

Without rehashing that which I’ve droned on about in depth already, the lack of top tier talent is playing out just as I expected in drafts thus far.  Tavon Austin has been chosen anywhere from rookie pick 1.01 to 1.06.  In a new start-up, I’m seeing him taken beginning in round five – this goes to show that even in rookie drafts, valuations are all over the board in 2013.  More than any other year in the recent past, it seems team need will be the primary determining factor as to where to draft a rookie, as opposed to the usual marquee value that normally defines the top spots –   that’s not a bad thing and it will make for a very interesting exercise in three years when we look back upon the 2013 class.

Giovani Bernard, the rookie running back for the Bengals is coming off the board as early as 1.01, or as late as 1.05, in rookie drafts.  Even more surprising is that in new start-up drafts, Bernard is going off the board in the third round.  This is far too early in my mind, but I do applaud the aggressive nature or conviction of a selecting coach willing to go out on a limb this early for an unproven rookie who is a fair measure from being elite.

Somewhat unsurprisingly, Eddie Lacy and Cordarrelle Patterson are leaving the board in new start-up drafts in rounds six through eight.  In new rookie drafts, it seems Patterson still has the edge over fellow receiver DeAndre Hopkins.  I’ve seen Hopkins listed above Patterson on many boards (including my own), yet Patterson still seems to be the more attractive choice in drafts at this early date.  If you are drafting Lacy high in the first round, you need to do what you can to secure Johnathan Franklin as well.  It’s not sexy to do, but it must be done this year.  Medical reports on Lacy have not been favorable and a fused toe following his most recent surgery doesn’t bode well for the long term.  For the record, Franklin appears to be going off the board near the end of the first round in a twelve team league.

Any way you slice it, once Le’Veon Bell and Montee Ball are added to the mix, you have a seven-deep rookie first tier.  I say “first tier” only as an indication of value in the 2013 draft alone, not as a talent assessment overall when compared to more traditional drafts.  And not to leave out Bell, I have witnessed drafts with him as the 1.01 selection.  There is a strong indication that fantasy coaches love his situation perhaps even more than they do his talent.  Montee Ball has a high water mark of 1.02, but I won’t be surprised to hear reports of a 1.01 handle on the prolific college back.  The popular choice for Ball appears to be at 1.03 or 1.04.

The love affair with Tyler Eifert is seemingly still in full bloom as he was selected at 6.09 in one DLF draft.  This early selection for a time-sharing rookie tight end who has yet to catch a pass in the NFL is more than bold in my book, but again illustrates the varying opinions on the bulk of these rookies.

The rehabbing Marcus Lattimore continues to get play in new drafts, coming off the board as early as the ninth round – relatively strong value for a back coming off arguably the most horrific leg injury in the last decade.  In rookie drafts, I’ve seen Lattimore as early as 1.03 and 1.04 in more extreme cases.  More often, he’s coming off the board at 1.09, give or take a pick or two.

In new drafts, rounds nine and ten have been popular for the next tier of rookies.  If you’re looking to land a player from the second tier like Keenan Allen or Justin Hunter, you may want to consider a selection in the late eighth round, or early ninth, especially if you find yourself near the “turn” without a pick for nearly two rounds.  Wait too long and you’ll get stuck in what will be a very quick run once the first second tier name is called.

From the lower tier of rookies, a couple of names have started percolating.  Buffalo signed the loose-cannon that is Da’Rick Rogers.  Rogers has an extremely capable game, good size and speed but hasn’t packed lightly in the area of emotional baggage.  There’s little questioning his talent, but his head is another matter altogether.  Working in his favor is the fact he’s only 21 years of age.  A second name of note is none other than Oakland’s sixth round running back selection Latavius Murray.  He’s got an uphill battle with other young backs to leap frog, but tape on Murray is an easy watch and it’s easy to see what the Raiders have seen in the young back.  At 6’2″ and 223 lbs., he’s not small physically, nor does he run small and he’s worth a late flyer.  My money is still on  fellow back Jeremy Stewart, but the battle will be a good one.

When looking at news and notes from around the league, there hasn’t been an overwhelming amount of noteworthy data emerging.  That will change after all mini-camps get into full swing.  Until then, I have a few notes.

First, Jacksonville appears to be a continuing mess of a team.  After the four game suspension of Justin Blackmon and the growing belief that Blaine Gabbert will be under center come game one in September, there’s little left to be excited about.  Rookie selection  Denard Robinson, however, is quickly rising on rankings as the versatile player looks to line up at multiple positions.  His level of athleticism and versatility are too great to not get him onto the field.  Besides, what do they have to lose in 2013?  The Jaguars are likely vying for the top pick in 2014.

In Tennessee, all the talk seems to be about the lack of faith that the Titans have in Kenny Britt:  a) staying healthy or b)  Staying out of jail.  The Justin Hunter selection is a shot across the bow of Britt, who has a single year left on his contract, for better or worse.  For what it’s worth, teammates have been gushing about Britt’s off-season conditioning and he looks ready to go.   In the backfield, say goodbye to Jamie Harper who was released.

In Houston, the diminutive rookie Ray Graham is an interesting selection.  In fantasy, we’re seeing Graham go in the late fourth round of rookie drafts.  He’s a flyer.  And a small one at that. It looks like he’ll battle fellow rookie Cierre Wood for a valuable backup running back spot for the Texans.

Browns tight end Jordan Cameron appears to be the strong favorite to open the season as a starter.  Adjust your rankings accordingly.  I’ll be as well.

Keep an eye on receiver Aaron Mellette.  It seems that every year in Baltimore, there’s a new young receiver who has a chance.  Mellette is the 2013 version and while I don’t see enough to lead me to believe he’ll be a producer within the next three years, he is fun to watch on tape.  Considering the current Ravens receivers, anything is possible.

If you’re really looking for a tight end sleeper, turn no further than to Kansas City’s selection of Travis Kelce.  He’s a player and I believe he could very well open up as the starter ahead of Tony Moeaki.  He’s athletic and should be a good fit in the Andy Reid offense.

My choice for undervalued rookie is none other than Aaron Dobson in New England.  He has great speed, good hands and, best of all, is playing in a very mature offense that hasn’t had a consistent outside receiver in some time.  With a good running game and a dual All-Pro tight ends, Dobson could push for material impact in 2013.

If you’re looking for a draft wild card, this year’s primary candidate is Christine Michael.  Drafted by Pete Caroll simply because Michael was their highest rated player left on the board, he’s not likely to see the field trapped behind Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin.  However, don’t lose track of him as he has the type of NFL body and game to make the most of any opportunity.

From Atlanta, I’m starting to hear the name Levine Toilolo.  For those unfamiliar with Toilolo, he was a fourth round selection at tight end.  Don’t get your hopes up.  He’s far more an inline blocker with upside than he is a move tight end with inline ability.  He’s worth a flyer in case I’m wrong, but I think it’s a serious mismatch.

That’s all for now.

Draft well!

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jeff haverlack