Contract of Diminishing Returns, Part One: Analysis of 2012 Contract Players

Around this time last year, I wrote an article exploring contract year players.  I wanted to determine the effect of landing a large contract with heavy salary guarantees on a player’s production and subsequent fantasy output.  To do this, I looked at a variety of factors from the previous year’s contract players and their production over this period of time.  From this data I created a set of parameters to help predict future production from the 2012 contract players.

I hypothesized most players who received a large contract with guaranteed money would experience a drastic drop in production.  This was in part due to the motivation of most being in the final year of a contract to perform well, and subsequently because this driving force was removed once they were rewarded with a fat paycheck.

In part one, I will analyze my theory by testing my parameters and predictions from last year’s article.  I think we should all be held accountable for our predictions, no matter how bold or mainstream, so I will do my best to maintain a non-biased stance.  As such, like last year, I will use the numbers and direct fantasy production as my primary indicator of success.  For the purpose of this study I used the exact same scoring system (and the same league, in fact) so you can look back on last year’s article and directly compare statistics and fantasy production.

Drew Brees

Percent Change in Fantasy Production per Game:  -8.0%

My prediction was pretty on target here.  Drew Brees was still a dominant force and remained fantasy’s number one overall quarterback in 2013.

There were no factors suggesting he couldn’t repeat stellar production, but I suggested a slight decrease should be expected following a career year in which he broke Dan Marino’s single season passing record.  No surprises here.

Rob Gronkowski

Percent Change in Fantasy Production per Game:  -6.4%

I had a similar prediction for tight end Rob Gronkowski as for Brees.  Gronk’s overall fantasy points per game did drop, but only slightly. I was actually expecting a bit more drastic drop-off after performing at an unimaginable level in 2011.

Before crunching the numbers, I had the perception Gronk’s production fell significantly.  His forearm injury certainly contributed to this, but the reality was his fantasy points per game decreased by less than 5% and he defended his title as the number one tight end in fantasy when healthy.  He still averaged one touchdown per game over the course of 11 weeks.  Talk about consistent domination.

Calvin Johnson

Percent Change in Fantasy Production per Game:  +4.4%

I mentioned Calvin Johnson reflects the exact mold of a player you’d want on your team.  He had zero red flags, but because of his unworldly production I said there was “nowhere to go but down.”

Boy, was I wrong.

He responded by not only setting career highs, but also trumping Jerry Rice’s single season record for receiving yards.  In doing so, he recorded 27% more receptions than in the 2011 season.  It was surprising to see his touchdown total decrease so significantly, which was the only thing preventing him from completely taking the top off fantasy leagues.

DeSean Jackson

Percent Change in Fantasy Production per Game:  -3.9%

I’ll admit, my outlook on DeSean Jackson was a bit mixed.  It was hard not to be, as he remains one of the biggest boom or bust players in the league.  Combine his high level of upside and big play potential with a sea of red flags and anyone is susceptible to some confusion.

The unbiased prediction based on the factors I analyzed suggested Jackson is the complete opposite type of player a team should provide with a long-term contract full of guaranteed money.  That seemed to be the appropriate indicator if you compare his per game production between seasons.  It didn’t decrease significantly, but it was enough to drop his positional rank from the WR31 to the WR43, which is well beyond a viable FLEX play in most leagues.  Due to inconsistencies and injuries, Jackson proved to be a letdown, despite some analysts predictions a contract would allow him to “just play football” and no longer worry about the money.

Marshawn Lynch

Percent Change in Fantasy Production per Game:  +5.1%

There were some red flags in Marshawn Lynch’s behavioral history, which led to me to predict him as an “obvious” candidate to decrease in production after getting a large paycheck.

Lynch, however, was the second player to bite the contract bullet.  He followed up his 2011 breakout season with increases in almost every statistic across the board.  I first looked to his workload as a factor that might misconstrue information, but the truth is he also boosted his yards per carry average almost a full point to 5.0 YPC.  His fantasy points per game increased almost a full point as well despite less total touchdowns.

Matt Forte

Percent Change in Fantasy Production per Game:  -20.9%

My set of parameters and subsequent predictions were right on with Matt Forte.  After a camp holdout, previous inconsistencies and steady yearly drop-offs continued into the 2012 season.  Even after playing in three extra games in the 2012 season, he produced fewer overall fantasy points than in the previous year.  He experienced nearly a 21% decrease in fantasy points per game, which was enough to significantly knock his positional rank.

Ray Rice

Percent Change in Fantasy Production per Game:  -16.4%

Based on personality factors and previous consistencies, I thought Ray Rice had the potential for keeping the title as fantasy’s top running back.  The one thing I suggested might drop was his touchdown total due to a heavy spike in 2011 relative to previous years.  This proved to be true, as Rice realized a 33% decrease in this statistic.

What I was unable to predict was Bernard Pierce’s moderately heavy usage during his rookie campaign.  This was certainly a factor, for it significantly decreased Rice’s workload in the 2012 season, and thus his output.  He may have finished as fantasy football’s fourth top running back, but he showed a 16.4% drop in overall fantasy production.

Arian Foster

Percent Change in Fantasy Production per Game:  -18.6%

In an unusual case, Arian Foster is a guy who followed the pattern of decreasing fantasy output and I predicted the opposite.  It would have been difficult to top his fantasy points per game from 2011, but due to three missed contests, he certainly had the potential to score more over the course of a full 16-game season.

Foster’s 2012 season showed an alarming pattern.  His number of touches hit a career high, though his actual production decreased significantly.  He had 200 fewer yards from scrimmage as his yards per carry average dropped to a career low.  Foster became very much reliant on a high number of carries and red zone opportunities to keep his status as a top producer.  While his positional rank may have only dropped one spot, he failed to produce more fantasy points than last season even in three extra games played.  His fantasy points per game fell over four full points resulting in a -18.6% in production.

Overall Numbers Analysis

While there is some variation between players’ production after receiving a long-term contract, some overall trends are apparent:

• 76.5% of the players analyzed from the 2011 and 2012 seasons experienced a statistical downfall.
• In 2012, six of eight players experienced a decrease in production
• In 2011, seven of nine players experienced a decrease in production
• The few who were actually were able to increase their production did so at a very minimal level.

In Summation, there is a good chance production is going to fall, and if they do somehow escape the clutch of this effect, the upside is minimal

Of the players who experienced a decline in the 2011 and 2012 seasons, the average production lost was -15.6%.

This is the breakdown by position:

Trends

• QBs and RBs were both the most likely to be experience a production downfall and their decline was the most drastic
• Wide Receivers were the most likely to evade the decrease in production associated with landing a big contract
• Aside from the TE position (solely represented by Rob Gronkowski), there wasn’t much deviation between the position and the average percent decrease in production

Conclusion

The findings from both classes were overall both consistent and significant.  While I admit the criteria I used to predict last year’s class is far from an exact formula, it was certainly useful in shedding some light for what to expect in the coming year. Parts two and three of this study will use similar criteria as last year to predict 2013’s big contract players.

Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisR124.