The dynasty value of a player can change at a moment’s notice throughout the regular season or even the off-season. This is especially true during the last weekend in April when the annual NFL draft is held in New York City. This year was no different as we witness many draft picks throughout the draft who will have a great impact on the value of not only the incoming rookies, but also the veterans who are already a part of teams. Let’s take a look at some of the specific players whose value might be on the rise or on the decline as a result of a draft pick on day two of the draft, the second and third rounds.
The Pick: Justin Hunter, WR TEN (2.02)
Justin Hunter gets to stay close to his college town as the Tennessee Titans made him the first offensive skill player chosen on the second day of the draft at pick #34 overall. This was somewhat of a surprise as the Titans had many holes to address, but were considered (from an outsider’s perspective) to be in good shape wt the wide receiver position with Kenny Britt, Kendall Wright and veteran Nate Washington.
The Winner: Jake Locker, QB TEN
As is often the case when a team adds an explosive playmaker on offense, the quarterback can be considered the early winner. Â That is true here, but this move could also serve as the beginning of the end for quarterback Jake Locker. Locker has had an up and down two seasons in Nashville and there is already talk of the team adding a quarterback in what is expected to be a deep rookie class in 2014. If Locker cannot succeed with three wide receivers like he has now, the Titans brass may decide to move on.
The Loser: Kenny Britt, WR TEN
While you may or may not agree the addition of Hunter was intended as a wake up call for Locker, it is hard to argue the move was made in part to shake troubled wide receiver Kenny Britt back into an elite player, on and off the field. Britt started the 2011 season looking like one of the top wideouts in the game before suffering an ACL injury that cost him the remainder of the season. He has had repeated troubles with the law, most often in his home state of New Jersey, and last season it seemed that he was just going through the motions. Reportedly, he was hampered by injuries all season, but the marks are starting to add up in the negative column for the Titans, and they should be for dynasty owners as well.
The Pick: Giovani Bernard, RB CIN (2.05)
The Bengals had been linked to University of North Carolina running back Giovani Bernard for what felt like months, and in the second round, we saw that come to fruition as Cincinnati spent their second round pick on the back.
The Loser: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB CIN
Most of us saw this coming from a mile away. Although the Bengals just signed running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis a year ago and he enjoyed a very productive 1,000 yard season, the writing was on the wall that he was not enough. So many contending teams now employ a two back system and the Bengals simply had no other options behind the Law Firm. Expect him to remain the starter entering the season, but Bernard’s talent, youth and high draft pedigree to win out in the end. Green-Ellis is just not a player you want to own in dynasty right now.
The Pick: Geno Smith, QB NYJ (2.07)
High profile quarterback Geno Smith sat and observed the entire first round on Thursday night without hearing his name called. He returned Friday evening and still had to wait until the Jets snagged him as the seventh pick of day two. For some reason, this pick caused a lot of controversy, despite it being clear that the team needed a makeover at the quarterback position.
The Winner: Stephen Hill, WR NYJ
I would peg sophomore wide receiver Stephen Hill as the winner in this scenario not only because of the hope for improved quarterback play that comes in Smith, but also the fact that the Jets added no wide receivers through the entirety of draft weekend. The team lost tight end Dustin Keller and enter the season with Hill, Santonio Holmes and Jeremy Kerley as their primary pass catchers. Expect Hill to earn an increased role in the offense. He’s a player to buy in dynasty leagues.
The Loser: Mark Sanchez, QB NYJ
Another easy and obvious loser with this pick is former Jets first round pick quarterback Mark Sanchez. While we are not yet sure of the opening week starter for the Jets, it is safe to assume the pressure is on Sanchez like never before. There have also been rumors the Jets could take the huge cap hit in order to release Sanchez altogether. In case you needed another reason to place no value on Sanchez, this is it.
The Pick: Monte Ball, RB DEN
The workhorse running back from the University of Wisconsin was selected by the Denver Broncos near the end of the second round, ahead of the higher ranked Eddie Lacy. The Broncos were another team strongly rumored to add a running back through the draft, despite having a trio of Knowshon Moreno, Willis McGahee and Ronnie Hillman.
The Loser: Knowshon Moreno/Willis McGahee, RBs DEN
While Hillman may still have a future in Denver as a third down back, the odds are not so good for the veteran pair of Moreno and McGahee. Moreno’s contract and the cap hit the Broncos would sustain should they choose to release him makes it likely that he will be in Denver for another season. McGahee, on the other hand, will probably be out of a job in the coming weeks. Both players enjoyed a solid stretch during the 2012 season. McGahee earned the starting nod and was racking up yards when he suffered a season ending MCL injury, as well as a broken leg. Moreno stepped in and his dynasty valued briefly boomed. Now, both have very limited value at all. Look for McGahee to land a role with a contender if he is let go by Denver.
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I really like these articles. My request is to expand them to include more players – we can always use more McDowell-ian insights!
The pick: Cordarrelle Patterson (1.29)
The winner: Christian Ponder
The loser: Jerome Simpson (wait…he was already a loser)
Probably right on that one. Any word on Jarius Wright? I picked him up when they were shopping Percy in hopes that he may take over that role as a slot receiver. I really want to hang onto this guy but I am maxed out with my roster and will need to make 8 cuts prior to the start of the season!
I think Jarius Wright is the biggest loser. But we’ll see how they plan to use Patterson. Wright was a sneaky play as the “Harvin replacement” late last season.
Not to mention G.Jennings who played a ton in the slot in GB and may take on that role in MIN. I dont necessarily think thats the P.Harvin role (and now Wrights role) considering how often they threw it to him out of the backfield, but Harvin (and later Wright when he replaced him) played the flanker and slot on all the other downs. so really its porbably Jennings who took most of Wrights value… at least the part where he’s lining up as a standard receiver
Indirectly, I still feel Wright has a role in 3 WR sets and as a gadget player out of the backfield and on returns. Its possible Wright carves out a niche, or even bigger role, but it def wont be the consistent snaps he had when at the end of last year. 2 big WR pickups will tend to do that to fringe talents.
Thanks Ryan,
any chance DEN lets go of Moreno over McGahee… he did have a better YPC and arguably better year than Moreno. Would the cap hit be significant for him, and be the determining factor. I just get the feeling they want to hold onto McGahee as the starter this year till Ball is ready (maybe even sign him cheaply as insurance next year). McGahee’s salary doesnt seem exorbitant at 2.5M (same as last year i believe)… and if they feel theyre getting the same player as last seasons, its possible
i have heard that moreno is 1.7 and mcgahee is 2.5. 28 vs 33? pcl strain vs mcl and broken leg……my bet would be moreno-ball-hillman…..and maybe mcgahee at about vet minimum after they cut him loose.
Per Rotoworld “Moreno is entering the final year of his rookie contract, and it carries a $3.28 million cap hit for 2013.”
… so it actually may be worse on then to cut Moreno, it appears.
Also of other note: as much as everyone has talked up Moreno’s late season resurgence, as he was fresh and playing well, he did only average 3.8 ypc last year. so its not like he played that well.
Again, i just feel its arguable that McGahee and Moreno are on the same playing field in the eyes of DEN. It’ll prob just come down to who practicing/playing better in camp with the loser of the competition leaving town. Either way both may be gone at this time next year, given if Ball does well. But if DEN indeed does wait on Ball and gives the winner of Moreno/McGahee competition the starting role… like last year that’ll be some substantial fantasy points. Ball will likely take over at some point im sure, but prob not early on in the season unless he lights up preseason. No way a competitor like DEN hands the keys to a rookie unless hes head and shoulders above
BTW.. McGahee is owed “a $2.5 million non-guaranteed base salary” so it looks like he prob is the underdog to hold onto a roster spot b/t the two, but it still will prob come down to camp performance.
i’m calling it here first…..we are on the cusp of seeing a new offensive style about to unfold. we’ve seen the patriots change the game with not only incorporating a 2 te system, but making it work and thrive. we are now ready for the next evolution of a 2 rb system that the packers are about to install. i predict they use both backs on the field at the same time along with a 3 wrs set. if you can throw to these guys out of the backfield and still have the capabilities to run the ball how much greater is that then even a 2 te system? that is why i believe the packers drafted franklin as well as lacy. their different styles of rbs but both can add hu8ge demensions to an already wide open offensive scheme. watch….i believe i’m right. i’ve been to countless practices in packer land and have seen glimpses of it last year but they didnt have the talent and health. now they do, and harris and green and starks add huge depth to lacy/franklin. get ready people for the next craze……rbs flying everywhere…..with 3 wrs.
I like your observation and prediction here… don’t know really what else to say just want to state the fact I like this post and hope you’re right and have given the rest of us an inside edge here
Kind of sounds like old school split back stuff where the WR even lined up in 3 point stances (source: MADDEN [sad. I know])
Anyone else notice that FF Toolbox is trying to have a contest for the Dynasty Fantasty Football World Champion with……144 teams…..LOL!
It’s just a tad bit of a stretch to name a team World Champs when you only accept 144 teams out of thousands/millions…..LOL! If you are going to roll out a “World Championship” competition then there should not be a limited number of teams or at least not limited to 144 teams.
Instead of having a 1 in a million chance, teams have 1 in 144 chance……slightly big difference don’t ya’ think? This is more about giving an owner a chance to “say” that he is a World Champ than it is about naming an actual “World Champ”!
Not impressed……this is nothing more than another fantasy football contest only it is Dynasty instead. You can’t name a World Champ if you are going to limit the contest for such few teams to enter!
I am guessing somebody will one up this pathetic attempt to name a Dynasty Champ!
I give them credit (kind of) for trying but if they are not prepared/ready to roll this out then they should have waited until they were! This is kind of like telling NFL teams that only four of them are eligible for the Superbowl!
Doing something half *ssed will only lead to failure in most cases! Do it right or don’t do it at all! This reminds me of getting a group of 20 or 30 pals together to see who is the better Dynasty owner!
Very Amateur!
Don’t get me wrong……it is a great idea but just call it a Dynasty Championship League not a Dynasty World Championship League because it isn’t! If you roll it out as just another fantasy league it could develop into a possible World Championship League but that certainly is not what it is today but yet that is what it is being called!
There are between 5,000 and 10,000 in wsop, and the reasons for size restrictions weren’t payouts…
As for baseball, that’s a good comparison, but there’s a vetting process for the teams in MLB.
Does FFToolbox have a vetting system?
Exactly my point Jason! It’s not a huge deal but I have seen many other events try to say City, State or World Championship only to limit their participants significantly and they are mocked because the winner is not even that great!
It may not seem like that big of a deal but this league will likely never hold much weight with me because of the way they are attempting to start! There is a big difference between a league with 1200 teams (former World Championship of Fantasy Football) and a league with a measily limit of 144 teams! It is no wonder it filled up so fast! Any Joe Blow could jump in there and have a fairly decent shot at winning! Former WCOFF participants are a bit shocked by a league claiming to be a Championship league.
I totally understand the limited number of participants but to not only limit it to 144 participants but call the winner a World Champion and expect the majority of the fantasy football world to accept that is a bit of a stretch!
Sorry Ryan, I know this doesn’t have anything to do with the story you wrote but I ran across this and wanted to get other thoughts as obviously I am not alone!
But please don’t compare FFB to MLB! You are speaking foolishly now! At least there is an extended process to own a professional sports team rather than to post a comment in a blog and fork over $300! In fantasy sports, you should most definitely have more than a couple hundred teams involved before you crown anyone World Champion!
That league was not well thought through and I now understand why you are supporting it because I now realize that DLF is involved but that still does not chance my mind. Sorry to offend but somebody really messed up here! Just call it a Championship League because it definitely is not a WCL!
Did somebody say Toolbox?
First, we should have respect for this excellent article of Ryan’s, and move this discussion elsewhere so moderators, feel free to move it completely.
Fulltime Fantasy LLC purchased FFToolbox last year after forming the Fantasy Football World Championship. In our first year, we gave away a $200,000 Grand Prize and held our drafts at the Mirage in Las Vegas. The entry fee was $1,600. This year we’re handing out over $600,000, again drafting in Vegas and online.
There are rules however as Ryan alluded to, that govern contests like ours. First, you have to name your prizes and they cannot be influenced by the number of participants. That’s a progressive and against the law, even though some contests out there still do this to this day. Now could we throw a huge chunk of cash in and say we’ll take a 1,000 players? We could have, but we didn’t. Most players are gunshy after the (WCOFF) failures. This contest is Commished by Industry veteran and FSWA Hall of Famer, Emil Kadlec, High Stakes Pro Ian Ritchie and yours truly.
Secondly, the WSOP didn’t get to 5,000-10,000 teams vernight, you know this right? They started with a handful of players back in the 70s and look at it now!
Third: I don’t know about you, but I’ve never seen a dynasty contest with over 24 players in it. Now I don’t know, maybe its out there, but 144 teams in a dynasty contest asking for a $300 commitment every year was pretty bold in its own right.
Now I totally agree with you that to gain the Prestige to go with the name, “World Championship” this contest will need improvements, but we feel this is a great start for this hobby we call Dynasty and this idea was met with alot of support and enthusiasm for the vision.
Lastly, we found players from all over the globe. US, Canada, Germany and Norway. Not bad for a bunch of amateurs.
If you feel it’s not a reflection of the best players in the world, that’s up to you. I feel the best dynasty players in the world heard about our contest because they are always plugged in. They read about us here on DLF (where the diehards hang out) and they jumped in.
This was a beta concept that was proven true. This off-season, we’ll take reservations for teams to see how much MORE interest there is and we will at that time make the appropriate expansion plans.
This will be my only response out of respect for Ryan’s excellent read.
Feedback, good and bad, is always appreciated.
Well Scott….While I agree that things take time to develop and this is not the best place to bring it up….it is most deserving a discussion! The WSOP had over 2100 entries by 1987 without internet and the social media we have today and by 2006….they apparently had over 8500 entries so let’s not try to downplay the involvement of social media and somebody quick to crown a champ just because they have a chip and a chair before anyone else heard about it!
Of course this will be your only response as you are trying to start something before you are ready to roll it out so yes…..I agree…..this is the end to a debate over a pathetic contest! If somebody can get over 2100 entries in 1987 without the media connections we have today, then I would be embarrassed that one of the worlds biggest sports frenzies cannot do the same!
Good intentions…..bad publicity! It holds no weight in my book!
How do we think this plays out in Denver? I think that’s the key here because it affects both teams looking to win this year as well as those drafting high in their respective rookie drafts (and thus may be in that rebuilding mode).
1) Do the Broncos want to go into a Super Bowl-or-Bust season with a tweener back in Hillman, a fragile guy in Moreno, and a rookie in Montee Ball?
This is the key question. I don’t think “cap hit” is that big of deal as far as Moreno goes. The only way that even comes into play is if they cannot get one of the remaining pass rushers to come to Denver to play on an incentive-laden deal.
If they do cut McGahee, you have to imagine if healthy the Chargers will go after him, right? Then how far down does his value go?
McGahee is a guy I’d try to buy low now. It would likely be VERY cheap with big 1 year upside. Either he stays in Denver and has solid RB status, goes to a team like SD where he could vulture TDs or eventually start, or retire.
I think Moreno/Ball are the guys to go after. If you’re a Hillman owner, I hold. Moreno, I sell.
I sold McGahee two years ago to the guy who drafted Hillman and, as a Bronco fan, am happy to have done so! I also passed on Hillman that same year at 1.11 and instead traded my pick for the 2.04 where I drafted the guy I would have taken at 1.11 (Alshon Jeffery) and the 2.08 pick which I again traded.
Denver has already acquired LB Shaun Phillips (former Charger) who they plan to move to DE so I wouldn’t expect they go after another DE.
Not sure I would want to own any back from Denver other than Ball at this point! If you can sell…..I would do so!
Considering McGahee was a Top-10 RB midway through last season, I can’t imagine you were “happy” to have done so. You got lucky he got hurt. Otherwise, there was no way you got nearly the value you could have.
Respectfully, speaking.
I agree with Shady… Yes hes old and no one likes him. Yes he got hurt, but he never cost much to acquire in the first place, so when he did go down its not like you were losing your RB1. McGahee was no slouch in terms of fantasy scoring last year, which is probably the only reason why I’m so interested in how this DEN RB situation plays out.
As i’ve mentioned above, I just feel we may want to wait on deciding which of Moreno/McGahee is the loser and who to get rid of at this point. Ideally for owners, its prob best to have all three of Moreno/McGahee/Ball and just let it play out till the season starts.. I’m not disagreeing with the article by anymeans
Minor nit – Britt’s ACL tear was in the 2011 season, not 2012.
