Over/Under: Sam Bradford

Eric Olinger

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After a brief hiatus to focus on all the NFL Draft happenings, I’m back with another installment of “Over/Under,” where I highlight a player and determine some projections based on past tendencies, then state whether I think they will go “over or under.” Projection criteria will be different for each player based on position and situation.

This week’s debate will focus on quarterback Sam Bradford of the St. Louis Rams who has had quite the off-season. The Rams were unable to re-sign long time running back Steven Jackson after he voided the final year of his contract and then signed with the Atlanta Falcons. They signed former Titans Tight End Jared Cook to play tight end.

They then went into the draft on a mission to surround Bradford with serious weapons.

It was heavily rumored they were targeting West Virginia’s Tavon Austin and those rumors proved true very quickly when the Rams traded up with the Buffalo Bills to secure him. Two rounds later, they reunited Austin with college teammate, wide receiver Stedman Bailey. They also added guard/center Barrett Jones from Alabama; anyone that saw the BCS National Championship game saw what kind of intense player he is and running back Zac Stacy from Vanderbilt. When you add these players to Chris Givens, Brian Quick, Isaiah Pead, and Daryl Richardson, it’s easy to see the Rams are serious about building a contender and expectations will reflect that. This is easily the strongest roster Bradford has had since entering the league.

Being drafted number one overall comes with a very unique (often unrealistic) set of expectations. You are expected to come in on day one and turn a franchise around. There is no learning curve, you don’t get to sit, and if you don’t come screaming out of the gate, you get labeled a bust or overrated. Nobody wants to look deeper than the surface. This will be the first time in Bradford’s career he will have the same offensive coordinator longer than one season. In 2010 Pat Shurmur ran the offense, Josh McDaniels in 2011 and 2012-present has been Brian Schottenheimer. With a young developing quarterback, consistency is the best thing you can offer him and he finally has it.

We’re going to set the line for Bradford at 4,200 yards passing and 30 touchdowns.

On the way to winning the 2010 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, Sam Bradford set two NFL records – most consecutive passes without an interception by a rookie (169) and most completions by a rookie quarterback (354). He threw for 3,512 yards, 18 touchdowns and 15 interceptions while starting all 16 games. 2011 wasn’t as friendly, he played in just ten games and had as many interceptions as touchdowns with six.

The most encouraging sign was how he bounced back in 2012. Bradford set career highs in yardage (3,702), yards per attempt (6.72) and touchdowns (21). The passing game evolved throughout the season. It started with Brandon Gibson and Danny Amendola, but then rookie Chris Givens stepped up and added another dimension to the offense. The Rams are also developing the big bodied second year receiver Brian Quick from Appalachian State to hopefully complete their overhauled arsenal.

Now you add the electric Austin (whose skills very strongly resembles Randall Cobb and Percy Harvin), Stedman Bailey and Jared Cook while shifting the team’s focus from the run game to more of the “Greatest Show on Turf” days of the Kurt Warner era.

With 11 quarterbacks reaching the 4,000 yard mark in 2012, it’s not hard to see Bradford setting a new career high in passing yards. Barring injury, I don’t see how Bradford won’t easily pass the 4,000 yard mark. There are so many average quarterbacks hitting the mark now, it would be an upset if he doesn’t.

The touchdown mark will be a little more difficult to hit. Only five quarterbacks hit 30 touchdowns last year – Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. When you look at how he fared in the six games against the NFC West opponents last year, he threw for seven of his 21 touchdowns, and 1,315 of his 3,702 yards. Against the strongest defensive division in football, Bradford actually performed slightly better than against the rest of the league. Based on that, I believe Bradford will take the next step in his evolution and hit the 30 touchdown mark. Steven Jackson hasn’t been a goal line vulture recently, but without him around, the offense will go through Bradford.

Bradford isn’t considered an elite option in fantasy leagues right now, but he has the exact same opportunity Matt Ryan has had the last two years and he’ll be available even later. According to Ryan McDowell’s (@RyanMc23) off-season ADP data, Bradford is being taken as the QB21 with an ADP of 169.17 – that’s the 15th round of a 12 team league. If you wait to draft your quarterback and get stuck with an inconsistent guy like Eli Manning or Ben Roethlisberger or draft a “read option” quarterback susceptible to hits like Colin Kaepernick or Russell Wilson, or want to get your hands on RGIII who might not be ready for week one, Bradford is a great low risk, low investment option who could pay huge dividends.

What are your expectations for Sam Bradford in 2013? Will he go “Over/Under” 4,200 yards passing and 30 touchdowns? As always, tell me what you think in the comments section below.

Let the debate begin…

eric olinger
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